Energy & Resources Publications
2009 Publications
Black to Green: Carbon Debate and Beyond
Published in
HIMAL Southasian , June 2009. Ananth Chikkatur of ICF International and Sunita Dubey of GroundWork USA provide a broad overview of the energy challenges in South Asia in the context of a changing climate due to global warming. They explain that South Asia’s energy consumption will rise in the future, but that an energy-secure future involves not only getting access to energy resources, but also dealing with a whole spectrum of increasingly pressing environmental and ecological issues. Climate change impacts such as alterations in the Himalayan system and increasing severe weather events (floods, droughts, coastal inundation) could be severe and will adversely affect the large population in South Asia. The article concludes by providing a range of policy options and recommendations, and notes that rather than the current piecemeal approach, an integrated energy and environment policy needs to be devised and implemented. By getting the energy policy ‘right,’ the authors expect that the policies in other spheres will also fall into place.
Building Portfolio Performance Improvement - How Did We Miss This After 30 Years of Energy Efficiency?
Webinar Presentation, January 2009, Energy & Environment Intelligence Briefing. In the U.S., we can point to a 30-year history of demand side management, voluntary market transformation programs, and technology research that have made us an apparent leader in building energy efficiency. After hundreds of millions of dollars of investment, there are still few good answers for large building portfolios where sustainability, carbon mitigation, or reduced costs are the end game. ICF corporate sustainability expert Don Anderson takes a look at how we got here and what options are emerging for large organizations.
Carbon Funds Outlook
Carbon funds have become an important player in the carbon markets over the past few years and have experienced considerable growth. However, the amount of capital secured or targeted by funds created over the last two years appears to be slowing down. Indeed, the lack of clarity on the post 2012 climate policy framework at international and domestic levels, increasing competition on the buyers’ side, and the decline in the number of large and low risk Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects create a challenging and uncertain environment for new entrants in the carbon finance community. This situation will likely be exacerbated by the credit crisis, which could reduce the amount of capital available to invest in carbon credit projects and increase the cost of capital available. But current financial difficulties can also create opportunities for some of the existing carbon funds that can benefit from a competitive advantage vis-à-vis other investors. This paper aims to address these issues through detailed analysis of the current market context and the historical evolution of carbon funds.
Clean Cities Supported by ICF International
Published in
Southeastern Fuels Fix , Summer 2009, by Stacy Noblet of ICF International. Working with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, ICF has supported the U.S. Department of Energy's Clean Cities initiative since 1997. This article summarizes ICF's role in providing technical expertise, program support, and research capabilities toward the advancement of alternative fuels, advanced vehicles, and petroleum reduction strategies.
Crisis Capital: Volatile Markets Call for Alternative Financial Models
Published in
Public Utilities Fortnightly , September 2009, by Anant Kumar and Elliot Roseman of ICF International. This article demonstrates that establishing the cost of capital for electric utilities and independent power producers is a challenging undertaking, especially under volatile financial market conditions such as we have recently experienced. This article also discusses the recent history of financing available to the electric power sector, and the divergence of costs between different players. It further summarizes the primary approaches and issues associated with determining both the cost of debt and cost of equity. Finally, this article proposes a methodology to develop reasonable estimates of financing costs.
Energy Efficiency--The First Fuel in the Race for a Stable Climate
Enery and Environmental Intelligence Webcast, October 2009. Energy efficiency is acknowledged as a key to meeting the climate challenge. But how big a role can it play? How will efficiency play—or not play—in carbon markets? With what policies are state, regional, and federal climate policies tapping efficiency? What are the key analytical issues? This webinar, featuring ICF Vice President Bill Prindle, explores answers to these questions.
Engaging Employees in Corporate Environmental Performance Improvement Programs
Webinar Presentation, April 2009, Energy and Environmental Intelligence Briefing. ICF International's Jeff Gibbons presents specific tactics for engaging employees and building engineering staff in sustainability initiatives, and the importance of having a formalized program to help ensure behavioral and cultural change. Along with best practices in training and change management, ICF demonstrates the benefits of tools such as
Do Your Part! , deployed to expedite program implementation and measurable achievement as part of corporate sustainability programs.
Framework for Analyzing Separation Distances Between Transmission Lines in Wyoming
August 2009. Under contract to the Wyoming Infrastructure Authority (www.wyia.org ), ICF International performed an independent study of factors affecting the separation distance between multiple electric transmission lines proposed for sharing common corridors in Wyoming. Meeting the increasing demand for renewable energy in the West will require constructing long-distance transmission lines to bring remote renewable power to distant load centers. However, an accepted framework to systematically address the competing separation issues of power system reliability, costs, and environmental and land-use constraints is lacking. To address this need, ICF developed an analytical framework for determining the appropriate separation distance for transmission lines in Wyoming which can also be applied to other western states.
From Main Street to Green Street: LEED Certification for Sustainable Neighborhoods
Published in Main Street News , April 2009, by Therese Dorau of ICF International. One of the U.S. Green Building Council’s newest Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) programs, LEED for Neighborhoods (ND) combines aspects of green construction practices and community development theories to encourage the creation of mixed-use, livable, environmentally sustainable neighborhoods. This article discusses the LEED-ND certification program and its specific relevance to small businesses and existing “main street” commercial districts. Specific opportunities and challenges of implementing certification are addressed, and the LEED-ND program is seen in action through two case studies.
Greenhouse Gas Legislation: Adapting to a Tsunami of Change
This July 2009 paper by ICF International highlights The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, more commonly known as the Waxman-Markey bill, which has been passed the U.S. House of Representatives and is now being taken up in the U.S. Senate. While some provisions may change before it’s signed into law, the basic provisions are likely to remain and there is no doubt that it represents the most sweeping change to hit the power sector - perhaps ever. The paper discusses the challenges posed by the legislation and how a corporate compliance strategy can help companies prepare.
ICF International's Insights on Waxman-Markey and Climate Change Legislation
Webcast, September 2009. The House has passed Waxman-Markey, the Senate will have draft climate legislation squarely on its docket in September, and the December Copenhagen meeting is approaching fast. What could be the impact of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) legislation on your company? As Congress returns from August recess, Joel Bluestein, Steve Fine, and Chris MacCracken of ICF International provided the latest status and developments on federal GHG legislation, and shared ICF’s analysis and commentary on likely impacts and outcomes.
ICF International's Update on U.S. GHG Regulation
Webinar Presentation, March 2009, Energy & Environment Intelligence Briefing. For a time, it seemed that the economic downturn would derail federal action on greenhouse gas (GHG) legislation, but the new administration, state and regional activity, and industry actions all point towards continuing if not accelerating progress on regulation of U.S. GHG emissions. ICF Vice President Joel Bluestein provides an update on regulatory actions at the state, regional, federal, and international levels, including new cap and trade programs, regulations under existing law, potential federal legislation and other related developments. He also discusses ICF’s outlook on the potential implications of these programs on the development of regional, federal, and international emission trading markets.
ICF International's Winter 2009-10 Natural Gas Markets Outlook
Webinar Presentation, November 2009, Energy & Environment Intelligence Briefing. Kevin Petak, ICF vice president for gas market modeling, provides an overview of ICF's winter outlook for natural gas markets, the effect of new shale resources, the potential effect of an economic recovery, and the outlook for the remainder of this year and next year.
ICF Overview of Proposed EPA GHG Reporting Rule
July 2009 Webinar, ICF Energy and Environmental Intelligence Briefing. On March 11, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) posted the signed proposed rule for Monitoring and Reporting of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this webinar, Joel Bluestein of ICF International provided an overview of the proposed requirements, what facilities will be affected, what gases will be included, and what measurement protocols will be required or available.
ICF's 2009 Summer Natural Gas Market Outlook
ICF Energy and Environment Intelligence Briefing, June 2009 Webcast. With natural gas prices at a multi-year low and increasing discussion of large new shale gas resources, have we moved into a new chapter for North American gas pricing? ICF Vice President Kevin Petak provided ICF’s latest view on the natural gas market, the effect of new shale resources, the potential effect of an economic recovery, and the outlook for the remainder of 2009 and next year.
Lighting Update: ENERGY STAR Opportunities for Lighting Distributors with the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
Published in
Today’s Lighting Distributor , the official magazine of the National Association of Independent Lighting Distributors, July/August 2009, by Jeffrey Schwartz, LC of ICF International. The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) created significant opportunities using stimulus funds for building suppliers, manufacturers, and contractors, specifically in many instances, for electrical and lighting distributors. Now is the time to educate clients about ENERGY STAR qualified lighting. The article outlines the opportunities and the specific steps distributors can take to assist their customers.
New Measurement Data Has Implications for Quantifying Natural Gas Losses from Cast Iron Distribution Mains
Co-authored by Carey Bylin, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Luigi Cassab, Comgas; Adilson Cazarini, Comgas, Danilo Ori, Comgas; and Don Robinson and Doug Sechler of ICF International. Featured in the August issue (Vol. 236 No. 8) of Pipeline & Gas Journal , this article discusses the gas leakage measurement study undertaken by Comgas, Brazil’s largest distributor of gas in metropolitan San Paulo, to replace cast iron pipe that had been in service more than 50 years. To evaluate gas leakage, Comgas tested over 900 segments of cast iron pipe establishing a leakage factor of 800 thousand cubic feet of natural gas per mile of pipe per year. This average leakage factor is about double of that in the U.S., according to the U.S. Environment Protection Agency report, Inventory of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks . The article discusses how Comgas measured these emission factors and several methods to reduce emissions ranging from inserting plastic pipe inside the cast iron (which Comgas has done in 155 miles of pipe) to robots that travel inside the cast iron pipe sealing joints.
Outlook for Vehicle Technology - How Far Will We Get and When?
Webinar Presentation, February 2009, Energy & Environment Intelligence Briefing. This month, ICF Vice President K.G. Duleep explores how manufacturers can achieve the goal of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA), how much it will cost to reach the target of 35 mpg, and how much the role of hybrids and diesel vehicles has to expand to reach it. He’ll also discuss the potential contribution of plug-in hybrids and battery electric and fuel cell vehicles.
Overview of the American Clean Energy and Security Act
In an April 2009 webinar available exclusively to members of the American Gas Association (AGA), ICF International Senior Vice President Joel Bluestein provided an overview of the greenhouse gas sections of the American Clean Energy and Security Act, a climate change bill sponsored by Congressmen Henry Waxman (D-CA) and Ed Markey (D-MA). AGA Senior Managing Counsel Pam Lacey discussed the energy efficiency sections of the bill, as well as AGA’s position and planned response to the proposed legislation.
Rapid Energy Modeling of Existing Buildings: From Digital Pictures to Comprehensive Energy Footprints
ICF International worked with Autodesk to explore rapid energy modeling, a streamlined process to move quickly, and with only the minimal data necessary, from image capture of existing building exteriors through simplified simulation to energy and carbon reduction analysis. Our study included interviews with leading architecture firms and application of Autodesk's workflow on six diverse facilities on three continents. The workflow produced BIM, DOE-2.2, and EnergyPlus models, and delivered results that were close to utility energy use data. ICF found that Rapid Energy Modeling has the potential to be a shortcut to energy use estimation, a stepping stone between quick benchmarking and detailed audits and can help screen high carbon reduction potential buildings, scale up the results across the organization, and stimulate creation of skilled green jobs. It can empower diverse constituencies, from design teams to building owners to tenants, to measure and forecast energy and carbon footprints of existing buildings and invest in energy efficiency measures, within a smaller budget and shorter time frame.
Risk-based Assessment Methodology to Identify Critical Assets
In September 2009, new guidance was issued by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to assist entities in the development of the Risk-Based Assessment Methodology to identify Critical Assets and ultimately the associated Critical Cyber Assets required in CIP-002. ICF's white paper discusses the importance of defining a robust methodology, the issues to be considered and the industry-standard guidelines for performing Risk-Based Assessments to identify Critical Assets.
