The right tools are crucial to successfully navigating an
uncertain energy future. ICF International employs a unique
modeling approach that integrates proprietary and licensed
models to examine power supply and demand, electric transmission,
fuel dynamics and pricing, and environmental factors. This
approach enables our staff to successfully provide clients
with detailed insights, meaningful conclusions, and actionable
recommendations—based on an integrated and fundamentals-based
view of energy markets.
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Carbon Planning Model (CPM™)
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GEMS®
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GHGPortfolio™
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InCaP™
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Kyoto Project Risk Management System (K-PRISM®)
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Rating and Evaluation System
for Prioritising Investments in Reducing Emissions (RESPIRE®)
A suite of state-of-the-art power market tools underpins
much of our analyses. These tools have been tested repeatedly
in a variety of public forums and in the hearing room. ICF International’s approach includes a focus on fundamentals-based
tools that are applied in order to provide meaningful conclusions
and recommendations to our clients so the right tool or set
of tools is applied to the problem.
IPM® and EADSS™ are registered
trademarks of ICF International
MAPS™ is a registered trademark of General
Electric Company
PowerWorld® is a registered trademark of PowerWorld,
Inc.
Proprietary Tools
 The Integrated Planning Model (IPM®)
IPM provides true integration of wholesale power, system
reliability, environmental constraints, fuel choice, transmission,
capacity expansion, and all key operational elements of generators
on the power grid in a linear optimization framework. The
model utilizes a Windows™-based database platform and
interface that captures a detailed representation of every
electric boiler and generator in the power market being modeled.
ICF International has models of both the North American and
Europe power markets. Uses for IPM include:
- Valuation studies for generation and transmission assets
- Forecasting of regional forward energy and capacity prices
- Air emissions compliance strategies and pollution allowances
- Portfolio optimization strategies
- Impact assessments of alternate environmental regulatory
standards
- Impact assessments of changes in fuel pricing
- Economic or electricity demand growth analysis
- Evaluation of the potential construction options to determine
the optimal mix of new builds or transmission additions
- Assessment of power plant retirement decisions
- Determination of optimal timing decisions for environmental
compliance decisions
- Combined heat and power (CHP) analysis
- Pricing impact of demand responsiveness
- Determination of probability and cost of lost or unserved
load
The fundamental logic behind the model determines the least-cost
means of meeting electric generation energy and capacity
requirements while complying with specified constraints,
including air pollution regulations, transmission constraints,
and plant-specific operational constraints. The versatility
of IPM allows users to specify which constraints to exercise
and populate IPM with their own datasets. Versions of IPM
have been used to support the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency's (EPA) analyses of utility air emissions, and the
recent Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission (FERC) benefit-cost analysis of Regional
Transmission Organizations (RTO).
Gas Market Model (GMM®)
GMM, ICF International’s proprietary non-linear programming software model, provides clients with analysis and forecasts of regional gas markets throughout North America. The structure of GMM incorporates fundamental economic relationships between natural gas price, supply, storage, pipeline transport, and demand that act to equilibrate natural gas markets. A new short-term (36 month) forecast is calibrated with near-term information on a monthly basis. A new long-term forecast to 2025 is created quarterly. GMM solves for monthly natural gas production and demand, storage injections and withdrawals, pipeline flows, and natural gas prices in more than 110 regional market locations throughout North America. Weather, alternative fuel prices, pipeline capacity, and economic activity are just some of the key drivers of the model that can be changed for scenario analysis. It is ideal for studying supply and demand dynamics that drive the entire North American market, and also ideal for studying regional developments given the broader trends driving the entire market. The GMM software and supporting data has been licensed and is available for licensing by contacting ICF Resources, LLC.
Energy Asset Decision Support System (EADSS™)
EADSS is a flexible network-based model that can
represent multiple asset types (e.g., gas and power together)
along with detailed market and operational rules in a
stochastic modeling framework that considers uncertainties
in its optimization process. The model contains simulation
and optimization modules in an integrated framework.
Market Clearing Engine (MCE)—Gas Pipeline and Market
Model
The Market Clearing Engine (MCE) is a software system
developed by ICF International that determines the daily operational
and pricing schedules for the Victorian natural gas market
in Australia. The model combines non-linear pressure/flow
equations, equations relating compressor performance to power use, inlet and
outlet pressure, pressure regulation and check valves, and bids for gas deliveries
and receipts within an optimization framework to determine optimal hourly receipts
and deliveries of gas based on the bids and physical constraints within the
system. MCE results are calibrated closely to the outputs
of a transient flow model and against actual pressures and
flows in the pipeline system.
Licensed Tools
ICF International is a licensed user of both GE-MAPS™ and
the PowerWorld™ transmission simulator. We use these
models in either stand-alone mode to analyze transmission
network issues or in combination with IPM to provide a truly
integrated analysis of wholesale power market issues.
MAPS™
MAPS software uniquely models transmission topology and
the distribution of loads to help you accurately predict
the dispatch of generation assets throughout the system.
MAPS' strength is the handling of near-term production
simulation, especially when uncertain variables like firm
capacity additions are known and there is little likelihood
of unplanned capacity additions or retirements. MAPS provides
locational marginal pricing (LMP) output as well as transmission
modeling.
PowerWorld®
The PowerWorld Simulator is an interactive package for serious
engineering analysis of power systems. In addition to
optimal AC and DC power flows, it provides detailed modeling
of LTC and phase-shifting transformers, switched shunts,
generator reactive capability curves, generator cost curves,
load schedules, transaction schedules, DC lines, multi-section
lines, and remote bus voltage control. Simulator's inclusion
of economic data into the power flow solution enables
you to assess not only the technical aspects of a system
change such as a redispatch, but its economic importance
as well.
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