Carbon Tools

ICF leads the way in tool development on climate-related issues. Our portfolio of off-the-shelf tools and models cover all aspects of the carbon life cycle from emissions modeling to project investment, and from carbon pricing to risk management. These well-respected tools and models have been adapted for both public and private sector clients around the world, highlighting the broad applicability of each tool. Our in-depth perspective on climate change science and economics and our familiarity with tool development means that if a new tool or model needs to be developed, ICF can provide cost-effective and timely development.

Since 1987, ICF International has been at the forefront of preparing leading-edge climate change technical and strategic analyses, and building real-world management tools. Our proprietary tools include:

• CPM™
  Carbon Planning Model

• GEMS®—
  Greenhouse Gas Emissions Management System

• GHGPortfolio™

• InCaP™—
  International Carbon Pricing Tool

• K-PRISM®—
  Kyoto Project Risk Management System

• RESPIRE®—
  Rating and Evaluation System for Prioritising Investments in Reducing Emissions

• Inventory Tools—
  Climate CHECK, CLIP

• Other Tools—
  Vintaging Model, AHEF, MAC

ICF’s familiarity with climate change science, climate change policies around the world, economic and market analysis, and emission reduction strategies enables us to provide integrated and holistic services to clients concerned with the issue of climate change. Learn more about ICF's energy market modeling tools.

Selected Projects and Applications

Carbon Planning Model (CPM™)

ICF International has developed the Carbon Planning Model (CPM™), a market scenario analysis tool for modeling carbon market prices based upon fluctuations in supply, with feedback loops that fluctuate demand as a function of carbon prices and marginal abatement costs. CPM™ allows companies to quantify their potential compliance costs (economic risk) based on user-defined scenarios. Variables within the CPM™ for user manipulation include eligible offset project types, volume of offset credits available for each eligible offset project type, transaction costs, and comparative offset scenario overlay analysis.

Under the Regulatory Framework for Air Emissions enacted by the Government of Canada in April 2007, companies are required to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions intensity by 18 percent for a 2006 baseline by 2010 and continue to make intensity improvements of 2 percent each year until 2015. The government is keen to see investment in carbon abatement stay in Canada. As a result, it has limited Canadian access to international credits for compliance purposes to 10 percent of the capped emitters obligation and has focused on the development of a robust domestic offsets market as the primary compliance option. Consequently, future carbon market prices in the domestic Canadian market are of significant interest to companies with Canadian operations in the capped sectors.

Kyoto Project Risk Management System (K-PRISM®)

ICF International has developed a proprietary decision-making support system that addresses and quantifies the risks associated with Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI) projects, based on a series of simple questions. At the heart of the Kyoto Project Risk Management System (K-PRISM®) is a Microsoft Excel-based, systematic tool that evaluates and ranks CDM or JI projects in a portfolio.

The system includes a review, assessment, rating, and ranking of both CDM and JI projects, based on their likelihood to deliver Certified Emission Reductions (CER) or Emission Reduction Units (ERU), a risk-weighted estimation of the number of CERs or ERUs delivered, and a Net Present Value (NPV) of the portfolio's discounted worth. The output includes an assessment of project-level risk for four distinct elements:

• Kyoto Process Risk—likelihood of CER issuance under the CDM Executive Board (EB) or ERU approval by the JI Supervisory Committee
  
  
• Project Technology Risk—likelihood of project technology performance
  
  
• Project Proponents Risk—likelihood of successful performance by project proponents
  
  
• Country (project location) Risk—
  likelihood of approval of project by the Designated National Authority (DNA) or JI Focal Point and accounting for country risk

Individual risk ratings are compiled for each project and for each of the four elements based on the user input/selection of responses to queries.

Review EcoSecurities’ CDM and JI Project Portfolio. ICF International was selected by ABN AMRO Rothschild to review EcoSecurities’ CDM and JI project portfolio and provide an independent expert opinion of the business plan of EcoSecurities as part of its plans for a stock market flotation in December 2005. Our assignment included the following activities: 1) risk-based rating and ranking of the projects, 2) document review and analysis of a sampling of the portfolio of projects, and 3) site visit and technical review of a further sampling of projects.

Review of SwissRe’s CDM Portfolio. SwissRe hired ICF International to review a portfolio of 60 CDM projects located in Latin America, Asia, and the Pacific Region, encompassing various technologies. This assignment was carried out using our risk evaluation tool.

CDM Due Diligence. For a confidential industrial company, ICF International performed due diligence activities (desk review of technical, operational, and commercial aspects; review of CDM documentation; analysis of present and future regulatory context) for two of its most significant CDM projects—in terms of expected delivered Carbon Emission Reductions (CER)—registered by the CDM Executive Board (EB) so far.