The 21st Century Electricity Grid: The Right Time to Catch Up
The new century has brought unprecedented energy, economic, and environmental challenges in Canada and the United States, forcing North Americans to reinvent the way electricity is used and produced. This paper provides a brief description of the current state of electricity grids in North America and what smart grid development might mean.
The Costs of Going Green
Published in the June 2009 issue of
Public Utilities Fortnightly by Steven Fine and Elliot Roseman of ICF International. How will CO
2 legislation affect power generation choices and consumers’ cost of power? As Congress considers sweeping energy legislation, this article addresses these critical questions. ICF divides the market into groups, and shows that carbon prices have to be substantial before changing the dispatch of existing plants. With regard to new plants, the threshold is substantially lower (costs of about $20 per ton change the type of capacity). We must understand these tradeoffs to make optimal plans for generation and hit profitability targets. We also show that the impact on consumers depends on whether the state is traditionally regulated or competitive, and how often gas is on the margin. The consumer impact could range from 10-20 percent of their bills. This is no surprise as a tradeoff for the benefits of reducing greenhouse gases and other emissions, but keeping those costs in balance is key.
U.S. Emission and Fuel Markets Outlook
ICF International’s U.S. Emission and Fuel Market Outlook 2009 provides market analysis and price projections for all of the key emission and fuel market benchmarks, with individual chapters on GHG, SO
2 /NO
x /mercury, gas and coal. All chapters address the impacts of climate policies on the relevant markets. Companies can customize their study by purchasing an individual chapter, multiple chapters, or the entire integrated study. Subscribers receive three bound copies of the report, access to ICF's team of professionals, and a discounted on-site energy market seminar.
Update on U.S. GHG Regulations
Webcast, March 2009. In a webinar to members of the American Gas Association (AGA), ICF International Senior Vice President Joel Bluestein provides an update on regulatory actions at the state, regional, and federal levels, including new cap and trade programs, regulations under existing law, potential federal legislation, and the impact of these and other related developments on local gas distribution companies. He also discusses ICF’s outlook on the potential implications of these programs on the development of regional, federal, and international emission trading markets.
2008 Publications
An Analysis of New Harquahala Generating Company’s TO/TOP Registration
This white paper, written by Pamela Dautel and Kimberly Richardson of ICF International, summarizes the events surrounding the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) decision that required New Harquahala Generating Company to register as a transmission owner and transmission operator in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) Region. The paper also includes an analysis of the Harquahala case and what it may mean to other registered entities.
Benefits to ERCOT Ratepayers from the Kelson Transmission Project
Prepared for Kelson Transmission Company, LLC, by ICF International, June 2008. ICF conducted an economic analysis of the Canal to Deweyville transmission project, which will serve greater Houston, Texas. The proposed transmission line will provide access to efficient generation capacity in eastern Texas. The project will improve the capacity reserve margin of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and provide up to $35 billion of total cost savings to rate payers over a 30-year period. In addition, it will reduce emissions through better utilization of clean and efficient power plants. ICF’s report was filed with the Public Utility Commission of Texas in June 2008. If approved, Kelson Transmission anticipates completion of the $300-million project by spring 2011.
Best Practice Upgrades for Energy Efficient New Homes
Prepared by David Meisegeier of ICF International and Glenn Chinery of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Climate Protection Division for the 2008 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, August 2008. This paper illustrates the energy efficiency impacts of design choices through a discussion on the development of EPA’s Builder Option Packages (BOP) and the Home Energy Rating System (HERS), scores which they specify.
Cap and Trade: Background and Basics
September 2008. Cap and trade has profound and direct effects on companies directly responsible for emissions. Under cap and trade, companies that need to increase their emissions as part of their production must buy credits from companies who pollute less. Companies, that can cost-effectively reduce emissions, can save money on their production costs and make money by selling emissions credits to companies having a tougher time reducing their emissions. Cap and trade enables all participants to meet the total emissions cap, cost-effectively. In addition, it allows emitters to find the least-cost solutions for total pollution control, innovatively.
From Plant to Plate: A Dynamic Program to Reduce Our Carbon Foot-Print by Rating Restaurants' Green-ness
Published in
EnergyPulse , September 2008, by Eliot Roseman of ICF International and Stefanie Tocco, George Washington University student. The greenhouse gases (GHG) produced in growing, transporting and consuming food in restaurants nationwide are enormous...about one-twelfth of these emissions arise just from this one industry in the U.S. The average meal travels 1,500 miles to reach your plate, and restaurant use of energy is notoriously inefficient. Improving the performance of this industry is no longer an option because of the cost of energy to the restaurants and because of their impact on the planet. We need a new "Eat Green" standard by which to evaluate and rank restaurants, and the ranking should be according to how well they meet the criteria for being clean (this article describes six such criteria in detail). This program should be voluntary—with standards set by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and administered by the states—but should also be consistent with whatever GHG legislation passes in Congress in the near future, which will likely provide for mandatory reductions.
Grid Reliability
By Jim Stanton of ICF International and published in the March 2008 issue of
POWER magazine. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Critical Infrastructure Protection Reliability Standards will be fully in the spotlight in 2008. These newly approved measures have the potential to impose substantial compliance associated costs on Responsible Entities under the standards, and also seek to mitigate what are perhaps the most significant risks to the nation's electric infrastructure.
GU-24 Goes Mainstream
Published in the March/April 2008 issue of
Lightrays , a publication of the
American Lighting Association , by Chris Primous of ICF International. GU24 lightbulbs (lamps) and sockets are used in many new ENERGY STAR qualified decorative residential light fixtures as the new standard in permanent high-efficiency bases. Using GU24 ensures that decorative light fixtures will always be high-efficiency and never regressed to a low-efficiency lightbulb. This article talks about the use of the GU24 design becoming increasingly popular as manufacturers of bulbs and fixtures start to make the transition to this new design.
ICF International’s U.S. Renewable Power Market Study
Webinar Presentation, May 2008, Energy & Environment Intelligence Briefing. ICF Senior Manager Whit Fulton previews
ICF International's U.S. Renewable Power Market Study . The first of its kind for ICF, this study provides a detailed analysis of the rapidly developing U.S. renewable power market. The analysis uses ICF’s Integrated Planning Model (IPM®) framework to provide utilities, IPP developers, and governmental organizations with fundamentals-based forecasts of capacity, generation, and prices in U.S. renewable power markets.
ICF International’s Winter 2007-08 U.S. Emission and Fuel Markets Outlook
Webinar Presentation, February 2008, Energy & Environment Intelligence Briefing. ICF Vice President Steve Fine will unveil ICF’s new Emission and Fuel Markets Outlook. This multiclient study provides the only fully integrated view of U.S. emission and fuel markets available. This year’s study focuses especially on climate change regulation, presenting assessments of the most recent multi-sector regulatory proposals.
ICF International’s Winter 2008-09 U.S. Emission and Fuel Markets Outlook
Webinar Presentation, October 2008, Energy & Environment Intelligence Briefing. ICF Vice President Steve Fine and Senior Manager Chris MacCracken will unveil ICF’s new Emission and Fuel Markets Outlook. This new multi-client study provides the only fully integrated view of U.S. emission and fuel markets available. This year’s study focuses especially on the uncertainty surrounding CAIR as well as how it may or may not fit in with proposed climate change regulation. Forecasts of potential regulatory outcomes and their implications for power, fuel, and emissions markets will be discussed.
ICF International's Canadian Carbon Market Analysis Report
Webinar Presentation, March 2008, Energy & Environment Intelligence Briefing. ICF Vice President Skip Willis will discuss the regulatory framework for greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions in Canada and present the key findings of ICF's new
Canadian Carbon Market Analysis Report . This is the first report of its kind that has been produced in the Canadian market.
ICF International's Overview of NERC Compliance Requirements
Webinar Presentation, January 2008, Energy & Environment Intelligence Briefing. Jimmy Glotfelty, Managing Director of ICF's Energy Markets practice, Jim Stanton, Director of NERC Compliance for ICF, and ICF Project Manager Cherie Broadrick will discuss North America Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Reliability Standards Compliance and introduce the ICF Reliability Information Standards Knowledge (RISK) Portal. As of June 18, 2007, a total of 83 of NERC’s reliability standards have became fully enforceable. For the first time in the history of our electric system, there are mandatory standards that each and every entity that uses the bulk power system must follow. Glotfelty and Stanton will discuss the implications of these requirements and describe a full spectrum of preparedness and compliance tools being provided by ICF to assist with compliance.
ICF International's Update on U.S. GHG Regulations
Webinar Presentation, June 2008, Energy & Environment Intelligence Briefing. ICF Senior Vice President Joel Bluestein will provide an update on U.S. state and federal developments on greenhouse gas (GHG) regulation. He will review the status of development, likely coverage, program structure, and potential implications and interactions of the various programs proposed or currently under development. The discussion will include recent developments on the Lieberman/Warner bill, updates on state and regional activity and a discussion of the relationship between a possible U.S. program and the international carbon offset market.
ICF International's Voluntary Carbon Offsets Market Outlook
Webinar Presentation, April 2008, Energy & Environment Intelligence Briefing. ICF Senior Vice President Craig Ebert and Project Manager Alexandre Marty discuss ICF International's new study of the small but maturing market offers an in-depth analysis of the opportunities, players, trends, and barriers characterizing the voluntary carbon offset market now and to 2012.
ICF International's Winter 2008-09 Natural Gas Markets Outlook
Webinar Presentation, November 2008, Energy & Environment Intelligence Briefing. ICF vice president for gas market modeling, Kevin Petak, will provide an overview of ICF’s winter outlook for natural gas markets. Based on ICF’s Gas Market Model (GMM) and analysis of North American gas supply and demand, the outlook will address the status of storage, changing supply resulting from increased production of shale gas, and the effect of the global economic downturn.
ICF's Assessment of Recent Developments in Unconventional Natural Gas Resources - Will There be a Gas Glut?
Webinar Presentation, September 2008, Energy & Environment Intelligence Briefing. ICF Vice President of Natural Gas Consulting Harry Vidas will present the results of a recently completed ICF study of unconventional gas production and resources in the United States and Canada. The study provides an overview of the potential impact on U.S. gas markets of rapidly expanding gas production from shale gas, tight gas, and coalbed methane.
ICF's Green Business Brochure
The green business team at ICF helps leading companies develop and implement green strategies that are right for their business. From energy efficiency and environmental sustainability to carbon footprints and credit monetization, ICF’s team has deep expertise in supporting some of the world’s best-known brands as they navigate an increasingly complex array of environmental options and opportunities.
Implications of Cyber Security Standards for Electric Power Grid
ICF International examines the implications of the cyber security and critical infrastructure protection (CIP) standards set forth by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The Commission has implemented eight mandatory security standards that apply to all bulk power system users, owners, and operators. Developed by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), these critical infrastructure protection standards attempt to protect the nation's electric power grid from cyber attacks.
Implications of Proposed Canadian Regulatory Framework for Decreasing GHG
ICF International has examined the implications of the Canadian Government’s proposed regulatory framework for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and has developed a tool that will enable companies to better predict the cost to comply. Under the Regulatory Framework for Air Emissions enacted in April 2007, companies are required to reduce their GHG emissions on an intensity basis by 18 percent from a 2006 baseline by 2010 and continue to make intensity improvements of 2 percent each year until 2015. With the government keen to see investment in carbon abatement stay in Canada, future carbon prices in the domestic market are of particular interest to companies with Canadian operations.
Incorporating Energy Efficiency into Affordable Housing Projects
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) continues to prioritize development and rehabilitation projects that incorporate energy efficiency measures. This quarter’s featured resource is a guide developed by ICF for PJs to encourage efficiency in projects funded through the HOME Program. The guide contains general information about energy efficiency measures as well as programs local governments can use to encourage developers to incorporate these measures in the development process. It also offers specific information about energy savings and cost savings associated with efficiency measures in specific climate zones, including: CA Central Valley Climate Zone; CA Bay Area Climate Zone; Mountainous Climate Zone; and Desert Climate Zone.
