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WASHINGTON, DC, August 22, 2003 -
ICF Consulting released an issue paper Transmission
Grid Frailty? Blackout Potential Not Limited to the
Northeast Quadrant concluding that the Northeast
electric transmission system is not alone in its weakness
and recommended measures to strengthen it. To diagnose
the problems with the grid, ICF Consulting used a detailed
model along with publicly available data to forecast
the number of hours in which demand in 14 states or
regions would cause congestion in the interconnected
system in 2004.
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"The results of our analysis are cause for concern,"
said Elliot Roseman, Principal with ICF Consulting's Energy
practice. "The combination of an already overtaxed grid,
electric demand that increases daily, aging transmission lines,
lack of transmission investment, and regulatory uncertainty
and lack of national reliability standards creates a scenario
where future blackouts are increasingly likely. Everyone in
the United States is now aware of the problems with the Northeast
grid. However, our forecast of regional congestion in 2004
reveals that California is right on the heels of New England
in terms of congestion. We forecast that the New England region's
demand will cause congestion 96 percent of the time and California
will cause congestion 95 percent of the time," said Roseman.
The paper quantifies the relative susceptibility of specific
regions to transmission congestion and possible blackouts.
ICF Consulting offers recommendations to address this and
other issues to improve reliability of the power grid. To
learn more about the competing pressures of grid operations,
why containment failed, and recommendations on preventing
future cascade occurrences, visit ICF Consulting's special
section on Understanding
the 2003 Northeast Power Outage, Cascading Blackouts, &
the Transmission Grid.
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ICF International (Nasdaq: ICFI) partners with government and commercial clients to deliver consulting services and technology solutions in the energy, environment, transportation, social programs, defense, and homeland security markets. The firm combines passion for its work with industry expertise and innovative analytics to produce compelling results throughout the entire program life cycle, from analysis and design through implementation and improvement. Since 1969, ICF has been serving government at all levels, major corporations, and multilateral institutions. More than 1,800 employees serve these clients worldwide. ICF’s Web site is http://www.icfi.com.
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For Immediate Release
Contact: Douglas Beck
1.703.934.3820
Contact: Elliot Roseman
1.240.731.1436 (cell)
1.703.934.3859 (office)
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