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FAIRFAX, VA, April 8, 1999 - The ICF Kaiser Consulting
Group, an operating unit of ICF Kaiser International, Inc. (NYSE:
ICF), today announced that its energy consulting practice has
released its 1999 SO2 Allowance Market
Outlook. This year's study will be of interest to a growing
audience, because a larger group of coal-fired generators will
be impacted by Phase II of the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency's SO2 Allowance Program, which goes into effect
in the year 2000. The study forecasts allowance prices through
the year 2010 under alternative economic and regulatory scenarios
including potential new air regulations to control NOX,
fine particulates, and carbon. The study also examines allowance
price trends throughout Phase I and explains where ICF sees
the market heading into Phase II.
"For years, ICF has been bullish on SO2 allowance
values," said John Blaney, ICF Kaiser Consulting Group
Senior Vice President and Head of the Energy Consulting Practice's
private-sector environmental initiatives. "We have consistently
forecasted that the allowance price heading into Phase II
would be approximately $200/ton, even when prices were below
$75 per ton in the spring of 1996. Given current market conditions,
it is clear that our forecasts have been right on the money.
Our success reflects our steadfast attention to the economic
fundamentals driving the interplay of environmental, electricity,
and fuel markets."
Given the large regulatory uncertainties surrounding new
air regulations to control the emissions of fine particulates,
NOX, and carbon, ICF also conducted a comprehensive
set of sensitivity forecasts based on these possible regulatory
scenarios. The study finds that the timing of regulatory initiatives
is as important as their impact. This is particularly true
in the cases of a potential reduction of the SO2
cap to achieve compliance with the fine particulate National
Ambient Air-Quality Standards (NAAQS) in the mid-term, and
the prospect of a carbon cap in the longer term. The study
reports that a reduction in the SO2 cap to achieve
the 1997 fine particulate NAAQS could more than double future
SO2 allowance prices. In contrast, a climate change
policy –such as proposed under the Kyoto Protocol –could
lead to zero SO2 prices in the long term. The study
analyzes the magnitude of these impacts and their effects
on the variance of future allowance prices.
The SO2 Allowance Market Outlookis the
sister edition to the recently released Ozone Transport
Region: NOx Allowance Study, which details
the current market for NOx in the northeast and
provides ICF's official 1999 forecast of Ozone Transport Region
NOx allowance prices. That study is targeted to
direct participants in the NOx market and to those
in the electricity markets within the Ozone Transport Region,
as well as in its surrounding regions.
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ICF International (Nasdaq: ICFI) partners with government and commercial clients to deliver consulting services and technology solutions in the energy, environment, transportation, social programs, defense, and homeland security markets. The firm combines passion for its work with industry expertise and innovative analytics to produce compelling results throughout the entire program life cycle, from analysis and design through implementation and improvement. Since 1969, ICF has been serving government at all levels, major corporations, and multilateral institutions. More than 1,800 employees serve these clients worldwide. ICF’s Web site is http://www.icfi.com.
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For Immediate Release
Contact: Douglas Beck
1.703.934.3820
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