Issues and Challenges in Developing a U.S. CO2 Storage Infrastructure
Webinar Presentation, December 2008, Energy & Environment Intelligence Briefing. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is widely seen as a critical component of aggressive GHG reduction strategies. The principal technical, economic and regulatory challenges of CCS are related to the capture and storage phase of the process and considerable research into these areas is ongoing. By contrast little analytical work has focused on the pipeline system for transporting CO
2 from capture sites to storage sites. This study provides some initial information and insights on the size, configuration, costs, timing, commercial structure, and regulation of U.S. and Canadian pipeline systems to transport CO
2 for storage.
Lighting Update: ENERGY STAR, Legislation, Trends, Incentives and Opportunities
Published in
Today’s Lighting Distributor , the official magazine of the National Association of Independent Lighting Distributors, May/June 2008, by Jeffrey Schwartz of ICF International. Recent changes and trends in the lighting market provide new opportunities for independent lighting distributors. As market trends and legislation move purchasers away from inefficient technologies and towards energy-efficient products, distributors that have become ENERGY STAR Partners have an opportunity to increase sales and profits. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, for example, requires that all general purpose lighting in federal buildings be ENERGY STAR products, or products designated under the Energy Department’s Federal Energy Management Program, by the end of fiscal year 2013. The article also outlines the simplified criterion of the Advanced Lighting Package and the Database for Incentives and Joint Marketing Exchange (DIME) tool on the ENERGY STAR Web site.
NERC/CIP Cyber Security: Leveraging Existing Controls to Secure the Enterprise
Published in the February 28, 2008, issue of
Energy Central's EnergyPulse , by Kevin T. McDonald, Senior NERC Cyber Security Analyst at ICF International. The electric utility industry is facing the daunting task of compliance with the rigorous
North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) critical infrastructure protection (CIP) physical and electronic security standards. Formulated to mitigate the threat of damage or disruption to the U.S. and Canadian Power Grid, these standards were formally adopted by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in early 2008 and are now mandatory. This article demonstrates methods to reduce the impact of compliance by identifying and incorporating existing controls into the NERC CIP Framework.
Offsetting 101: An Overview of Options
September 2008. Due to the heightened awareness of climate change, companies and governments are taking an increasingly significant interest in determining their greenhouse gas (GHG) impacts and are undertaking approaches to reduce their carbon footprint. Worldwide, public and private sector entities are designing and implementing energy reduction measures, such as energy efficiency, and investing in renewable energy. Increasingly, many companies and governments are considering and investing in carbon offsets and carbon neutrality efforts as a way to mitigate their GHG impact and positively affect their image in the eyes of employees, as well as customers and shareholders.
Selling the True Value of Lighting
Published in
Lighting Design and Application (LD&A) , January 2008, by Jeffrey Schwartz of ICF International. Whether proposing a new lighting design, or a lighting upgrade, at some point the client has to be sold on the cost effectiveness of the system. This article explains how to use financial terms and formulas to sell the economical and energy saving value of a lighting project.
The Broader Connection between Public Transportation, Energy Conservation and Greenhouse Gas Reduction
This February 2008 study was prepared by ICF International in conjunction with Dr. Pat Mokhtarian for the
American Public Transportation Association (APTA) , with funding from the Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP). Based on data from the National Household Travel Survey 2001, the study found a significant correlation between public transit availability and reduced automobile travel, independent of travel use. This secondary effect results in lower total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) even when people are not substituting automobile use with transit use. The presence of public transportation results in more efficient land use patterns in community development. This allows areas to support more travel with fewer roadways in less space and saves 4.2 billion gallons of gasoline, reduces CO
2 emissions, and lowers overall energy consumption. A 2007 ICF study assessed the total number of VMT required to replace transit trips and the direct petroleum savings attributable to public transportation.
The E-Business Revolution in Energy Services
by Philip E. Mihlmester of ICF International and Michael McKelvey. Reprinted with permission from American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, ©2000, Washington, D.C. Published in Proceedings of the ACEEE 2000 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings 5.209-5.218. For information about the ACEEE proceedings, contact
http://www.aceee.org. This paper offers insights into the key steps involved in configuring an e-business and demonstrates how e-business can transform and is transforming the energy and energy efficiency marketplace. This paper provides an overview of energy and efficiency related e-business concepts, including examples.
The Road to Carbon Neutral: ENERGY STAR for Homes and Beyond
Prepared by David Meisegeier and Dean Gamble of ICF International, along with Sam Rashkin, R.A., and Glenn Chinery of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency ENERGY STAR for Homes, August 2008. This paper, prepared for the 2008 American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, presents an iterative framework for the development of residential energy efficiency specifications, including strategies to promote leading-edge technologies with high energy and carbon savings potentials that are not yet cost-effective or market-ready on a national basis.
Understanding Mercury in CFLs and Lamp Recycling
Published in the January 2008 issue of
Lightrays , a publication of the
American Lighting Association , by Chris Primous of ICF International. Widespread use of compact fluorescent lamps (CFL) in lighting fixtures can save a tremendous amount of our nation’s resources. CFLs use three-quarters less energy than standard incandescent lamps, and if every American replaced just one incandescent lamp with an ENERGY STAR qualified CFL, it would be roughly the equivalent to preventing greenhouse gas emissions of 800,000 cars. However, by design, all CFLs contain trace amounts of mercury, an environmental hazard that can pose health risks upon exposure. This article examines what consumers should understand about the hazard and what steps can be taken to ensure proper disposal and recycling.
Voluntary Carbon Offsets Market Outlook
February 2008. The market for voluntary carbon offsets is small but maturing rapidly.
ICF International's new study analyzes the market drivers, assesses the impediments affecting growth in the market, and presents scenarios outlining how the market may evolve to 2010. The study also examines the impact of some of the emerging international standards and verification protocols.
2007 Publications
A Tough Puzzle—Parsing Out the Dramatic Challenges of Today’s Integrated Resource Planning
By Elliot Roseman and Basak Uluca of ICF International, and published in Edison Electric Institute's
Electric Perspectives , July/August 2007. Utility Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) and long-term internal planning have been gaining momentum in recent years. IRPs were popular in the 1980s and '90s and fell into disuse in restructured states, as IRPs were generally thought not to be necessary in competitive markets. Today, IRP and longer-term internal utility planning are regaining popularity in both traditional and deregulated states. However, today’s IRPs are more complicated and sophisticated and must take into account a much wider spectrum of issues, including energy efficiency, renewables, transmission planning, regional resources, climate change, and risk. This article discusses the complexities and the differences of today’s IRPs from those in the past, and how utilities can best undertake such necessary planning.
Captive Power in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): The Development of Power Projects in the Middle East
By Kim Keats Martinez of ICF International and published in
Commodities Now , June 2007. Power and water requirements in the Middle East are growing quickly. Unfortunately, the utilities' current tender model can make it more difficult for the region to diversify away from hydrocarbons. Unless there is an accepted legal and regulatory framework for selling excess power back to the grid, electricity procurement costs for industrial clients will be higher than they should otherwise be.
Coal Potential: Identifying Emerging Opportunities
Written by Bishal Thapa and Ankur Bansal of
ICF International's India office and published in
Power Line , April 2007. The article outlines the robust coal demand and investment needs in the coal sector considering the current Indian economic growth. The article examines how coal sector fundamentals relate to the broader energy markets dynamics and influence regulatory changes. The authors unveil prices and the current opportunities in "captive coal" that may hold value even if the regulatory regime stretches further than anticipated.
Cyber Security Under the NERC Reliability Standards
By James R. Stanton of ICF International and published in
IT Compliance Magazine , Spring 2007. The interconnected nature and electronic control systems of the nation’s high voltage electrical system renders it susceptible to coordinated cyber attacks.
Critical infrastructure protection (CIP) requirements are key components in the newly enforceable set of NERC Reliability Standards. Perhaps more than any other set of standards, the CIP group holds the potential to deflect and address the most potentially devastating contingencies on the interconnected systems. Cyber security has a wider meaning in the context of large system disruptions and interrupted service to broad areas of users than the previous concerns about data and file server corruption.
Forecasting Phase-Two Prices—Looking for Reductions in All the Right Places
Published in Point Carbon’s
Carbon Market Europe , July 2007, by Alexandre Marty and Etienne Gabel of ICF International. This article considers where the fundamental equilibriums between supply and demand for CO
2 emission reductions will lie for the second phase of the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme, and what can be deduced for EU allocation (EUA) price forecasts over the period 2008-2012. Although views are often shared on the allowances shortfall and on the supply distribution of Kyoto-based credits, there are diverging assessments of the ability for domestic emission reductions, especially from the power sector. ICF analyzes the opportunities for such domestic emission reductions and derive EUA price forecasts using
ICF International’s InCaP tool .
Guide to Carbon Procurement Vehicles: Investor's Guide 2007
In preparation for the Kyoto commitment period, the past few years have seen a multitude of new carbon purchasing vehicles launched, offering companies another means of participating in the carbon market. ICF has updated its
comprehensive study that enables investors to understand the characteristics of carbon procurement vehicles and make qualified decisions when (a) buying or selling carbon credits to these entities or (b) investing for compliance or voluntary reasons. The study is based on in-depth interviews with carbon funds managers and thorough analysis of publicly available information. Procurement vehicles are analysed in-depth according to evaluation criteria differentiated for investors, buyers, and sellers of carbon credits.
ICF International's Update on U.S. GHG Regulatory Initiatives
Webinar Presentation, December 2007, Energy & Environment Intelligence Briefing. ICF Senior Vice President Joel Bluestein will provide an update on U.S. state and federal developments on greenhouse gas (GHG) regulation. He will review the status of development, likely coverage, program structure, and potential implications and interactions of the various programs proposed or currently under development. The discussion will include recent developments on the Lieberman/Warner bill, news from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting in Bali, and possible regulatory responses to court decisions on GHG regulation.
ICF International's Winter Gas Market Outlook
Webinar Presentation, November 2007, Energy & Environment Intelligence Briefing. ICF vice president for gas market modeling, Kevin Petak, will provide an overview of ICF’s winter outlook for natural gas markets. Based on ICF’s Gas Market Model liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity
Independent Assessment of Midwest ISO Operational Benefits
Prepared by ICF International, February 2007. The Midwest Independent System Operator (ISO) engaged ICF to estimate potential and actual economic benefits of its market operations for the period June 2005 through August 2006. On April 1, 2005, the Midwest ISO began operation of Midwest Markets—an hourly locational marginal price (LMP) energy market that includes centralized unit commitment and dispatch, a day-ahead energy market, a real-time energy market, and a financial transmission rights market. Detailed study results were released in February 2007, followed by an
addendum in May 2007 . The report reveals an upward trend in the percentage of potential benefits that were actually achieved, suggesting improvements in operation of the markets following market start-up. Findings indicate that a subset of benefits provided by a large RTO such as the Midwest ISO brought US$58 million in tangible financial benefits—or an annualized figure of almost $70 million—to market participants during a 10-month study period.
Mandatory Standards Advance
By Jim Stanton of ICF International and published in the January 2007 issue of
POWER magazine, "Focus on O&M." Users of the Bulk Electric Power System in the United States and parts of Canada will soon be required to comply with enforceable reliability standards from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). These standards apply to generator owners and operators, transmission providers, load serving entities, and power marketers. Measures of compliance with these standards bring increased attention to the operational skills of the users of the system, along with financial penalties and public disclosure for violators.
Prospects for Energy Integration
Published in
Himal Southasian , April 2007, by Bishal Thapa, Amit Sharma, and Rashika Gupta of ICF International. ICF International surveys the prospects of energy integration in South Asian countries. The authors argue that new economic realities are reshaping the possibilities for regional energy integration.