Rating and Evaluation System
for Prioritising Investments in Reducing Emissions (RESPIRE®)

ICF International has developing a Rating and Evaluation System for Prioritising Investments in Reducing Emissions (RESPIRE®). Our proprietary tool assists managers in prioritizing their energy and carbon saving options. RESPIRE analyses the variables that determine the value and feasibility of an energy or carbon-saving project in the real-world commercial environment:

• Capital costs
• Fixed and variable running costs
• Implementation risks
• Delivery risks
• Management time demands
• Avoided fuel and power costs
• Carbon value released
• Project life cycle
• Project phasing
• Reputational value
  

International Carbon Pricing Tool (InCaP™)

InCaP™, ICF International's International Carbon Pricing Tool, assists decision makers with assessing financial risks related to current and potential future carbon constraints. Using a number of customizable features, InCaP estimates the market price of carbon credits, information that can guide clients to a beneficial strategy for carbon trading in the future. InCaP provides forecasts of the average annual market price of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission instruments—allowances and emission reduction credits—for a broad range of user-defined supply and demand scenarios covering the time horizon from 2008 through 2027.

Our proprietary InCaP tool combines state-of-the-art, bottom-up analysis of factors that will impact future carbon markets with a user-friendly input format and straightforward, easy-to-understand results. To develop forecasts of carbon prices, users select and/or define values for 10 key variables, including the countries and regions participating in emissions trading, the sectors receiving caps under domestic trading requirements, emission targets for individual countries, natural gas price forecasts, and alternative economic growth scenarios.

Assessing the Future Value-at-Stake Under Carbon Constraints and Designing a Corporate Climate Strategy. ICF International helped a European gas company assess its future carbon exposure under different carbon constraint scenarios, from a financial and a reputation perspective, looking at a post-2020 time horizon using ICF's InCaP Tool. In particular, ICF used its experience of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and its modeling capabilities to project future breadth of the scheme and levels of carbon prices likely to be experienced. ICF identified and analyzed a range of different internal and external mitigation options and proposed selected measures and implementation planning aimed at lowering costs and risks, and enhancing commercial opportunities.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Management System (GEMS®)

ICF International’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Management System (GEMS®) is a concept and framework for managing economic emission reductions, not just an inventory tool. GEMS enables the user to directly evaluate alternative lower emission technologies and track changes to manage risk and evaluate potential GHG reduction investments. GEMS provides a unique approach where emission sources are drilled-down to the technology level to provide a Tier IV inventory. GEMS is API Compendium compatible and is completely transparent with respect to data and calculations. It covers methane (CH₄), carbon dioxide (CO₂), and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions from the natural gas and petroleum industries. The powerful features of GEMS are already being used by several large natural gas companies.

GHG Emissions Management Protocol Development and Emissions Reduction Opportunities. ICF assisted Duke in preparing its GHG Emissions Management Protocol to estimate and value its GHG emissions assets. This protocol comprises part of GEMS®. ICF International recommended optimal protocol elements and prioritized (by cost and potential scale) internal and external emissions reduction options. ICF then developed the Duke Energy Protocol by proposing a system of industry-standard best practices for GHG estimation and measurement. The Protocol was implemented throughout its electric generation, merchant power, and natural gas gathering, processing, transmission, and distribution operations. We prepared its fugitive and vent methane emissions protocols anddesigned a GHG emissions management and database program. ICF is supporting the company to develop its emissions management strategy that minimizes its risks and maximizes competitive options.

GHGPortfolio™

GHGPortfolio evaluates current and prospective greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction projects on the basis of specific and highly stringent policy and project risk factors, such as:

• Baseline specification and additionality
  
• Direct and indirect emission impacts
  
• Monitoring and verification procedures
  
• Information management and reporting systems
  
• Legal entitlement to emission reduction benefits

GHGPortfolio's evaluation criteria capture and reflect project attributes that have been identified internationally as essential to ensuring that GHG emission reduction projects have the greatest probability of achieving net environmental benefits. It highlights strengths and/or weaknesses in individual emission reduction activities, as well as in an entire portfolio of GHG abatement projects. GHGPortfolio brings analytical rigor to the evaluation of how real, measurable, and quantifiable GHG emission reductions might be in a carbon-constrained future. It establishes a robust ranking across a company’s emission reduction projects, allows comparisons to be made between a company’s portfolio of GHG and similar projects contained in ICF International’s database of emission reduction projects, and provides a foundation for maximizing the financial value of individual projects and an entire portfolio of projects.

