U.S. Emission & Fuel Markets Outlook
Winter 2009 Edition

Answer Your Major Energy and Emission Market Questions

The U.S. Emission and Fuel Markets Outlook 2009 includes climate policy scenario analysis and ICF's price forecasts for leading federal cap-and-trade proposals. High ranking members of the Obama Administration and the U.S. Congress have indicated that climate policy could come to the forefront within the coming months. The 2009 Outlook provides insight into what forthcoming proposals could look like based on in-depth examination of existing blueprints for federal action, and expert analysis. How will emission markets respond to recent court rulings on CAIR and CAMR? The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals' overturning of the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) will have significant and wide-ranging ramifications that are only now starting to be fully digested by regulators and the industry. ICF's 2009 Outlook examines these unresolved issues and their implications for fuel and allowance markets, control installations, and plant retirements.

ICF Carbon Market Study Forecasts That Power Sector Will Bear Primary Burden for GHG Reductions Watch Our October 2008 Webinar Fact Sheet Sample Slides Subscription Form Please refer to our Terms of Use policy regarding acceptable use of content on the ICF International Web site.

Other questions addressed in the 2009 Outlook:

• What is the potential for new coal capacity in a carbon-constrained U.S. electric system?
  
  
• Will SO₂ allowance prices hit US$1,500/ton again or will they be rendered worthless?
  
  
• What impact will the economic downturn have on gas prices?
  
  
• How will coal production shift in the U.S. as carbon allowance prices rise?

Decision makers need to understand the new fundamentals of the increasingly complex energy markets. ICF International's U.S. Emission and Fuel Markets Outlook answers the call with the only fully integrated view of emission and fuel markets available.

The study provides market analysis and price projections for all of the key emission and fuel market benchmarks.

Companies can customize their study by purchasing an individual chapter, multiple chapters, or the entire integrated study. All chapters include analysis of CO₂ policies and price impacts.

Key Issues Addressed

Emission Markets

CO₂

• What will be the key drivers of CO₂ allowance prices under a cap and trade program?
• What role will offsets play in a future regulatory regime?
• What mix of new nuclear, gas-fired, coal-fired, and renewable capacity will be needed to meet future load requirements while complying with potential carbon policies?
• What are the prospects for existing coal-fired facilities?

SO₂

• Will SO₂ allowance prices hit $1,500/ton again in response to expected requirements replacing CAIR?
• What will happen to the value of Title IV allowances under a command-and-control regime for SO₂?
• What is the interaction between potentially tighter SO₂ controls and a looming carbon policy?

NO_x

• How will a replacement for CAIR shape the seasonal and annual markets?
• What will carbon policy mean for NO_X allowance prices?

Mercury

• How many mercury controls will be required under a federal Maximum Achievable Control Technology (MACT) program?

Fuel Markets

Natural Gas

• Considering the current state of the economy, what is happening to gas demand today and how will that shape the market in the future?
• How are basis differentials developing given recent supply development and pipeline projects?
• Will production from the shales change the future of the gas market?

Coal

• Will international markets continue to drive U.S. coal prices?
• How will coal producers and consumers adapt to CO₂ regulation?
• How will new scrubbers impact coal supply, demand, and prices?
• Will PRB coal demand continue to rise?

Our Approach

ICF International's comprehensive new study is based on more than 15 years of allowance forecasting experience, 30 years of power and fuel market forecasting experience, and the preeminent fuel/power/emission forecasting platform-ICF International's Integrated Planning Model (IPM®). IPM Plus is an upgraded version of IPM, modeling emissions and emission reduction opportunities across all sectors of economic activity.

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary—condensed view of market, suitable for senior staff
• Regulatory Overview and Market Trends—ICF's in-depth take on existing and proposed regulations and policies, as well as on historical and current market activity
• Results—detailed outputs and analysis for modeled scenarios
• Appendices—Tabular results and key assumptions

Deliverables

Subscribers receive three bound copies of the report, a presentation of forecast results, access to ICF International's team of professionals, and a discounted on-site energy market seminar.

To receive more information about the Outlook, including scenarios, results, and pricing, please contact energy@icfi.com or 1.703.934.3637 (energy hotline).

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