Public Transportation and Petroleum Savings in the U.S.: Reducing Dependence on Oil
January 2007. ICF International's study analyzes the amount of petroleum saved by the use of public transportation systems in the United States. The analysis reveals that public transportation currently saves 1.4 billion gallons of gasoline annually. The study further examines actual savings in household budgets attributable to public transportation use and included factors that influence travel such as income, household size, neighborhood density, and the number of workers in the household. It concludes that public transportation use correlates with 16 fewer miles driven per day, per household. This amounts to an estimated $1,400 per year in annual fuel costs. Two-worker households in which one worker uses public transportation have the opportunity to save substantially more if they have only one car. These families can save an estimated $6,200 per year, accounting for both public transportation use and vehicle ownership.
Regional Resource Planning Makes Sense
By Elliot Roseman of ICF International and Sandra Hochstetter, Chair, Arkansas Public Service Commission, and published in
EnergyPulse , February 1, 2007. This article identifies the growing trend in integrated resource planning (IRP) among regulated utilities, but goes one step future. With the advent of regional wholesale markets, large regional baseload and renewable generation resources, climate change and other emissions considerations, and regional transmission planning by regional transmission organizations (RTO), the authors argue that "Regional Resource Planning" (RRP) would be a substantial improvement in optimizing the resource mix. Importantly, RRP would not usurp state regulatory authority—rather, it would be sponsored by existing regional regulatory groups and organizations, and would provide regional resource and cost analysis that state regulators could use to better determine what makes sense for their states and the region as a whole. The authors enumerate the key elements of the RRP concept, as well as how to implement the process. Given the huge need for electric industry investment that the United States is facing nationwide over the next 10-20 years, the time has come for an alternative that would optimize investment, achieve synergies, maximize consumer benefit, and augment regional information sharing. The time has come for RRP.
Technology Drives Methane Emissions Down, Profits Up
Published in
Oil & Gas Journal , August 13, 2007, by Brian Gillis of ICF International and consultants from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Heath Consultants, TransCanada, and Occidental Oil & Gas. Operators in all oil and gas industry sectors are finding that greenhouse gas emissions management is a new revenue source in the current market environment. This article reports on a range of projects applicable to a diverse set of sites worldwide that convert methane emissions from an environmental responsibility into a company resource. For each project example, the operator realized positive economic results on the project investment. Marginal abatement cost curves relate these individual projects to the remaining potential for such projects in selected countries.
The Compliance Clock is Ticking
By Jim Stanton of ICF International and published in the February 2007 issue of
POWER magazine . The article discusses the nature of sanctions and penalties assessed against violators of the NERC Reliability Standards. Also mentioned is the non-monetary sanctions that can be applied as well.
The Practical Insight to Gas Pricing in India
Published in the Sep/Oct 2007 issue of
Hydrocarbon Asia by Sachin Nagdive and Hitendra Patel of ICF International. India’s thrust for gas is high, and the country is set to double domestic gas supply by mid-2008. As the larger portion of this is expected to be consumed by the key sectors and since government has recently approved the gas pricing formula for this new supply, the affordability of these sectors has become a contentious issue. This article presents some of the scenarios pertaining to the key sector affordability and potential revenue option. The article also highlights the key market issues, governmental policies, and wants of reform related to gas market development and infrastructure requirement.
Understanding High-Performance T8 Systems
Published in
Lighting Design and Application (LD&A) , August 2007, by Jeffrey Schwartz of ICF International. Once upon a time there were very few options when selecting 32-W T8 lamps. Selection was limited to either 700 series (CRI of 70-plus) or 800 series lamps (CRI of 80-plus). Today, a typical lamp catalog will list more than 30 choices for 4-ft 32-W T8 lamps alone. This article talks about the technology, features, and benefits of High Performance T8 Systems, with an emphasis on energy savings and improved lighting quality.
Water Markets—Regulation Matters
January 2007.
Regulation Matters is the regular digest of water markets news and views from the
London office of ICF International. It provides coverage of topical issues in
water markets and the latest ICF International insights and perspectives into regulatory developments.
2006 Publications
2016: A Fixture Odyssey
Published in
Lighting Design and Application (LD&A) , September 2006, by Jeffrey Schwartz and Kenn Latal of ICF International. This article takes a whimsical look at lighting fixtures of the future using examples from science fiction movies. At the same time, the article challenges the lighting community to design fixtures that are sustainable,
energy-efficient , environmentally friendly, efficient, effective, aesthetically pleasing, and affordable.
Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Analysis Techniques for Transportation Projects
Prepared for American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) by ICF under NCHRP Project 25-25 Task 17, May 2006. This report identifies a total of 17 tools or methods that can be used to analyze the GHG implications of transportation projects. Existing tools are categorized into three groups: transportation GHG calculation tools, transportation/emissions strategy analysis tools, and energy/economic forecasting tools. These tools are designed to estimate travel and emissions impacts of specific types of transportation strategies, based on inputs about transportation programs or strategies (e.g., type of strategy, other parameters of specific strategies). Most of the analytical strength of these tools is in the estimation of travel impacts; the CO
2 calculation procedures are generally very simple, and often do not account for complex implications of vehicle operating characteristics on emissions. These tools include the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Commuter Model and the Federal Highway Administration’s (FHWA) Intelligent Transportation Systems Deployment Analysis System (IDAS).
EPACT: Show Me the Money!
Published in
Project Finance International , August 2006, by Elliot Roseman of ICF International. The article evaluates the accomplishments, as well as the shortfalls, of the 2005 U.S. Energy Policy Act one year after its passage. Hailed by some to be a long-awaited energy panacea, EPACT is packed with direct grants, loan guarantees, and other incentives. The article compares the authorized funds with the actual program appropriations for fiscal year 2007.
Everything is Illuminated
Published in
Natural Home and Garden , January/February 2006, by Paul Vrabel of ICF International, this article presents today's options for energy efficient lighting in the home. The article includes information on stylistic energy saving fixtures that are readily available in the market and the future of energy efficient lighting. Specifically, the article presents an overview of ENERGY STAR qualified fixtures that will save energy and meet consumers' performance and aesthetic needs. The article also presents that facts about the use of Light Emitting Diodes (LED) for the home, and where this technology is going to improve our world.
Fly Ash Use and Greenhouse Gas Benefits
Published in
Coal People Magazine , August 2006, by Victoria Thompson of ICF International, and Henry Ferland and John Sager of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This article examines the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction benefits of using fly ash, a byproduct of coal combustion, as a replacement for Portland cement in concrete production. In particular, it looks at recent innovative U.S. commodity contracts, which discuss the possible future allocation of carbon credits associated with the fly ash being sold. Although no carbon price is currently associated with fly ash use, the contracts recognize that this may become the case in the future and want to settle the issue of ownership of credits.
High Density Housing, Mega-Developments: An Assessment of Arizona and Nevada Comparing Central Power to a Distributed Energy Approach
With the populations of Arizona and Nevada projected to more than double from 2000-2035—triple the national growth rate—large “megadevelopment” projects are being considered to meet the demand for housing. Current standard approaches to utility and regional planning may be inadequate to deal with infrastructure changes and the impact on energy supplies, water resources, and the environment. This July 2006 study, prepared for Oak Ridge National Laboratory by
EEA, an ICF International Company , analyzes the expected energy and infrastructure requirements and considers distributed energy resource (DER) strategies as a solution, including gas-powered heat pump (GHP) and combined heat and power (CHP), to meet needs for base-load electricity and heating more efficiently and with lower capital cost and water consumption than would be required with conventional central power stations.
Paths to Power: The U.S. Electricity Grid
July 28, 2006, transcript. ICF International's Judah Rose, senior vice president and
electric transmission expert, was interviewed on
Living on Earth , a weekly environmental news and information program distributed by National Public Radio (NPR). Rose discussed the U.S. power grid—the largest power grid in the world—and how growth, deregulation, and under-investment in the grid are leading to unreliability and power outages across the country as demand for electricity exceeds the limits of the current system.
Rebuilding After the Gulf Coast Hurricane: Sustainable Communities Using Energy Efficiency
In 2005, a Category 4 hurricane made landfall near Buras, Louisiana, bringing 145 mph winds, inundating New Orleans, and leaving a path of destruction the size of the United Kingdom. Within hours, a city dubbed "the Big Easy" was awash in tragedy. As a result, more than 300,000 new single family homes will need to be built in Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi in the coming months. Six of those homes are being piloted in Pass Christian, Mississippi. This paper analyzes the incremental costs and payback periods to upgrade these new homes to be energy efficient.
Tax Deductions for Lighting Upgrades: The Energy Policy Act of 2005
Published in
Today's Lighting Distributor , the official magazine of the National Association of Independent Lighting Distributors, March/April 2006, by Jeffrey Schwartz of ICF International. This article explains the tax deductions for energy-efficient lighting contained in the
2005 Energy Policy Act (EPAct) . The article includes information on specific EPAct criteria and how the tax deductions can be used to help offset initial costs and motivate end-users to make lighting upgrades to their facilities.
The Indian Coal Sector: A Tale of Promise and Problem
Written by Bishal Thapa and Sandeep Kumar of
ICF International's India office and published in
World Coal , September 2006. ICF surveys the Indian coal sector in the midst of India's economic growth and in the context of Indian’s growing energy demand. The potential and current limitations, particularly around the slow pace of reforms, are discussed. The authors argue that coal in India remains the dominant energy source, but the slow pace of reforms is hurting India’s ability to develop alternate energy strategies.
The Kyoto Protocol and Its Market Mechanisms: Evaluating Their Contribution to Cleaner Energy
Published in the
AccountAbility Forum , "Energy & Accountability" (No. 9, 2006), June 2006,
Greenleaf Publishing . AccountAbility is an international organization that works to promote accountability for sustainable development. This article by Abyd Karmali of ICF International explores how well the Kyoto Protocol's market mechanisms have succeeded in stimulating greenhouse gas emission reductions in developing countries through carbon credits and whether the price signal provided by the rapidly maturing carbon market is strong enough to encourage rapid evolution toward lower carbon technologies in the global energy sector.
Using an Occupant Energy Index for Achieving Zero Energy Homes
Prepared by Brian Dean, Dean Gamble, Dave Kaiser and David Meisegeier of ICF International for the 15th Symposium on Improving Building Systems in Hot and Humid Climates, May 2006. This paper introduces the concept of the Occupant Energy Index, which defines the full spectrum of influence that occupant behavior exerts on the energy consumption of a home and its implications for the design of Zero Energy Homes.
2005 Publications
Assessment of California CHP Market and Policy Options for Increased Penetration
The California Energy Commission identified a need to reassess the market opportunities for combined heat and power (CHP) applications and the role they could play in contributing to the State's Energy Action Plan. The use of CHP systems in commercial, industrial, and multifamily residential establishments could improve the overall efficiency of energy use by displacing fuel use for boilers, while at the same time displacing marginal, predominantly gas-fired, sources of electricity generation. This research project was undertaken since CHP could have a potentially large role in supporting California's loading order. This July 2005 report by
EEA, an ICF International Company , provides information to help California stakeholders understand the technical and economic potential for CHP in California; end-user drivers and adoption barriers to CHP; cost and benefits of incentives and policy options necessary to realize the CHP opportunity; and technology gaps and R&D needs to move the CHP market opportunity forward.
Beyond Energy Efficiency
Published in
Today’s Lighting Distributor , November/December 2005, by Jeffrey Schwartz of ICF International. The article explains how businesses can reduce energy costs by upgrading lighting systems to more energy-efficient technology, providing a quick payback on their investment. To assure that end users are provided with quality lighting solutions, lighting practitioners must evaluate other important lighting criteria and follow the guidelines of good lighting design.
Characterization of the U.S. Industrial/Commercial Boiler Population
The U.S. industrial and commercial sectors consume large quantities of energy. Much of this energy is used in boilers to generate steam and hot water. This May 2005 report by
EEA, an ICF International Company , characterizes the boilers in the industrial and commercial sector in terms of number of units, aggregate capacity, unit capacity, primary fuel, application, and regional distribution. The report also includes analysis of boiler fuel consumption and the age of boiler units. It does not include an inventory of individual boilers.