Inventory Tools

Emissions Inventories for U.S. States, Schools, and National Parks

ICF developed Climate CHange Emission Calculator Kit (Climate CHECK) for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to guide high school students though the process of a greenhouse gas emissions inventory of their school and the Climate Leadership In Parks (CLIP) tool for the National Parks Service to enable national parks to easily complete an emissions inventory.

Climate CHECK. In an effort to provide a climate change-based educational resource for high school students, EPA’s Office of Atmospheric Programs released the Climate CHange Emission Calculator Kit (Climate CHECK). Climate CHECK is a Microsoft Excel-based kit available on EPA’s climate change Web site that educates high school students about climate change drivers and science by equipping them with the tools needed to understand, estimate, and mitigate their high school’s greenhouse gas emissions. The kit consists of three sections that provide 1) background information on greenhouse gases, the greenhouse effect, and climate change; 2) calculators students can use to estimate and inventory their high school’s greenhouse gas emissions; and 3) resources and planning tools that students can use to develop an action plan for reducing emissions.

Climate Friendly Parks (CFP) Program. The CFP Program stems from a partnership between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Park Service and works to educate, communicate, and mitigate climate change and air pollution by:

• Educating every park employee about climate change and air pollution and the role each person can take in addressing the problem
• Identifying a strategy for each CFP to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and criteria air pollutants (CAP) in order to help mitigate the effects of climate change and air pollution
• Empowering park employees to communicate to the public how climate change and air pollution affect their park’s natural resources, how the park is dealing with these effects, and the difference each person can make in being stewards of our climate and other natural resources

The CFP Program accomplishes these goals through workshops, outreach materials, and the Climate Leadership in Parks (CLIP) Tool. The CLIP Tool is a user-friendly, Microsoft Excel-based tool that consists primarily of two modules. The first module inventories the park’s GHG emissions and CAPs while the second module walks park staff through calculators and other resources that help them develop a Climate Action Plan aimed at reducing their GHGs and CAPs.

State Inventory Tools and Guidance, State and Local Climate Outreach Program. ICF has developed a suite of Microsoft Excel-based tools that help U.S. states determine their greenhouse gas output from different sectors. These tools automate the inventory methodologies prepared for the Greenhouse Gas Committee of the Emission Inventory Improvement Program (EIIP). Working in conjunction with experts on the respective sectors, ICF has created tools for the following sectors:

• CO₂ from Fossil Fuel Combustion
• Stationary Non-CO₂
• Mobile Non-CO₂
• Coal Mining
• Oil and Natural Gas Activities
• Industrial Processes
• Agriculture
• Land-Use Change and Forestry
• Municipal Solid Waste
• Waste Combustion

This work involved linking default data to methodology provided by the sector experts and providing Visual Basic programming to create a user-friendly environment and export the results to a Synthesis Tool. ICF also is engaged in the design of the Projection Tool that calculates state-by-state GHG emission projections for the years 2001-2020. Using emission data from the State Inventory Tool, national emission projections, population projections, and energy consumption projections, this tool will help states quickly project emissions using default data while also allowing maximum flexibility and the incorporation of state-provided data.

Other Tools

Vintaging Model. Since its creation in 1985, ICF has developed and supported U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Vintaging Model. This model tracks and analyzes the stock of equipment containing ozone-depleting substances (ODS) and ODS substitutes over time. and provides a framework for evaluating the implications of alternative strategies for reducing ODS use. It estimates the annual chemical emissions from six different industrial sectors that have historically used ozone depleting substances in their products: 1) refrigeration and air conditioning, 2) foams, 3) aerosols, 4) solvents, 5) fire extinguishing, and 6) sterilization. Within these sectors, there are 50 independently modeled end uses.

The model requires information on the market growth for each of the end uses, as well as a history of the market transition from ODS to alternatives. As ODS are phased out, a percentage of the market share originally filled by the ODS is allocated to each of its substitutes. The Vintaging Model models the consumption of chemicals based on estimates of the quantity of equipment or products sold, serviced, and retired each year, and the amount of the chemical required to manufacture and/or maintain the equipment. The Vintaging Model makes use of this market information to build an inventory of the in-use stocks of the equipment in each of the end uses. Emissions are estimated by applying annual leak rates, service emission rates, and disposal emission rates to each population of equipment. By aggregating the emission and consumption output from the different end uses, the model produces estimates of total annual use and emissions of each chemical. For the purpose of projecting the use and emissions of chemicals into the future, the available information about probable evolutions of the end-use market is incorporated into the model.

