U.S.
Emission and Fuel Markets Outlook
ICF International's U.S. Emission
and Fuel Markets Outlook is the only fully integrated view of emission
and fuel markets available. The study provides
market analysis and price projections for all of
the key emission and fuel market benchmarks to
help decision makers understand the new fundamentals
of the increasingly complex energy markets. Companies
can customize their study by purchasing an individual
chapter, multiple chapters, or the entire integrated study. The comprehensive
study is based on more than 15 years of allowance forecasting experience, 30
years of power and fuel market forecasting experience, and ICF's preeminent fuel,
power, and emission forecasting platform—the Integrated
Planning Model (IPM®) .
SO2 Allowance Market
Studies, for Multiple U.S. Electric Utilities
Since 1991, ICF International has conducted extensive
SO2 allowance studies for most of the
largest electric utilities in the United States.
Our studies provide utility planners with a guide
to future allowance prices and allowance price
risk. We estimate SO2 allowance prices
through 2020; predict the effects of economic,
regulatory, and technical uncertainties on prices;
analyze the interrelationship of prices, utility
compliance plans, and emission control costs;
and forecast interregional emission trades, principal
buyers and sellers, and pollution control equipment.
Ozone-Reduction Strategies,
for Southern U.S. Electric Utility
ICF International investigated the costs and economic
impacts of various strategies for reducing ground-level
ozone in the Atlanta, Georgia, metropolitan area.
Strategies investigated included an enhanced vehicle
inspection and maintenance program, reformulated
gasoline, the scrapping of high-emitting vehicles,
the adoption of a low emission vehicles program,
and the application of selective catalytic reduction
to coal-fired power plants. For each alternative,
ICF International estimated reductions in nitrogen
oxides and hydrocarbon emission, and costs. These
estimates were fed into a regional economic model
to determine the impacts in terms of employment
and total economic output.
Emission Control Planning,
for American Electric Power and Tennessee Valley
Authority
ICF International developed and evaluated alternative
capacity, dispatching, fuel choice, and pollution
control plans to meet emission-reduction requirements
for SO2 and NOx. In addition, CO2 emissions also
were evaluated. In addition, ICF International forecasts
future emissions for various alternatives in a
capacity expansion plan it developed.
Salt River Project Navajo
Generating Station Emissions Analysis
On behalf of the Salt River Project and the other
owners of the Navajo Generating Station, ICF International
adapted, evaluated, and applied a deterministic
air-quality simulation model to calculate the
sulfate impacts of this power plant at various
receptor sites in the Grand Canyon. The model
has five principal components: a transport (prognostic)
meteorological model, an Eulerian dispersion model,
a gas-phase chemistry submodel, a cloud chemistry/physics
submodel, and a deposition submodel. Results of
the modeling analysis have been used to determine
improvements in Grand Canyon visibility due to
control of the Navajo Generating Station.
Auto/Oil Air-Quality Improvement
Program, for Coordinating Research Council
Initiated by three automobile companies and 14
petroleum companies, this cooperative research
program is examining emissions from old vehicles
(1983-1985) and newer vehicles (1989) that are
fueled with various blends of reformulated gasoline.
Many of the tasks have focused on improving the
MOBILE and EMFAC emissions models. |
Roadway Intersection Air-Quality
Modeling, for the National Research Council
ICF International is the prime contractor for a project
designed to improve models for estimating microscale
CO concentrations due to mobile source emissions.
Through data analysis, field studies, and model
development, this multistage project is leading
to more accurate predictions of CO concentrations
around intersections at heavily traveled roadways.
Factors investigated have included vehicle class,
vehicle technology, average speed, instantaneous
speed on acceleration, time at or near idle, and
engine catalyst temperature. The overall purpose
is to develop an integrated model that gives reliable
CO impact assessments of major highway projects.
Transportation Conformity
Analyses for Richmond and Hampton Roads Ozone
Non-Attainment Areas, for Virginia Department
of Transportation
ICF International performed the transportation conformity
analysis for the Richmond and Hampton Roads, Virginia,
ozone non-attainment areas. Work completed for
this extensive project included development of
model inputs, calculation of mobile source emission
factors, modeling of regional emissions of VOC
and NOX, and development of graphical summaries
using in-house GIS tools.
Conformity Analyses for the
U.S. Postal Service
ICF International prepared general conformity de
minimis calculations and other air quality
analyses for proposed postal facilities. This
included analyzing mobile and stationary source
emissions resulting from the construction and
operation of proposed facilities, developing spreadsheet
models to estimate potential emissions, and preparing
air quality/conformity reports for each proposed
facility. More than 50 facilities have been addressed
under this effort.
Emission Impacts of Transportation
Control Measures, for Houston-Galveston Area Council
ICF International developed a system for analyzing
the travel activity and emissions impacts of transportation
control measures (TCMs) and other transportation
projects in the update to the 2020 Metropolitan
Transportation Plan. The toolbox system integrates
the regional and subregional analysis capabilities
of the EXPLORA model with a PC-based system that
analyzes the effects of individual TCMs and also
estimates the impacts of implementing groups of
TCMs as "packages." Included is an interactive
database that can be used for organizing and accessing
a wide variety of transportation project data.
PM10 Redesignation for Thurston
County Non-Attainment Area, for the Olympic Air
Pollution Control Authority
The Olympic Air Pollution Control Authority has
been working to produce a formal, EPA-approvable
way to show that Thurston County has attained
the PM10 air quality standards. ICF International
developed a work plan to identify all of the elements
that must be addressed within a maintenance plan
to support a redesignation request under the Clean
Air Act. After developing a technical analysis
protocol to identify emission inventory and modeling
procedures, ICF International began developing a
maintenance plan. This plan provides gridded emission
inventories, dispersion modeling, performance
evaluation, and contingency measures.
Emission Inventory for Maricopa
County Non-Attainment Area, for the Maricopa Association
of Governments
ICF International improved and updated the 1994 base
year regional emission inventory for Maricopa
County, Arizona, in connection with the reclassification
of this area for non-attainment of the PM10 standard.
Improved data for PM2.5 and wood-burning emissions,
and updated spatial surrogate data such as the
amount and distribution of construction areas,
were included in the regional inventory. The improved
data then were entered into a database and used
to compile a regional PM10 emission inventory
following U.S. EPA emission factors and procedures.
UAM Application to State
Implementation Plan Development for Various States
ICF International performed studies involving the
application of the Regional Oxidant Model and
the Urban Airshed Model to Baltimore, Boston,
and Detroit. Issues addressed included the meteorological
conditions leading to ozone episodes; the importance
of the initial and boundary conditions in simulating
these episodes; the importance of horizontal resolution;
and the relative importance of the terrain-modified,
3-D wind field. ICF International found that the
preparation and use of a higher resolution wind
field using the Diagnostic Wind Model provided
superior UAM results over those using ROM-derived
winds. The Baltimore, Boston, and Detroit studies
helped the sponsor states develop their individual
State Implementation Plans.
|
