|
Answer Your
Major Energy and Emission Market Questions
ICF's Fall 2008 U.S. Emission
and Fuel Markets Outlook will include impacts of the recent court ruling on
CAIR legislation.
The DC Circuit Court of Appeals overturning of the Clean Air Interstate
Rule (CAIR) will have significant and wide-ranging ramifications that are
only now starting to be fully digested by regulators and the industry. ICF’s
Fall 2008 Emissions and Fuel Market Outlook will examine these still unresolved
issues and look at their implications for allowance markets, control installations,
fuel markets, and plant retirements.
What is the potential for new coal capacity in a carbon-constrained U.S. electric
system? Will SO2 allowance prices hit US$1,500/ton again or will they be
rendered worthless?
Decision makers need
to understand the new fundamentals of the increasingly
complex energy markets. ICF International’s U.S.
Emission and Fuel Markets Outlook answers the call with
the only fully integrated view of emission and fuel
markets available. The study provides market analysis
and price projections for all of the key emission and
fuel market benchmarks.
How will alternative locations for new LNG regasification
facilities affect basis differentials? How are U.S. refinery capacity expansions
going to impact the residual fuel market? |
Please refer to our Terms of Use policy regarding acceptable use of content on the ICF International Web site. |
Companies can customize their study by purchasing an individual
chapter, multiple chapters, or the entire integrated study.
All chapters include analysis of CO2 policies
and price impacts.
Key Issues Addressed
Air Emissions Issues
CO2
- What is the potential for new coal capacity in a carbon-constrained U.S. electric system?
- What are the trade-offs between PCs and IGCCs under different policies?
- What mix of new nuclear, gas-fired, coal-fired, and renewable capacity will be needed to meet future load requirements while complying with potential carbon policies?
- What are U.S. options in a post-Kyoto world?
SO2
- Will SO2 allowance prices hit US$1500/ton
again?
- Do
higher scrubber costs threaten to increase allowance
prices in the near-term?
- Will planned scrubber installations in
the next five years crash the SO2 market?
NOx
- Does Progressive Flow Control still matter?
- Will the slow
withdrawal of the SIP Call bank continue? If so, what
will it mean for the CAIR Ozone market?
- Will the seasonal or annual market
drive control decisions under CAIR?
Mercury
- How will state actions to withdraw from the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency's CAMR cap and trade program affect
mercury allowance prices and emissions?
- How will recent developments
in controlling mercury emissions from subbituminous
coal impact allowance prices and control decisions?
Fuel Market Issues
Natural Gas
- A year after the hurricanes, how is supply recovering
and what does this mean for the future?
- High gas prices
have led to high rates of drilling – —where
is it happening and what is the outlook?
- New pipelines
are connecting western supplies to eastern markets – —what
are the potential impacts?
- Regional gas prices – —how
are the basis differentials developing?
- LNG seems to
be a given, but developments in world markets suggest
LNG at higher prices, and competition from other markets—what
will this mean for prices?
- How will alternative locations
for new LNG regasification facilities change basis
differentials?
Coal
- Will Powder River Coal (PRB) coal prices rise above
US$20/ton again?
- How will new scrubbers impact coal supply,
demand, and prices?
- How much new coal–fired generation
capacity will be built and how will it affect coal
demand, deliverability, and prices?
- Will PRB coal demand continue
to rise?
- Coal-to-Liquids and Gas-to-Liquids—where
are the best opportunities? Will they reduce availability
and raise prices for the generation market?
Oil
- How are U.S. refinery capacity expansions going
to impact the residual fuel market?
- What is the outlook for
petroleum coke as a viable supply alternative to coal?
- Do
the prices of crude oil and natural gas have anything
in common anymore?
- Are increasingly tough sulfur specifications
in gasoline, diesel, and perhaps bunker fuel going
to influence residual fuel price differentials?
ICF International employs a
modeling approach that integrates proprietary and licensed models to
examine power supply and demand,
electric transmission, fuel dynamics
and price, and environmental requirements.
Our Approach
ICF International’s comprehensive new study is based
on more than 15 years of allowance forecasting experience,
30 years of power and fuel market forecasting experience,
and the preeminent fuel/power/emission forecasting platform—ICF
International’s Integrated Planning Model (IPM®).
Table of Contents
- Executive Summary—condensed view
of market, suitable for senior staff
- Regulatory Outlook—ICF's
in-depth take on existing and proposed regulations and
policies
- Market Trends—ICF's
review of historical and current market activity
- Assumptions and Scenarios—description
of key technical assumptions and structure of model runs
- Analytical Approach—summary of
ICF's coal, gas, and power models used to
generate market projections
- Market Projections—detailed reference
and sensitivity scenario results with accompanying narrative
describing market outlook, inter-relationships, and findings
- Tabular Results—appendices detailing
key outputs for each scenario
Deliverables
Subscribers receive three bound copies of the report, a
presentation of forecast results, access to ICF International’s
team of professionals, and a discounted on-site energy market
seminar.
To receive more information about the Outlook―including
scenarios, results, and pricing—please contact: energy@icfi.com or
1.703.934.3637
(energy hotline).
Learn about other Energy Market and Strategy Products and Services from ICF International. |
