Summer 2005
The national debate in the United States around energy
has attracted widespread public attention. This focus
is driven by the sustained high gasoline prices that
affect all drivers and that increasingly the public
believes are here to stay. High gasoline prices are not
the only issue. Increased diesel and heating oil prices
also are impacting businesses and consumers.
Growing Global Demands for Oil Products
The 'problem' fundamentally comes down to supply and
demand, except that the supply and demand involved is
a global concern, not just a domestic phenomenon. There
is really nothing terribly brilliant in that conclusion,
but there is a concern that the world, and the United
States, are well on a path that may be very difficult
to correct.
In large measure, the high level of energy prices today
has been driven by concerns about the availability of
spare crude oil production capacity to meet growing global
demands for oil products, and the potential for supply
disruptions in crude production. However, ICF International
believes that in the past year, and over the next roughly
five-year period, the ability to meet forecast demands
for oil will be driven by refinery capacity issues, not
crude availability.
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Spare Crude
Oil Production Capacity
This paper analyzes trends in global
product demands and refinery capacity, and highlights how
the refining 'spare capacity' has eroded, in particular
in the last few years. It identifies the potential need for
additional capacity to meet projected global demands, and
draws conclusions on the global outlook to meet those demands
with expanded refinery investment.
The Capacity Crunch
The growth in global demands for gasoline and diesel, and
the regulatory actions that are requiring lower and lower
sulfur content in these products, is creating a mismatch
between the demand for clean products and the availability
of refining capacity to produce the products from available
crude oils. This 'capacity crunch' will change
the historical playing field for international crude and
product supply and trade, and create strong and sustained
margins for refiners, higher prices, and potentially supply
shortfalls for consumers.
Global Clean Products Outlook
This white paper provides useful insights from ICF International
experts on the following:
- Demand for Petroleum Products
- Supply of Petroleum Products
- Refining Capacity
- Effect of Product Specifications
- Capacity Crunch
- Infrastructure Needs
The paper also reviews implications we predict for the domestic
oil market.
Table of Contents
Introduction |
1 |
Demand for Petroleum Products |
2-3 |
Supply of Petroleum Products |
4 |
Refining Capacity |
4-5 |
Effect of Product Specifications |
6-7 |
Capacity Crunch |
7 |
Infrastructure Needs |
8 |
Conclusions |
8-9 |
About ICF International |
9 |
Contact Information |
9 |
Download full report on The Emerging Oil
Refinery Capacity Crunch: A Global Clean Products Outlook
Learn more about ICF International's fuel consulting services. For inquiries
and brochures, contact us at energy@icfi.com or 1.703.934.3637.
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