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Issues of Variability and Uncertainty
| The Federal
Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) contracted
with ICF International to provide an independent
assessment of the U.S. Department
of Housing and Urban Development's (HUD) Government
Sponsored Enterprises (GSE) affordable
housing goals, and to estimate the past and project
the future size of the conventional conforming mortgage
market meeting the affordable housing goals.
The objective of the
research was to illustrate some of the issues relating
to the accuracy and reliability of HUD's estimates
and to provide realistic ranges of the estimates.
ICF International’s analysis found the following
key findings: |
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of Use policy regarding acceptable use of content
on the ICF International Web site. |
There are wide ranges in goal-qualifying market
share estimates. ICF International results indicate
that there is a high degree of uncertainty in goal-qualifying
market share estimates within and across years.
ICF International’s goal-qualifying market
share estimates are lower than HUD’s estimates. The ICF
Best Estimate of historical goal-qualifying market
share is consistently lower than HUD’s estimates.
ICF International's projected market goal shares
are below the new proposed goal levels. Uncertainty
about goal-qualifying market shares indicates that the
market may not produce enough goal-qualifying mortgages
for the GSEs to meet the proposed goal levels on a regular
basis.
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