Clearer Signals Ahead
Published in
Energy Risk Magazine , April 2005, by Abyd Karmali, Sebastian Foot, and Nazim Osmanick of ICF International. Each year has seen a new stage of maturity in the global markets for carbon emissions. Market analysts now face the analytical challenge of incorporating a price of carbon into their investment appraisals. This article provides perspective on the dynamics of carbon supply and demand during the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012) and suggests implications for what the price of CO
2 might be.
Cost-Benefit Study of the Proposed GridFlorida RTO
Written by Kojo Ofori-Atta, Judah Rose, Chris McCarthy, Himali Parmar, Ken Collison, Shanthi Muthiah, and Elliot Roseman of ICF International, December 12, 2005. This
study prepared for GridFlorida LLC examines the benefits and costs to peninsular Florida consumers of a GridFlorida Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) under two possible centralized modes of operation: a Day-1 RTO and a Day-2 RTO. The overall outcome of net benefits to peninsular Florida consumers depends on both quantitative and qualitative aspects of the RTO structure and start-up costs. The combined benefits of a "Greenfield" Day-1 RTO with all new systems and physical facilities are not nearly as large as the costs. In the case of a Day-2 RTO, although the quantified benefits were almost US$1 billion, the cost of a Greenfield Day-2 RTO was approximately 28 percent higher. Thus if the qualitative Day-2 RTO benefits are worth approximately US$285 million, then the proposed GridFlorida RTO could break even.
Cost-Effective Methane Emissions Reductions for Small and Midsize Natural Gas Producers
Published in the
Journal of Petroleum Technology , June 2005, by Robin Petrusak and Donald Robinson of ICF International, Roger Fernandez of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Natural Gas STAR Program, and Duane Zavadil of Bill Barrett Corporation. This paper outlines methane emission reduction technologies and techniques that can be applied to various types of domestic gas production. This paper avoids a "one-size-fits-all" approach. Instead this paper offers tested and easy-to-use analytical tools to help small-to medium-sized producers make economic decisions on equipment selection and operating practices that reduce methane emissions and are appropriate for their region.
Development of Petroleum Resources
Whether there will be more refineries and domestic oil production depends on industry’s response to the Energy Act’s incentives. In addition to financial incentives, the Act requires an inventory of offshore resources, which signals the starting point for future offshore oil and gas leasing, exploration and production in areas currently off limits to leasing and drilling. The Act also enhances the ability to site new offshore pipelines in the Gulf region. ICF International projects that the United States will become substantially more dependent on the import of petroleum products in the coming decades—with imports more than doubling.
Emission Reduction Opportunities for Non-CO2 Gases in California
Prepared by ICF for California Energy Commission Public Interest Energy Research Program, July 2005. The report provides an analysis of mitigation options for sources of non-CO2 greenhouse gases, including natural gas and petroleum systems, landfills, manure management systems, electric power systems, refrigeration and air conditioning systems, and other sources. The purpose of this study is to provide the state with information on the costs and benefits of specific options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from these sources. The results of this study are reflected in the form of marginal abatement cost curves.
Energy Project Siting and Infrastructure Development
Major energy facilities will be easier to site. The Energy Act encourages the siting and development of energy facilities and resources by providing financial incentives and granting new authority to the U.S. Federal Government. In light of these incentives and the current level of oil and gas prices, efforts are likely to accelerate to find and produce marginal domestic resources. Federal authority for liquefied natural gas (LNG) siting could be a key factor in encouraging such projects. Those with pending LNG and oil and gas opportunities should maximize the development and production of resources that qualify for the new investment incentives.
Estimating Transportation-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Energy Use in New York State
Prepared by ICF for the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting, March 18, 2005. ICF completed this report in partnership with the New York State Department of Transportation that assessed the transportation-related components of the New York State Energy Plan. The report developed a baseline and projection for energy use and CO2 emissions for the state and by sector, and for each metropolitan planning organization (MPO) in the state by mode. The report also examined MPO experiences and responses to the new energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) analysis contained in the state energy plan and evaluated potential energy savings and GHG reductions from selected transportation strategies.
Leading the Charge
Published in
Progressive Grocer 's October 2005 issue by Peter Flippen of ICF International, the article highlights the launch of an initiative developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ENERGY STAR program in partnership with top energy information services companies. The initiative allows energy information providers to send their client's energy consumption data for buildings via the Internet to the EPA. In return, the EPA analyzes the data and produces a building energy performance rating on a 1-100 scale with 50 being the national average. The article describes the early adoption of this unique benchmarking service by two leading companies, Avista Advantage and Cadence Network, on behalf of their clients, Food Lion and SuperValu. ICF International is the lead contractor to EPA for ENERGY STAR.
Maintenance Strategy Yields Big Savings
Published in
H&MM (Hotel and Motel Management), September 19, 2005, by Bruce Appelbaum of ICF International and Stuart Brodsky of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Simple maintenance strategies that can achieve significant improvements in hotel and motel energy efficiency are described. Focusing on good maintenance practices can yield energy savings of more than 20 percent, often with little or no capital expenditure.
Methane Emissions and Reduction Opportunities in the Gas Processing Industry
Published in the
Oil & Gas Journal , June 13, 2005, by Donald Robinson and Vineet Aggarwal of ICF International and Roger Fernandez of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The U.S. EPA’s Natural Gas STAR Program was implemented in the early 1990s as part of the U.S. Federal Government’s Climate Change Strategy. Gas STAR is a public-private partnership aimed at voluntary methane emissions reductions. Based on adopted best management practices for cost-effective methane emission reductions, companies who have joined the Gas STAR Program have reported saving over one billion cubic feet of methane emissions in the year 2000. This paper identifies new opportunities for methane emission reductions from the gas processing sector.
Petroleum Refineries: Will Record Profits Spur Investment in New Capacity?
Testimony before the House Government Reform Committee, Subcommittee on Energy and Resources, U.S. House of Representatives, October 19, 2005. At the request of the Committee, ICF International provided testimony on the
outlook for global refinery capacity investment , and the impact of refining investment on U.S. imports over the next five years. ICF International's analysis indicates that the global refinery spare capacity will remain very tight over the period, barring a significant abatement of global oil demand growth. The testimony discusses this outlook and the impact on U.S. product imports, and provides several recommendations for legislative actions which would moderate the tight supply balance outlook.
Providing EPA's Energy Performance Rating Through Commercial Third Party Hosts
Published on-line in
Energy Central - EnergyPulse , April 29, 2005, by Bill von Neida of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) and Sarah O'Connell of ICF International. This paper presents the EPA's approach to providing the national energy performance rating system through commercial third party hosts. While the energy performance rating system has been successfully introduced and accepted into the market, a broader application is now being explored. EPA is now working with commercial energy information vendors to automate benchmarking. By automating the process, it becomes more realistic for organizations with large portfolios to assess their opportunities for improvement, prioritize upgrades across their portfolios, and realize significant financial and environmental savings.
Provisions for Electric Transmission
Transmission receives a strong push in the Energy Act. The Act allows the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to designate transmission corridors of 'national interest' to upgrade or add transmission for reliability or economic purposes. The "economic" aspect of this authority will be controversial. If states do not act, FERC could then require the development of transmission in those corridors. This authority will also make it harder for public interest and environmental groups to delay the approval of power lines. The Act also promotes transmission by requiring the setting of common nationwide standards for electric reliability, the setting of incentive rates for transmission, and the creation of a national organization that will monitor the status of the grid. All these measures imply a shift of authority from the states either to the federal government or in the case of siting, to multi-state compacts.
Rebuilding After Hurricane Katrina: Smart Energy Choices
October 25, 2005 - ICF International's issue paper suggests energy efficiency thresholds for reconstructing thousands of homes in the Gulf Coast region damaged by Hurricane Katrina. After modeling different levels of energy efficiency using DOE-2 software, ICF International compared the impacts of a mass reconstruction built to minimum building codes versus four increasingly more energy-efficient standards, finding that an initial investment of US$900 million to efficiently rebuild the destroyed homes in the states of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama would have a payback of just 7.5 years—much less than the term of a typical mortgage.
Role of Distributed Generation in Power Quality and Reliability
The December 2005 report by
EEA, an ICF International Company , explores the power quality sensitivity of the power market in New York and examines the value of integrating distributed generation into an overall customer power quality and reliability solution. The basic premise for this study is that distributed generation can be used to support customer's power quality and reliability needs and, by so doing, the value of distributed generation is increased.
Saving Oil in a Hurry
Published by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, ©2005. ICF International co-authored a
detailed study for the International Energy Agency (IEA), which the IEA turned into a book. The study analyzed a number of immediate demand measures that can significantly reduce both the increased cost of gasoline and the macro-economic losses of long gas lines, freight system disruption, rationing/allocation schemes, and more. Multiple variations of each of the approaches were analyzed to quantify how much petroleum they could save per day. In aggregate, a comprehensive program of the emergency approaches could reduce U.S. gasoline demand by as much as 18 percent over the limited duration of a crisis.
The Emerging Oil Refinery Capacity Crunch: A Global Clean Products Outlook
ICF International's Summer 2005 report warns that refinery capacity investment is lagging global demand growth, and that high refining margins and price volatility are here to stay. The analysis describes the global trends in clean products’ (gasolines and distillates) demands and shows how refinery capacity has gone from long to tight in the past five years. With limited expansions or grassroots capacity on the drawing board, the ability to meet oil demands in 2010 is very questionable. The paper discusses the reasons for this situation, and suggests that the United States—with more than two million barrels per day of product imports now and sustained high refinery margins and volatility already—will be in competition with China and the Far East for imported products. If the refinery capacity doesn’t expand to meet demand, prices will be higher, and global economies will be impacted.
The Energy Policy Act of 2005: Striking the Right Federal-State Balance
Published in
World-Generation , September/October 2005, by Elliot Roseman of ICF International. This article addresses the balance of responsibility and authority between the U.S. federal and state energy regulators, and how that balance is changing as a result of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. In particular, the article cites five examples: electric transmission "backstop authority"; LNG siting; system reliability; grid monitoring; and financial incentives, and demonstrates that the federal government is charged with a notably larger role under this legislation.
The Impacts of Clean Coal and Gasification Incentives
As a result of the incentives in the Act, the first few clean-coal and gasification projects will be in a strong position to come to fruition, and those pursuing such projects should accelerate their development efforts. The Act provides substantial amounts in direct grants, loan guarantees and accelerated depreciation, divided among different technologies and types of fuel, to make this option a reality. By encouraging reductions in the level of emissions, these incentives (and the target emission reductions in the Act) will provide part of the response the U.S. can give to critics of its position on global warming.
The Impacts of Public Utility Holding Company Act (PUHCA) Repeal
The repeal of PUHCA in the Energy Act will facilitate mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the electric utility industry. More companies will soon propose to combine with other utilities, in addition to three such proposals currently under consideration. Strong European companies and nontraditional investors may use this opportunity to purchase or co-invest in U.S. utilities. The U.S. Security and Exchange Commission's (SEC) traditional role in reviewing such proposals is gone, as is the requirement for utility combinations to be contiguous or interconnected. However, M&A approval or success is not assured, as state approval for M&A will still be required, and both the states and the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) are granted additional authority to review utilities’ books and records to ensure financial integrity and nonabuse of market power. How that authority is implemented will be critical.
The Impacts on Energy Efficiency
Energy efficiency (EE) is given a strong push. The EE provisions in the Energy Act will establish new efficiency standards for a wide range of appliances. It also will make it easier for the U.S. Federal Government to run voluntary EE programs. Hybrid vehicle tax credits will enhance awareness of and interest in hybrid vehicles. New home builder tax credits will enhance a builder's ability to manufacture more efficient homes. Appliance manufacturer tax credits may encourage those that build such devices to push the envelope of energy savings potential. Such measures could save 1.5 percent of U.S. energy consumption.