Atmospheric Health Effect Framework (AHEF) Model. ICF developed and maintains the AHEF Model for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The AHEF Model is an internationally recognized tool to estimate ultra violet (UV) induced health effects that may result from stratospheric ozone depletion. The AHEF combines satellite ozone measurements with projected emissions of ozone depleting substances (ODS) to estimate future ozone concentrations and associated changes in UV and health effects (i.e., melanoma and non-melanoma incidence and mortality and cataract incidence). The AHEF is used to estimate the change in health effects resulting from various ODS policy scenarios, to perform sensitivity analyses, and to compare and evaluate results generated by similar models. ICF International has used the AHEF to examine the public health impacts as well as atmospheric impacts of aviation, methyl bromide use, National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS), and halon decommissioning strategies.

Domestic and International Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) Curves for High Global Warming Potential Gases, Multiple Clients. ICF has more than a decade of experience developing national and global marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves for greenhouse gases (GHG). For the past eight years, ICF has been assisting the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in developing international MACs for non-CO₂ GHGs and integrating results with models used by economic modelers. Specifically, ICF has developed international MACs for the following sectors: coal mining, natural gas systems, petroleum systems, landfilling of wastes, livestock manure management systems, nitric acid production, adipic acid production, semiconductor manufacturing, magnesium production, primary aluminum production, electric power systems, HCFC-22 production, refrigeration, air conditioning, aerosols, fire extinguishing, solvents, and foams. For these sectors, we developed a detailed MAC for the United States and MACs for specific countries and regions. For each mitigation option, ICF evaluated the capital and operation costs of the technology or the benefits in term of cost savings, and the emission reductions.

ICF has developed international MACs under separate contracts to the U.S. EPA, the International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme (IEAGHG), and recently for the New Zealand Ministry for the Environment. The results of ICF’s analysis for the EPA can be seen in the report, Global Mitigation of Non-CO₂ Greenhouse Gases. An example MAC analysis at the local/regional level can be seen in ICF’s final report prepared for the California Energy Commission, Emission Reduction Opportunities for Non-CO₂ Greenhouse Gases in California.

Government of Ireland’s Strategy Under the Kyoto Protocol. During the Irish Presidency of the European Union in 2005, ICF supported development of Ireland’s strategy for meeting its Kyoto Protocol commitments. Our analysis helped the government understand the tradeoff between competitiveness, equity considerations among sectors, and economic efficiency. Our approach involved calculating the likely distance to target in 2008-2012, assessing the impacts of policies and measures to reduce emissions, and developing an Ireland-specific marginal abatement cost (MAC) to help determine how responsibility for closing the gap should be allocated to sectors participating in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), those sectors outside the EU ETS, and to government purchase of carbon credits.

Examination of Options to Reduce Carbon Footprint. For a major electric utility, ICF advised on how to quantify GHG emissions and developed methodology for assessing options to reduce emissions. The methodology was devised as a hands-on template to allow any users to evaluate the full slate of emission reduction options, both on-system and off-system. The analytical tool could be used to construct a company-wide marginal abatement cost curve incorporating the actual costs and quantity of emissions reduced from each option.

Carbon Footprint Analysis, News Corporation. ICF International is involved in the design, analysis, and implementation of a GHG footprint for News Corporation, one of the world’s largest media companies. The inventory served as the foundation for the company’s recently announced plan to be carbon neutral by 2010. The assignment included: (1) assisting News Corporation in understanding implications for its operations of GHG reporting principles according to corporate best practices, such as those derived from the World Resources Institute (WRI)/World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) GHG Protocol Initiative (“GHG Protocol”); (2) assisting News Corporation in establishing the key elements of its GHG and energy reporting process; (3) defining a methodological framework based on detailed analysis of representative operations at News Corporation; and (4) implementing the defined methodological framework to News Corporation global operations and aggregating the global CO₂, GHG, and energy data collected through the designed framework.

J.D. Irving GHG Emissions Inventory Assessment Revisions and Protocol Development. ICF International is working with J.D. Irving to meet its GHG, NO_x, and SO₂ emissions management goals for the company's Irving Forest Products division. The Forest Products division manufactures pulp, tissue, paper and corrugated medium from its six pulp mill operations in New Brunswick (4), Ontario (1), and the United States. ICF International is helping the company develop a baseline (1990) and annual inventories (years 1991 through present) for GHG and current year baselines for NO_x and SO₂ emissions given the probability of their near-term regulation. ICF International will develop a multi-pollutant protocol for efficient and accurate quantification of emissions.