White Papers

U.S. Coal Competitive in Global Markets

Domestic Production Forecast to Rebound

Categorized Under: Energy



This ICF International white paper examines ICF's forecast of an end to the decline in U.S. coal production. Key topics include:

  • Proposed Pacific Northwest and Gulf Coast coal export terminal growth
  • Pacific Basin demand for coal
  • Comparison of delivered coal prices to Japan
  • Pacific Basin thermal coal market competition
  • New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) for CO2 emissions applied to existing coal power plants
  • Natural gas market competition

The forecast maintains that 2014 will be the nadir for producers and that both domestic and foreign demand will pick up steam to stabilize the business. Demand for the next decade should average approximately 1,000 million short tons per year. The two biggest drivers of contraction—low natural gas prices driving coal-to-gas switching and U.S. Environmental Agency (EPA) CO2 emissions regulations—are likely to weigh less on the coal sector moving forward.

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Authored By

  • Jeff Archibald

    ManagerICF International

    Jeff Archibald has more than 18 years of experience performing asset valuations for power plants, coal price and production forecasting, economic assessments, financial analyses, environmental site investigations and remediation, and environmental management system evaluation. He has conducted a number of financial analyses for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), led numerous environmental site investigations, and completed several remedial actions. Mr. Archibald has assisted in the preparation of numerous reports, papers, and presentations and has constructed several mathematical models to assess the costs and benefits of proposed regulations.

    Mr. Archibald has a Master of Engineering degree and an M.B.A. from Cornell University and a B.A. in Physics from Swarthmore College.

  • Judah Rose

    Senior Vice President and Managing DirectorICF International

    Judah Rose joined ICF International in 1982 and has 30 years of experience in the energy industry with clients such as electric utilities, financial institutions, law firms, government agencies, fuel companies, and independent power producers (IPPs). He is an ICF Distinguished Consultant, an honorary title given to three of ICF's 4,500+ employees. He has served on the ICF Board of Directors as the management shareholder representative.

    Mr. Rose has supported the financing of tens of billions of dollars of new and existing power plants and is a frequent counselor to the financial community. He provides expert testimony and litigation support, addressed approximately 100 major energy conferences, and authored numerous articles.

    Mr. Rose has a B.S. degree in Economics from Massachusetts Institute of Technology and an M.P.P. degree from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

Insight Details

Published: Feb 27, 2014
Authors: , ,

James Wang

Source: ICF International

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