Insights from the Q2 Volume of ICF’s Integrated Energy Outlook

Presenters

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  John Blaney

  Senior Vice PresidentICF International

  John Blaney is a nationally known energy/environment economist with 30 years of experience evaluating energy markets.  Mr. Blaney has worked both nationally and internationally, including 1.5 years working in London to manage ICF’s European operations.  He currently serves as managing editor of ICF’s Integrated Energy Outlook, which provides ICF’s assessment of US electric power, renewable, natural gas, coal, and environmental markets.  He also directs ICF’s coal practice. With a 30-year career at ICF, he has worked across the complete range of energy supply and demand issues from fossil fuel supply, electric demand forecasting, integrated resource planning, RD&D investment strategy, and pollution control compliance strategy.  Mr. Blaney holds an M.S. in Public Policy and Management from the Heinz College at Carnegie-Mellon University.

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  Chris MacCracken

  PrincipalICF International

  Chris MacCracken has more than 15 years of experience in energy and economic modeling and assessing the potential impacts of environmental policies on the energy sector. He has directed a number of studies examining the impacts of environmental regulation on emission, power and fuel markets, compliance planning, and electric generating unit valuations for electric utilities, independent power producers (IPPs), industry associations, and nonprofit policy organizations. He is lead author of the Emission Markets chapter in ICF International’s quarterly Integrated Energy Outlook publication.

  Prior to joining ICF in 2000, Mr. MacCracken worked with the Global Climate Change Group at Battelle-Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. He modeled the impacts of climate change policy and the role of advanced technologies in mitigating climate change.

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  Dave Gerhardt

  PrincipalICF International

  An energy analyst with more than 15 years of experience in energy economics and energy engineering issues, David Gerhardt is ICF's lead power generation engineer in wholesale power. His recent work has focused on combined heat and power, asset valuation, wholesale power litigation, risk management, and power plant air permits. The lead analyst in the financial restructuring of a distressed portfolio of power assets, he is developing a power plant siting and power plant brokerage service. He previously worked at Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., the New York State Energy Office, and Solarex.

  Mr. Gerhardt has a B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from Rochester Institute of Technology and an M.S. in Energy Management and Policy from the University of Pennsylvania.

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  Kevin Petak

  Vice PresidentICF International

  Kevin Petak, an expert in gas market modeling, has over 26 years of experience in the energy industry. He has directed numerous energy market analyses to support strategic planning needs at energy companies. The analyses have investigated the impact of gas production, gas storage, liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, and pipeline expansions on gas prices, the effect of weather and oil prices on gas markets, and the impact of carbon control strategies on gas markets. They have been widely used to support facilities/fuels/contracts management and planning, mergers and acquisitions, investment decisions, risk management, and hedge strategies.

  Mr. Petak has directed gas market modeling work for the National Petroleum Council, America’s Natural Gas Alliance, the American Gas Foundation, and the Interstate Natural Gas Association of America. Much of Mr. Petak’s work focuses on projecting market growth and prices for the North American natural gas market by using ICF’s Gas Market Model, a comprehensive gas modeling system that he developed. The ICF model is also the primary tool used for ICF’s gas market subscription services, which Mr. Petak manages. In the past few years, Mr. Petak has completed a number of studies that have investigated the impacts of different regulations on natural gas use and prices. In addition, studies have focused on the amount of natural gas infrastructure that is necessary under different scenarios. Mr. Petak has a M.S. in Business from the University of Texas at Dallas and a B.S. in Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering from the Pennsylvania State University.

• Jeff Archibald

  ManagerICF International

  Mr. Archibald has eighteen years of professional experience performing asset valuations for power plants, coal price and production forecasting, economic assessments, financial analyses, environmental site investigations and remediation, and environmental management system evaluation. He has conducted a number of financial analyses for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and has also conducted numerous environmental site investigations and completed several remedial actions. Mr. Archibald has assisted in the preparation of numerous reports, papers, and presentations, and has constructed several mathematical models to assess the costs and benefits of proposed regulations.

  Mr. Archibald holds a Master of Engineering and a M.B.A. from Cornell University and a B.A. in Physics from Swarthmore College.

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  Patrick Costello

  AssociateICF International

  Patrick Costello is a renewable energy market expert with experience in green premium forward price forecasting, policy analysis, energy asset valuation, technology analysis, and market risk assessment. Mr. Costello regularly models renewable energy supply and demand in a variety of U.S. regions as part of a larger exercise in projecting renewable energy certificate (REC) and solar renewable energy certificate (SREC) prices and evaluating long-term renewable generation development under different market scenarios. He is the author of the Renewable Energy chapter in ICF’s quarterly Integrated Energy Outlook, and he has coauthored numerous other reports that explore market dynamics associated with renewable and conventional energy asset investment strategy across the United States.

  Prior to joining ICF, Mr. Costello served as a development associate at BP Alternative Energy, Wind Power Americas, where he provided market research and geographic siting analysis in support of BP’s East Coast and Midwest wind development.