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New
Report Analyses European Power, Fuels,
and
Emissions
Market
Outlook
Until 2020
LONDON, UK, May 11, 2006 – Recent
volatility in the price of European Union allowances (EUA)
has led to tough questioning about the fundamental drivers
of business opportunities in the European power and fuels
markets. Today, at Carbon
Expo 2006 in Cologne, Germany,
ICF International announces the forthcoming launch of
its new study entitled, European
Power, Fuels, and Emissions Outlook 2006: An Analysis
of Commercial Implications for Market Participants,
which identifies several specific categories of market
opportunities.
"The recent
emissions market dynamics, resulting in
declining power and share prices for European utilities,
have emphasized the importance of market participants taking
an integrated view of the analytics underpinning the power,
fuels, transmission, and emissions markets," says
Abyd Karmali, Managing Director of ICF's
London office. "By
using scenarios that take consistent views on fuels and
emissions, we identify several value-creating opportunities
for participants in the European power sector in a market
environment characterized by even greater uncertainty about
the price of EUA, a higher band for crude oil prices, and
heightened concerns about energy security."
As with
the 2005-2007 phase of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme,
where we forecasted lower than the consensus estimates
for prices of 05-07 vintage EUA, our updated forecast for
2008-2012 anticipates that the price for 08-12 vintage
EUA will be significantly lower than the forward curve
has suggested in recent months, but that carbon will still
have material impacts for players in the electricity, gas,
and coal markets.
"Three main threads are carried through
our analysis," says
Kim Keats, an ICF power and fuels expert in ICF's
London office. “First, new plant decisions will be
dominated by future CO2 allocation rules, and
developments in CO2 and natural gas prices,
resulting in significant financial opportunities for environmental
retrofits at existing coal-fired power plants, particularly
in Eastern Europe. Second, decisions to review the closure
of existing nuclear plants and promote carbon capture and
storage technology will require premium payments to reflect
security of supply and CO2 concerns to be competitive.
Third, we identify specific opportunities for investments
in transmission capacity that will help optimise the European
transmission network and promote integration of renewable
power."
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ICF International (Nasdaq: ICFI) partners with government and commercial clients to deliver consulting services and technology solutions in the energy, environment, transportation, social programs, defense, and homeland security markets. The firm combines passion for its work with industry expertise and innovative analytics to produce compelling results throughout the entire program life cycle, from analysis and design through implementation and improvement. Since 1969, ICF has been serving government at all levels, major corporations, and multilateral institutions. More than 1,800 employees serve these clients worldwide. ICF’s Web site is http://www.icfi.com.
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For Immediate Release
United Kingdom Contact: Abyd
Karmali
Tel: 44 (0) 20.7092.3005
United States Contact: Douglas
Beck
Tel: 1.703.934.3820
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