The Impacts on Nuclear Power
Nuclear energy is encouraged in the Energy Act. Tax credits and loan guarantees are provided for thousands of megawatts and could substantially lower the cost of those plants to consumers. Provisions for nuclear energy research and development demonstrate a renewed commitment from the U.S. Federal Government to next-generation facilities. Public opposition will inevitably accompany any proposal to build new nuclear facilities, but those concerns will be handled through the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) streamlined licensing process. As with all power plants—especially nuclear ones—security issues will loom large.
The Impacts on Renewable Energy
Renewables are strongly encouraged, and there is a window of opportunity to pursue them. The Act provides for substantial production tax credits (1.8 cents per kWh) for many renewable energy options for nine years, if they are on-line by the end of 2007. On the other hand, the Act does not provide for a national renewable portfolio standard (RPS)—which would have had significant impacts, particularly on the development of new wind projects.
The Price of Carbon in 2008-2012: Scenarios for Investment Appraisal
ICF International has developed a comprehensive report based on a fundamental analysis to forecast CO
2 prices under several scenarios. Grounded in leading-edge analysis, the study was developed using sector- and country-specific marginal abatement cost curves for all gases and our proprietary tool, the
Integrated Planning Model (IPM®) , a dynamic, linear, integrated model of the power sector that has supported more than 100 Gigawatts (GW) of power market investments in the last four years alone.
The Role of Energy Efficiency in the Future of the Electric Utility Industry: A Parable of Adolescence
Published in
Natural Gas & Electricity, May 2005, by ICF International's Val Jensen. Energy efficiency has been part of mainstream utility regulatory policy for more than a quarter of a century now. Yet in many ways, the policy and business of energy efficiency is trapped in adolescence, attempting to adjust to fundamental changes in the utility industry and a gradually maturing business model. This article examines the conceptual roots of energy efficiency regulatory policy, identifies weaknesses in some of the traditional regulatory approaches, and briefly explores several possible future regulatory and business models for energy efficiency.
Transmission Turns the Corner
Published in
EEI Electric Perspectives , September/October 2005, by Elliot Roseman of ICF International. Transmission has been a stepchild of the power industry—until recently. There now appears to be sufficient political, economic, and regulatory forces in play; sufficient recent investment activity; and sufficient dynamism in the market to make it likely that adequate transmission facilities will be developed going forward. Factors such as integrated resource planning (IRP), regional transmission organizations (RTO), renewable energy, and baseload energy development will all encourage transmission, and there are six different models of transmission development that are active in the market. The recently-passed
Energy Policy Act gives a further push to grid expansion. Gaining approval to site transmission is far from easy, but nevertheless, it appears that transmission has turned the corner.
2004 Publications
Allocation of Carbon Emission Certificates in the Power Sector: How Generators Profit from Grandfathered Rights
Written by Kim Keats Martínez of ICF International and Karsten Neuhoff of the Department of Applied Economics (DAE), University of Cambridge, as part of the Cambridge-MIT (CMI) Electricity Project, DAE Working Paper Series, September 2004. The authors assess the impact of the European Union's Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS)—Europe's cap-and-trade scheme for CO
2 due to kick off from 2005—on a typical pulverized coal-fired power station and more modern gas-fired combined cycle plant.
Are We Better Off?
Written by Elliot Roseman of ICF International and published in
World-Generation , September/October 2004. This article assesses the pluses and minuses of the actions taken to improve the reliability of the power grid one year after the major August 2003 blackout that affected more than 50 million people in the Midwest and Northeastern parts of the United States and Canada. In specific, the article identifies more than a dozen areas of both positive action and not-so-positive inaction to address the question of whether we are better off now than we were on August 13, 2003. The answer is decidedly mixed to date. The article provides a number of recommendations (including more joint state consideration of transmission lines, the creation of more stand-alone transmission entities, the incorporation of "value of lost load" into the assessment of transmission additions, etc.) for how to improve where we stand.
Asia: One Region, Many Markets
Published in
Commodities Now , September 2004. A joint piece by Whitman Fulton, Neil Cornelius, Kim Keats, and Abyd Karmali of ICF International, this article aims to breakdown the myth of the monolithic "Asian" energy market and in its place offer a point-by-point summary of energy markets in four of the region’s major economies: China, Japan, South Korea, and India. To help illustrate the differences between the markets, the authors present an index ranking each in terms of key indicators such as growth, liberalization, supply diversity, and access.
Becoming an ENERGY STAR® Partner
Published in
Today's Lighting Distributor , September/October 2004, by Jeffrey Schwartz. This article explains to distributors the benefits of becoming an ENERGY STAR® partner—including increasing sales and profits—and how to participate in the voluntary program developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Department of Energy to identify quality products that save energy and protect the environment.
Building a Path towards Zero Energy Homes with Energy Efficiency Upgrades
Prepared by Dean Gamble, Brian Dean, and David Meisegeier of ICF International along with Jay Hall of Building Knowledge for the 2004 American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, August 2004. This paper develops an iterative approach to promoting affordable and durable Zero Energy Home construction based on the availability, cost effectiveness, and energy savings potential of various energy efficiency measures, passive solar design, and on-site renewable energy generation.
CHP Emissions Calculator
The CHP Emissions Calculator (EC), launched in August 2004 by
EEA, an ICF International Company , is a tool to estimate the net air pollution emissions from a small CHP system. The EC performs calculation for NO
x , SO
2 , CO
2 , and mercury (Hg). This
Microsoft Excel spreadsheet calculates net emissions based on information provided by the user and default information provided by the system. The net emissions are calculated from three primary components: on-site emissions from the CHP system; displaced emissions from on-site thermal production (i.e., steam boiler); displaced emissions from off-site generation of electricity. The net emissions equal the emissions from CHP minus the displaced emissions from thermal production and electricity production.
Electricity Prices: What to Look Out For
Written by Kim Keats Martínez and published in
Carbon Finance , March 2004. This article discusses the potential impact of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on electricity prices. Keats reviews the major drivers of electricity prices: fuel prices, demand growth, renewables obligations, nuclear decommissioning timetables, the nature of the carbon dioxide (CO
2 ) cap, and the interplay with the price of CO
2 emissions allowances. The article also demonstrates the impact that the rules governing the allowance allocation process can have on electricity prices using ICF International’s
Integrated Planning Model® (IPM) .
Generation Asset Valuation: Are We at the Nadir for Gas-Fired Power Plants?
Published in
Electric Light & Power , November/December 2004, by Shanthi Muthiah of ICF International. Some recent transactions have implied very low values for merchant gas-fired power plants. Is this likely to continue or are are markets likely to turnaround? This article discusses some drivers of the loss in value of natural gas power plants. The article also provides a view and the basis for why many markets are likely to turn around in the next few years, with signs of this turnaround anticipated in the next 24 to 36 months.
Getting Necessary Transmission Built: The Value of Reliability and Lost Load
Written by Elliot Roseman and published in
21st Century T&D , Spring 2004. The frequency and the high cost of outages and congestion in the U.S. clearly indicate the need for more transmission investment. However, to determine the right amount of transmission to build requires the right data and forecasts. In that context, this article proposes the use of a new factor for determining how much transmission to build, one that takes into account the economic cost (i.e., the lower GNP) that results from transmission-related outages. When power is unavailable, factories shut down; supermarkets, shopping malls, and office close their doors; and customers lose the food in their refrigerators—and the cost of such outages has increased as the economy has become more dependent on electricity. Regulators and other siting agencies should include the "value of lost load" (VoLL) in future assessments of whether and when to build new transmission, and utilities should build or upgrade transmission where the value in both reduced power costs and increased economic output are greater than the cost.
International Opportunities for Cost-Effective Reductions of Methane Emissions
Written by Don Robinson and Daniel Lieberman of ICF International, and Roger Fernandez of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), this article was featured in
Oil & Gas Journal , July 12, 2004, under the title
"U.S. Natural Gas STAR Program Success Points to Global Opportunities to Cut Methane Emissions Cost-Effectively." The authors present numerous opportunities currently available to reduce methane emissions in countries with large and/or growing natural gas industries. Many of these options can reduce emissions while simultaneously increasing profits or decreasing costs. The article quantifies these opportunities, examines emerging emission reduction markets that can offer an additional revenue stream beyond increased gas sales, and includes some actual examples of international projects that will achieve methane emission reductions and claim credits under international schemes. The analysis is an example of global marginal abatement cost studies ICF International has performed for the EPA Natural Gas STAR Program, a public-private partnership with the U.S. natural gas industry.
Judging the Quality of a Lighting Project
Published in
Today's Lighting Distributor , November/December 2004, by Jeffrey Schwartz of ICF International. The first in a series of five articles on energy-efficient lighting projects explains efficacy, efficiency, watts per square foot, life-cycle cost tools, and how they relate to energy efficiency and the quality of a lighting project. The article explains how lamp efficacy and fixture efficiency must both be considered when evaluating a project, and how to use watts per square foot as a true measure of the project's energy efficiency.
Natural Gas Issues for U.S. Power Generation
This report was prepared by
EEA, an ICF International Company , for the National Commission on Energy Policy in May 2004. This paper examines the background of the issues and the likely implications related to construction of gas-fired power plants and stringent environmental requirements on power plants. The rapid recent growth and the prospect for continued growth have made power generation the focus of much of the concern over the current imbalance between gas supply and demand. Power generation is the second largest component of U.S. natural gas consumption and the fastest growing gas-consuming sector. For an overview, read the
Executive Summary .
Natural Gas Price Impacts and Implications for U.S. Industry
This report was prepared by
EEA, an ICF International Company , for the National Commission on Energy Policy in May 2004. As natural gas prices have increased in recent years, there has been increasing concern over their effect on industrial sector competitiveness, jobs, and the economy in general. Economic declines have been attributed to the gas price increases in 2000-01 and 2003. There is also concern that high gas prices could result in permanent shutdown of gas-intensive industries, reducing gas demand. Such "demand destruction" in the industrial sector could result in lower demand for gas. which could subsequently temper gas price levels and minimize volatility, though at the cost of U.S. productive output and jobs.
Profiting from Transmission Investment: A Holistic Approach to Cost-Benefit Analysis
Published in
Public Utilities Fortnightly , October 2004, by Kojo Ofori-Atta, Elliot Roseman, and Bansari Saha of ICF International, and Scott Stuart, Marc Lipschultz, and Jonathan Smidt of KKR. Many prognosticators have indicated that more electric transmission investment is required, particularly in light of North America's major blackout in 2004, but how much investment is appropriate? How much is needed to maintain reliability, and how much to lower the wholesale cost of power? This article evaluates the optimal level of transmission investment over an extended period (2004-2030), accounting for alternative investments to meet load. The analysis finds the "right" amount to be about $60 billion in nominal dollars overall ($43 billion in net present value), with about $12 billion of that amount ($8 billion NPV) used to lower the cost of power.
Sector Profiles of Significant Large CHP Markets
This report by
EEA, an ICF International Company , describes a market assessment, released in March 2004, of the 2-50 MW combined heat and power (CHP) market and near-term opportunities for a fixed set of CHP technologies. This size range has been the biggest contributor to the traditional inside-the-fence CHP market to date. Three promising sectors were identified at the conclusion of market assessment: chemicals, food, pharmaceuticals.
Serving Up Savings with ENERGY STAR® Qualified Commercial Foodservice Equipment
Published in
OutFront Magazine , Fall 2004, by Mehernaz Polad of ICF International. This article is targeted towards manufacturers' representatives for foodservice equipment, providing information on the benefits of ENERGY STAR® qualified equipment versus standard equipment. The article contains general information about ENERGY STAR®, which foodservice products are currently eligible to qualify under the program, monetary savings associated with the products, and how manufacturers would benefit from joining the program.
The Benefits of Selling ENERGY STAR®® Qualified Products
Published in
Today's Lighting Distributor , July/August 2004, by Jeffrey Schwartz. Today there are more than 60 ENERGY STAR® Manufacturing Partners offering in excess of 9,000 models of light fixtures that meet the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's and U.S. Department of Energy's qualifications for quality products that save energy and protect the environment. This article explains to distributors how to increase sales, profits, and customer satisfaction by selling these energy-efficient lighting products, rather than standard models.
