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FAIRFAX, VA, August 15, 2003 -
ICF Consulting has released an issue paper titled Power
Crisis: The Omission of Transmission addressing
yesterday's power outage. This paper outlines some of
the causes leading to the problem and offers informed
recommendations for future actions. While the specific
cause of the outage is still being determined, the signs
of substantial deterioration in the power grid have
been building for years. Among the signs are the following:
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- The cost of transmission congestion in the Pennsylvania-New
Jersey-Maryland power pool (PJM) serving the mid-Atlantic
region has quintupled in the past two years, reaching $271
million in 2002. Nationwide, the figure is in the billions.
Thus, the wholesale cost of power in 2002 was several percentage
points higher than it would have been without congestion.
Importantly, this trend points to the increasing stress
and loading of the transmission system that leads eventually
to a breakdown.
- According to the North American Electric Reliability Council
(NERC), power deals that could not be fulfilled due to transmission
constraints increased fivefold to nearly 1,500 instances
in 2002 compared to 300 in 1998.
What this all shows is that transmission system operators
have for years been pushing the system to its limits. One
reason is that transmission has been planned and approved
largely on a utility- and state-specific basis, without sufficient
regional coordination. A second reason is that utilities and
independent power producers in many parts of the country have
been dueling over who will build new transmission. Finally,
there is no accepted standard for transmission reliability.
What are ICF Consulting's recommendations for the future?
Among them are the following:
- A Federal "Marshall Plan" to build or upgrade
transmission capacity in the most congested corridors in
the country. The argument is as strong for doing this as
it was for the Federal Highway System.
- Federal legislation to provide for "backstop"
authority to build new lines if states or regional organizations
defer in building lines that the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission (FERC) or U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) believes
are necessary.
- Greater regulatory certainty and regional responsibility
to assess the need for new transmission.
To learn more about the competing pressures of grid operations,
why containment failed, and recommendations on preventing
future cascade occurrences, visit ICF Consulting's special
section on Understanding
the 2003 Northeast Power Outage, Cascading Blackouts, &
the Transmission Grid.
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ICF International (Nasdaq: ICFI) partners with government and commercial clients to deliver consulting services and technology solutions in the energy, environment, transportation, social programs, defense, and homeland security markets. The firm combines passion for its work with industry expertise and innovative analytics to produce compelling results throughout the entire program life cycle, from analysis and design through implementation and improvement. Since 1969, ICF has been serving government at all levels, major corporations, and multilateral institutions. More than 1,800 employees serve these clients worldwide. ICF’s Web site is http://www.icfi.com.
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For Immediate Release
Contact: Douglas Beck
1.703.934.3820
Contact: Elliot Roseman
1.240.731.1436 (cell)
1.703.934.3859 (office)
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