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2010 and Beyond: A Vision of America's Transportation Future

21st Century Freight Mobility

August 2004

Prepared for the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) by ICF International with DELCAN, Inc.

The U.S. economy is dependent on an efficient and reliable freight transportation system. Our highways, ports, waterways, railways, airports, warehouses, distribution centers, and intermodal and other facilities make up a complex system that shippers rely on to move products to markets. The performance of that system has direct implications for the productivity of the U.S. economy, the costs of goods and services, and the global competitiveness of our industries.

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Table of Contents

 

Table of Contents

2

E.

Executive Summary

3

 

E.1

Freight Transportation and the U.S. Economy

3

 

E.2

A Gathering Storm

4

 

E.3

Growth in the Demand for Freight Transportation

11

 

E.4

The Role of Government

14

1.

Context and Project Overview

16

2.

Freight and the Economy

18

 

2.1

Freight Transportation and Economic Productivity

19

 

2.2

Examples of System Strain and Potential Degradation

24

3.

Capacity and Performance Challenges

29

 

3.1

Highway Capacity Issues

30

 

3.2

Rail Capacity Issues

34

 

3.3

Water Freight Capacity Issues

36

 

3.4

Air Cargo Capacity Issues

40

 

3.5

Summary of Freight Transportation Capacity Issues

41

4.

Expected Increases in the Demand for Freight Transport

43

 

4.1

Demand Factors

43

 

4.2

Demand Forecasts

50

 

4.3

Summary of Forecasts and Interpretation of Trends

54

5.

Possible Types of Government Responses

62

 

5.1

Some Fundamental Guiding Principles

63

 

5.2

A Spectrum of Options

64

Appendix A. Information on Pipelines

67

Appendix B: A Review of Relevant Policies and Policy Research

68

 

B.1

Overview of Existing Laws, Regulations, and Financing Mechanisms

68

 

B.2

Recent Policy Recommendations and Developments

70

 

B.3

Recent Legislation

75

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