The Gas Compass is a quarterly report that provides a comprehensive projection of gas supply, demand, pipeline flows, price, and basis for the U.S. and Canada, as well as for regional markets through 2035. The Compass is produced by ICF’s natural gas market experts, based on results from the Gas Market Model (GMM©), ICF’s proprietary model of the North American gas market. Over the past ten years, the GMM© has been used for dozens of studies for private sector clients as well as leading industry organizations such as the National Petroleum Council (NPC), the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America (INGAA), and America’s Natural Gas Alliance (ANGA).
Key Issues Addressed
Gas Supply
- What is the potential growth of shale gas production?
- How will conventional production hold up as shale gas production changes?
- What impacts will the drilling moratorium have on offshore gas production?
Gas Demand
- What impact will pending emissions regulations have on growth in gas-fired generation?
- Will industrial demand recover after the recession? If so, by how much?
- In which regions is demand growing?
- Will the U.S. become a major exporter of LNG?
Pipeline Capacity and Flows
- How much new capacity will be needed to support gas demand and supply growth? Where will the new capacity be needed?
- What pipeline flows will be displaced as production from the shales changes?
- How will the construction of new pipelines affect future flow patterns?
Natural Gas Storage
- How much new storage capacity will be needed?
- How will the growth of power sector gas demand impact storage utilization?
- How will the value of gas storage change over time?
Gas Prices and Basis
- Will gas prices return to pre-recession levels?
- How will the growth of shale production affect basis to different markets?
- How will seasonal price spreads change as power sector demand increases?
The Gas Market Compass Includes…
- Summary – A presentation that outlines major assumptions and our projection for the North American market.
- Demand — Projections for regional gas consumption for the U.S. and Canada by sector, including residential, commercial, industrial, power, pipeline fuel, and lease and plant gas consumption.
- Supply — Projections for regional gas production for the U.S. and Canada, including projections for individual shale plays, conventional and unconventional gas production, and offshore production.
- Supply/Demand Balances – National and regional gas market balances, including total production, total consumption, imports, exports, and storage injection and withdrawal activity.
- Prices and Basis – Average annual price at Henry Hub and other major market hubs, basis between major hubs, and seasonal gas prices.
- Pipeline Capacities and Flows – Maps that illustrate changes in inter-regional pipeline capacities and flows through 2035.
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