Transmission Investments Reduce Power Costs and Improve the Economy
Written by Kojo Ofori-Atta, Elliot Roseman, Bansari Saha, Christian McCarthy, and Jane Valentino. Prepared for Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., New York, NY. A recent ICF International study, sponsored by KKR & Company, shows that targeted investments in transmission, in conjunction with the right mix of generation, could reduce the wholesale costs of power by 1.5 times its costs. Further, if we include potential benefits from lower reserve margins, the benefits rise to over twice the cost. Finally, if we include the benefits to the U.S. economy due to lower transmission-related outages from these investments (also called "value of lost load"), then these investments return more than 8 times their cost. When calculated on a current per-customer basis, the net present value of the savings would range from $30 to $450.
U.S. Heating Oil Outlook 2004: PADD 1
The analysis cautions industry and consumers to prepare for heating oil supply uncertainty in addition to high prices this coming winter. It outlines the underlying market factors which are contributing to this assessment, including higher demand growth in transportation fuels, more constrained refinery operation and turnarounds, European diesel specification changes and the impact on imports, and, of course, the weather.
What is ENERGY STAR®?
Published in
Today's Lighting Distributor , May/June 2004, by Jeffrey Schwartz. This article provides a preliminary understanding of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's and U.S. Department of Energy's voluntary program that identifies quality products that save energy and protect the environment, and why it is important to National Association of Independent Lighting Distributors (NAILD) members.
2003 Publications
Allocation Promises EU Power Shake-Up
Published in
Environmental Finance March 2003, by Abyd Karmali. ©Environmental Finance 2003. All rights reserved. Used by permission. This article discusses how the European Union's Emissions Trading Directive will possibly result in the most significant change to competitiveness within the European power sector since the single market for electricity in Europe was launched in the mid-1990s. The directive forces the power generation sector to begin operating under constraints of greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts will include changes in the wholesale power prices for electricity in each of the Member States and significant changes to the fundamental values of specific power plant assets.
Balancing Act: Quality & Efficiency
Written by Paul Vrabel of ICF International, and published in
Architectural Lighting , August 1, 2003. Many utilities and energy-efficiency organizations support high-quality, energy-efficient design. This article examines three programs sponsored by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, DesignLights Consortium (DLC), and ENERGY STAR®. These organizations are conducting extensive outreach efforts and have developed numerous materials to help manufacturers, designers, distributors, contractors, facility managers, owners and occupants increase their knowledge of energy-efficient, high-quality design and lighting technologies.
Cascading Blackout: Why Wasn't the Power Outage Contained? An Issue Paper on the U.S. Northeastern Blackout of August 2003
August 19, 2003 - This paper outlines the competitive pressures on existing transmission grid operations. The sometimes conflicting goals of providing reliability, moderating power prices, deferring transmission investments, and avoiding the economic liabilities associated with third-party power transactions can cause transmission operators to take greater risks with the grid than they have in the past. This paper explains why the blackout was able to cascade throughout the northeastern United States and portions of Canada, and not contained locally? Lastly, Phil Mihlmester of ICF International goes one step further with recommendations for action to prevent future cascading blackout occurrences.
Design Focus Report: Hospitality Lighting
Published in
Architectural Lighting , April 2003, by Paul Vrabel. Vrabel writes about an energy efficient bulbs encountered in hotel rooms during his
energy efficiency journeys for ICF International. Over the past several years, compact fluorescent lamps (CFL) have taken the hospitality industry by storm in response to hotels looking to reduce operating costs. The hospitality industry's desire to reduce energy costs is evident by the more than 8,000 individual hotels partnering with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's E
NERGY S
TAR ®
program, including Hilton, Hyatt, Marriott and Starwood properties. Vrabel describes how hotels can minimize operating costs and select the proper lighting to meet their aesthetic demands.
Design Focus Report: Residential Lighting
Written by Paul Vrabel of ICF International, and published in
Architectural Lighting , August 1, 2003. As the average home is increasing in size, there is an ever-increasing demand for more energy-efficient residential lighting. However, focusing on the technology is only half the issue. This article examines the many design techniques for the home that will help utilize light more efficiently and effectively.
Design Focus Report: Retail Lighting
Published in
Architectural Lighting , March 2003, by Paul Vrabel. Whether it is a grocery store, convenience store, "big box," or high-end retail, merchants have realized the importance of lighting to help attract customers and sell merchandise. In addition, many retailers understand the significant operating cost of lighting and are looking for ways to reduce their expenditures. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) E
NERGY S
TAR ®
program's retail experts state that for grocery stores, "saving $1 in energy costs can improve profits as much as increasing sales by $80." Vrabel analyzes retail lighting needs and how they can be met with energy efficient lighting systems. Read more about ICF International's work supporting the EPA's
ENERGY STAR ® energy efficiency programs .
Doing One's Bidding: The SMART Way
Published in ICF International's
Perspectives , a quarterly report that provides executive briefs on key insights and perspectives, Winter 2003. The full article, "Doing One's Bidding: The "SMART" Way—FERC's SMD Proposal Brings Back Competitive Bidding With a Vengeance," was written by Elliot Roseman and published in
Public Utilities Fortnightly , December 2002. This article examines how fundamental changes in the market plus the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's Standard Market Design (SMD) and Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) initiatives will soon bring back competitive bidding with a vengeance. Competitive bidding will not be the same as it was in the previous "Golden Age" of bidding from 1984-95, since the demands of regional planning and SMD will require new approaches and criteria. Learn Roseman's take on the new bidding approach, which he refers to as the "Standard Market Allocation of Resources Technique" (SMART). To be "SMART," bidding will have several features: it will evaluate the tradeoffs between all resources, including transmission, generation, and load management; it may be conducted by new entities (e.g., RTOs); it will need to be time efficient; and it will require new evaluation criteria—and perhaps standard criteria—to streamline the evaluation process.
Emissions Trading and EU Power Markets: Allowance Allocation—The Critical Determinant of Value
ICF International’s 2003 analysis of the European power sector, which accounts for more than 30 percent of total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Europe, demonstrates the changing scenarios that will affect company strategies as GHG constraints are introduced in Europe, beginning as early as 2005. The shift to natural gas, the increased value of existing gas-fired assets, and the likely retirement of coal-fired assets are just a few of the possible implications discussed in the study. In our assessments, ICF International employs its proprietary
Integrated Planning Model® (IPM®), a dynamic linear programming model that forecasts the least-cost means of meeting electricity generation energy and capacity requirements while complying with European Union carbon emissions constraints.
Emissions: Where are the Traders?
Written by John Blaney and published in
Public Utilities Fortnightly , June 15, 2003. Significant obstacles stand in the way of achieving cost saving that should accrue to market-based emissions trading policies. This article examines the challenges facing the emissions trading markets, including the financial crisis gripping the energy industry and a halt in electric market restructuring. As a result of these challenges, market-based emissions trading programs must try to function within a patchwork quilt, with each state operating by its own set of rules. Learn ICF International's focus on compliance strategies that minimize near-term earnings impacts.
European Power and Carbon Markets Outlook 2009-2030
ICF International’s European Power and Carbon Markets Outlook 2009-2030 provides market and policy analyses along with price projections for European wholesale power and carbon allowances. Two individual chapters, focusing on the power sector and the Emission Trading Scheme, address the impacts of the current economic downturn and the ambitious long-term renewable and climate change targets recently approved by the European Union. Companies can customize their study by purchasing an individual chapter or the entire integrated study. Subscribers receive electronic and paper copies of the report, a free on-site energy and carbon markets seminar, and a discounted-price valuation study of power sector assets.
Gas-Fired Distributed Energy Resource Technology Characterizations
This October 2003 report by
EEA, an ICF International Company , describes the current status and future potential of six natural gas-fired distributed energy resource technologies through the year 2030. The six DER power technologies are reciprocating engines; small industrial gas turbines (1 MW to 40 MW); microturbines; small steam turbines; fuel cells; and Stirling engines. While these technologies are capable of utilizing a variety of fuels in a range of applications, the focus for these characterizations is in electric power and combined heat and power (CHP) applications using natural gas.
How Sausage Gets Made at FERC...
Written by Elliot Roseman and published in
World-Generation in May/June 2003, this article addresses the impacts of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC) recently-issued "White Paper" modifying its proposal for Standard Market Design (SMD) in electric power markets. First, SMD has become the Wholesale Power Market Platform (WPMP). More substantively, the article indicates that the FERC has turned responsibility back to the states for resource planning, and offers flexibility (not "standard" approaches) for congestion management and tariffs, while holding the line on regional market monitoring and independent Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) boards, among other items. The bottom line is that FERC has retreated to a position that it hopes will win approval from recalcitrant state regulators and federal legislators. However, whether this compromises too much, whether it achieves the goals of facilitating markets and appropriate investments, and whether it is, in effect, "whatever people may propose, remains to be seen.
In Search of Transmission Capitalists
Written by Elliot Roseman and Paul De Martini and published in
Public Utilities Fortnightly , April 1, 2003. This article examines the future of transmission financing and the surprising new sources of private funding for transmission expansion. With the need for transmission upgrades and expansions to support increasing transactions, utilities will be seeking nontraditional sources of capital with interests in transmission. The "capex" (capital expenditure) gap can be filled by investors seeking to fund projects with long economic life, stability, and regulated returns, such as electricity infrastructure projects. Roseman and De Martini outline the likely types of investors and what they stand to gain from partnering with utilities.
Measuring the Economic Costs of Terrorist Attacks
Published in ICF International's
Perspectives , a quarterly report that provides executive briefs on key insights and perspectives, Summer 2003.
ICF International and Regional Economic Models, Inc., (REMI) have been exploring methodologies and models to better understand the near- and long-term economic effects of terrorist attacks. This report, which uses data collected from two hypothetical scenarios, highlights the temporal and cross-sector complexities of modeling such damages, because the ripple effects across sectors and geographies may be significant but difficult to predict. The analysis estimates the direct costs related to an attack on the California electricity transmission grid and a deliberate spreading of Foot and Mouth disease in an agricultural state.
Natural Gas Impacts of Increased CHP
This October 2003 report by
EEA, an ICF International Company , discusses how recent increases in natural gas prices have raised concerns about the balance of U.S. natural gas supply and demand. While there are efforts to increase gas supply, there is agreement that increased efficiency will be a primary requirement to address the issue in the near to medium term. Although combined heat and power (CHP) is among the most immediately available and widely applicable efficiency options, the fact that it involves the installation of new gas-fired equipment may raise concerns about its ability to reduce overall gas consumption.
Power Crisis: The Omission of Transmission - An Issue Paper on the U.S. Northeastern Blackout, August 14, 2003
August 15, 2003 - The recent massive power outage in North America, affecting 50 million people in seven states in the United States and Canada, stems from the way in which the transmission system has been planned and developed over the past 20-30 years. While the specific cause of the outage is still being determined, the signs of substantial deterioration in the power grid have been building for years. Elliot Roseman of ICF International explores the root causes of the problem.
Quality and Efficiency Can Coexist
Published in
Architectural Lighting , January/February 2003, by Paul Vrabel. Over the years, the term "energy-efficient lighting" has developed some negative connotations. However, energy-efficient lighting does not need to be ugly, ineffective, or poor quality. Vrabel describes high-quality, energy-efficient lighting systems, which minimize energy (operations) and maintenance costs while meeting aesthetic and human visual performance requirements.
The European Transmission Conundrum—More Outages Suffered and More Investment Required
October 6, 2003 - By Simon Allen of ICF International. The summer of 2003 will be remembered for record-high temperatures in Europe, coupled with electricity outages across the Continent—most notably in Italy, Denmark, Sweden, and London. Although the factors vary, the common theme is that Europe’s electricity transmission infrastructure cannot support the workings of an internal electricity market. For transmission to play its part in a fully liberalised market, a significant expansion and rationalisation of the European electricity transmission network are required. Capital investment also is required to increase interconnector capacity and reduce congestion.
