For the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), ICF is conducting a detailed analysis of the impacts of temperature change on the U.S. electric power sector. This analysis is using the Integrated Planning Model (IPM®), which includes every major electricity production facility in the United States, to simulate potential impacts on the electric system resulting from changes in electrical demand and supply in response to a changing climate under three scenarios: a reference case, a low-emission scenario, and a high-emission scenario.
The supply impacts that are being estimated included effects on plant-rated capacity and heat rate, while demand changes include effects on space heating and cooling. ICF is also preliminarily modeling sensitivities of electricity demand to changes in population and daily temperature variability. The results, which are being articulated for 32 major regions in the United States, will include nationwide estimates of climate-driven changes in needed production capacity, pricing, and other key aspects of electricity production and the grid.
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