Winning in the European Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Scheme: Insights for Power Generators
Published in
WorldPower 2003 , by Abyd Karmali and Neil Cornelius. ©WorldPower 2003. All rights reserved. Used by permission. This article discusses a new ICF International study, which illustrates that greenhouse gas emissions policy is likely to be the biggest determinant of power plant asset value in the European power generation sector. Power stations in the United Kingdom will make more money with carbon emissions trading—thus bringing the market back into balance and strengthening wholesale prices. The critical variable that determines who wins and by how much is the permit allocation mechanism. Market participants would be well advised to undertake detailed analysis to ensure they obtain a positive outcome from the permit allocation decision.
2002 Publications
2002 European Wholesale Power Outlook
Comprehensive analysis provides an understanding of the dynamics of the competitive electric markets, based on solid, credible analysis of the underlying fundamentals. The studies provide forecasts of European regional power prices and capacity expansion for 2002, 2005, and 2010 based on detailed modeling of existing and planned generation units, with explicit consideration of fuel prices, transmission flows, and constraints between regions.
A Tale of Two Transmission Systems
This is a revised version of a piece that appeared in Elsevier Science's
Electricity Journa l . Full article published in
Electricity Journal , April 2002, by Elliot Roseman. ©2002 Elsevier Science. All rights reserved. Used by permission. This article summarizes the five key objectives identified by ICF International to streamline the wholesale power industry and lower long-term energy costs through the creation of Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs), clearer regulations, ownership consolidation, short-term investments, and new technologies.
Average Displaced Emissions Rate (ADER): Approach and Methodology
Prepared by Tom Kerr and Rick Morgan of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Juanita Haydel and Bishal Thapa of ICF International, April 2002. EPA Climate Protection Partnerships Division and ICF International have developed a new approach to estimating the potential for displaced emissions, which accounts for the intergrated response of power markets to changes in electricity demand/supply and may be applied to a wide range of energy efficiency measures and clean energy technologies.
Emissions Forecasting for the Southern Appalachian Mountain Initiative
Prepared by Jay Hall and Matt Howes of ICF International, along with Tom Elmore of Land of Sky for the 2002 American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE) Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, August 2002. This paper discusses a project funded by the Southern Appalachian Mountain Initiative (SAMI) to assess energy savings and greenhouse gas reduction potentials for commercial and residential buildings in that region. The project evaluated the potential energy and emissions impacts, as well as the cost effectiveness, of various packages of energy efficiency measures and incentive strategies.
Energy Efficiency Strategies for Freight Trucking: Potential Impact on Fuel Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
From
Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board , No.1815, Transportation Research Board of the National Academies, Washington, D.C., 2002, pp. 11-18, by Jeffrey Ang-Olson and Will Schroeer of ICF International
. Trucking is the dominant mode of domestic freight and offers a substantial opportunity to improve transportation energy efficiency and reduce the emission of criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG). This report assesses eight trucking strategies to improve efficiency and reduce emissions through voluntary actions under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Ground Freight Transportation Initiative.
Getting Out of Europe at Exactly the Wrong Time
Written by Simon Allen and published in
Electric Perspectives , November/December 2002. Just as many U.S.-owned power companies are packing up and leaving the European market, the power sector there faces an investment boom. There are substantial opportunities in Europe, particularly in generation investments that do not involve over-paying for existing assets. With their painfully won knowledge of the European markets and trading structures already in place, the timing may be right for U.S. power companies to keep their suitcases in the closet rather than packing up and heading home.
Unit Costs of Constructing New Transmission Assets at 380kV Within the European Union, Norway, and Switzerland
This ICF International study was prepared in 2002 at the request of the European Commission DG TREN. Its main purpose was to assist the European Commission in its understanding of the construction costs of the high voltage electricity transmission network, which will potentially be applied to cross-border exchanges of electricity within the 15 Member States of the European Union, Norway, and Switzerland. The report included a review of the costs using data from the transmission companies, regulators, and suppliers, including a review of the impact of research and development into the cost of constructing new transmission lines, the calculation of asset values, network charges, and accounting treatment of transmission assets.
2001 Publications
Benchmarking Distribution Companies
Published in the Electricity supplement of
Energy & Power Risk Management, March 2001 pp. 10-13, by Paul Nillesen and Job Telling (
http://www.eprmonline.com ) ©2001 Risk Waters Group. All rights reserved. Used by permission. This article examines the Dutch energy regulator's approach to assessing the comparative efficiency of the Dutch electricity sector and explores an alternative assessment method.
Electricity Demand Response
Published in ICF International's
Consult , a quarterly report that provides executive briefs on key insights and perspectives, Winter 2001/2002.
European Electricity Markets
Published in ICF International's
Consult , a quarterly report that provides executive briefs on key insights and perspectives, Summer 2001.
Europe's Lesson in Volatility
by Abyd Karmali. July 2001,
Utility Europe , page 9, Commentary. Find out the three lessons in Europe's early experience in deregulating and liberalising electricity markets.
Game Theory: Retail Power Markets Explained
Published in
The Risk Desk, May 28, 2001, by Paul De Martini. This article explains retail power markets within the context of game theory, a branch of economics focused on behavior related to interactive decision problems.
Risk Desk articles reprinted with permission of the publisher. Scudder Publishing Group, LLC. © 2001.
Green Power: An Expanding Niche
Published in ICF International's
Consult , a quarterly report that provides executive briefs on key insights and perspectives, Summer 2001.
Public Power Risk Management
Published in
The Risk Desk, July 27, 2001, by Paul De Martini. This article highlights private sector techniques that could be used for better public power risk management.
Risk Desk articles reprinted with permission of the publisher. Scudder Publishing Group, LLC. © 2001.
Strategic Benchmarking: Indentifying and Quantifying the Gains from M&A
Published in
Energy & Power Risk Management, June 2001 pp. 42-45, by Paul Nillesen, Michael Pollitt, and Kim Keats (
http://www.eprm.com ) ©2001 Risk Waters Group. All rights reserved. Used by permission. This article examines the use of benchmarking techniques, such as data envelope analysis, to help energy firms assess and determine the potential gains from mergers and aquisitions activity.
Survival of the Fittest—Maximizing Returns on Energy Portfolios
First published in
Energy & Power Risk Management , October 2001, by Nathan Collamer, Grace Lo, Philip Mihlmester, William Pepper, et al. (www.eprm.com) ©2001 Risk Waters Group. All rights reserved. Used by permission.
Click here for further information from the Risk Waters Group. This article presents a framework using stochastic optimization to develop a strategy for energy asset portfolio expansion and the operation of that porfolio to deliver maximum shareholder value while managing risk.
The Retail Risk List
Published in
EEI Electric Perspectives , Sept./Oct. 2001, Vol. 27, No. 5, by S. Balakrishnan. This article identifies and discusses several risks faced by energy retailers.
2000 Publications
A Comparison of Lighting Market Transformation Programs in New York, New England, Wisconsin, California, and the Pacific Northwest
By Paul Vrabel, Kathryn Gaffney, and Heidi Curry. Reprinted with permission from American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, ©2000, Washington, D.C. Published in Proceedings of the ACEEE 2000 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 6.431-6.442. For information about the ACEEE proceedings, contact
http://www.aceee.org. This paper reviews seven large residential lighting market-transformation (MT) programs and aims to provide insight into key strategies.
Best Practice Upgrades for New Energy Efficient Homes in Hot and Humid Climates
Prepared by David Meisegeier and Jay Hall of ICF International for the 12th Symposium on Improving Building Systems in Hot and Humid Climates, May 2000. This paper explains the technical methodology used to develop the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) prescriptive Builder Option Packages in hot and humid climates and illustrates the energy efficiency implications of design choices.
Crediting Energy Efficiency Measures Under Air Emissions Programs
By Steve Fine and Chloe Weil. Reprinted with permission from American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, ©2000, Washington, D.C. Published in Proceedings of the ACEEE 2000 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 10.99-10.110. For information about the ACEEE proceedings, contact
http://www.aceee.org. This paper focuses on measurement and verification challenges that an entity such as a state would face when trying to design a system to credit energy efficiency measures either under a cap and trade or an open inventory system. It also examines several of the tools and protocol that have been developed to support the crediting of energy efficiency and renewable measures.
Marketing Green and Banking Carbon
By Todd Davis, Steven Fine, and Phil Mihlmester (2000). This paper defines green power resources and offers a rationale for commodity differentiation via this resource. The growth and potential of green power markets is examined, with reference to experience in key open market states. Potential for higher retail margins on green power products is also examined. Finally, the paper presents an overview of the complex issue of carbon credits associated with green power.
Millwork 101: Transforming the Market for Energy-Efficient Windows
by Philip E. Mihlmester, Michael Gibbs, William E. Grimm, and James Stimmel. Reprinted with permission from American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, ©2000, Washington, D.C. Published in Proceedings of the ACEEE 2000 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings 2.201-2.212. For information about the ACEEE proceedings, contact
http://www.aceee.org. This paper describes several innovative approaches to transforming markets for energy-efficient windows, primarily in the replacement market but also affecting new construction practice. The paper is based on actual program and field experience for a major California program, including lessons learned.
More Lessons Learned in the ENERGY STAR® Homes Program
by Eric Werling, Blaine Collison, and Jay Hall. Reprinted with permission from American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, ©2000, Washington, D.C. Published in Proceedings of the ACEEE 2000 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 2.335-2.246. For information about the ACEEE proceedings, contact
http://www.aceee.org. This paper provides an update on the ENERGY STAR® Homes program, including a description of successes, failures, challenges already faced, and opportunities ahead.
New Product Development: The Pipeline for Future ENERGY STAR® Growth
by Marla C. Sanchez, Robin Clark, Andrew Fanara, Craig Hershberg, and Rachel Schmeltz. Reprinted with permission from American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, ©2000, Washington, D.C. Published in Proceedings of the ACEEE 2000 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 6.343-6.354. For information about the ACEEE proceedings, contact
http://www.aceee.org. This paper focuses on the efforts of the Product Development (PD) team in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's ENERGY STAR Labeling Branch. The PD team serves as the pipeline to fuel the long-term market transformation process by delivering new programs. PD's goal is to expand the reach and visibility of ENERGY STAR as well as the market for new energy-efficient products.
The Role of Rebates in Market Transformation: Friend or Foe?
By Michael Gibbs and Jeanne C. Townend. Reprinted with permission from American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, ©2000, Washington, D.C. Published in Proceedings of the ACEEE 2000 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 6.121-6.132. For information about the ACEEE proceedings, contact
http://www.aceee.org. Learn about a proposed theoretical framework for discussing the role of rebates in successful market transformation programs. The paper discusses the potential attributes and drawbacks of rebates in reaching market transformation, and a proposed new bidding process to assist in setting incentive levels and product quantities that are matched with market characteristics.
1999 Publications
Environmental Benefits of Advanced Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Technology
October 1999. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) issued a report on the environmental benefits of advances in oil and gas exploration and production technology. The report was prepared by a team comprised of DOE's Office of Natural Gas and Petroleum Technology, ICF International, and Brandegee, Inc., and details the roles of oil and natural gas in our daily lives. It documents the evolution of technologies that discover, find, and produce oil and gas resources—and describes how these same technologies have dramatically reduced the impacts of industry operations on the environment.
U.S. Methane Emissions 1999-2020: Inventories, Projections, and Opportunities for Reductions
September 1999. This analysis of methane emissions, prepared by ICF International for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, is the first comprehensive examination of the opportunities and costs of reducing emissions from the major U.S. sources of methane: landfills, livestock manure systems, natural gas, and coal mining. This methane analysis provides a key missing element in the debate over the economic role of other greenhouse gases in any nationwide emissions reduction strategy. An article about this study was published in
Science magazine, titled
"Costs of Multi-Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets for the USA," October 29, 1999.
1998 Publications
These articles represent a selection of our perspectives on Energy & Resources.
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