The forecasts are used to support renewable power procurement strategy, PPA negotiation, M&A due diligence, and policy impact analysis, among other client objectives. In all cases the forecasts are developed in conjunction with rigorous analysis of key policy, technology, and resource drivers. Qualitative analyses are presented alongside the forecasts.The study projects compliance REC-equivalent spot and long-term levelized PPA prices for the following integrated regional renewable power markets:

2007 through 2012

• New England
• New York
• PJM
• Upper Midwest (MISO)
• Texas
• WECC California
• WECC Other

2013 through 2030

• Northeast (PJM~New England single market)
• Upper Midwest (MISO)
• Texas
• WECC (California/other single market)

REC prices are based on the premium over energy market prices demanded by the least-cost marginal supply unit required to meet specified annual cumulative regional RPS demand (aggregated from the state level).

The renewable technologies addressed in the forecast include:

• Wind (onshore)
• Landfill gas
• Geothermal
• Biomass
• Solar

In addition to the fuel, emissions, and conventional power market assumptions, ICF takes the following key aspects into account when forecasting renewable power markets:

Demand

Compliance demand—RPS by state (27 states and D.C.)

• Detailed build-up of demand from the LSE level to aggregate state and regional
• Eligible technologies for Class or Tier 1
• Solar and EE carve-outs
• Expansion in resource sharing rules from in-state only to broader regional trading markets (sometimes via RECs)

Voluntary demand—national demand for VRECs/VERs

• Wholesale
• Retail by region

Supply

• Detailed database of all existing and firmly planned utility-scale renewable generators
• Technical resource assessments of developable MW by technology by region
  • Wind by class (energy potential) and distance to transmission (cost adder)
    • Technical Turbine manufacturing limits
    • Peak demand share penetration limits (20%)
    • Transmission interconnection queue limits
• Geothermal greenfield vs. brownfield expansion
• Landfill gas cumulative and incremental annual development limits
• Solar thermal and photovoltaic resources
• Biomass
  • Agricultural byproducts, energy crops, black liquor, municipal solid waste
• Cost and performance projections by technology
  • Achievable capacity factors by wind class
  • Ridgeline vs. plains wind farm development costs
  • Cost of transmission upgrades in interior WECC required to supply coastal markets
• Supply-side policy support
  • PTC eligibility by technology
  • PTC renewal assumptions

Mr. Fulton manages the renewable power markets portfolio in ICF’s commercial practice. Through the use of innovative analytic techniques, he provides robust views of current and projected markets to utilities, developers, and the financial community. Mr. Fulton’s expertise covers primary policy drivers like renewable portfolio standards and emissions regulations; trends affecting cost, performance, and deployment for different renewable generation technology types; and detailed knowledge of wholesale power market dynamics.

Recent highlights of his work include the managing the market due diligence support for EdP’s successful acquisition of Horizon Wind Energy, helping design a major mid-Atlantic utility’s request for green power, and supporting AWEA’s development of its position on important pending carbon legislation. Mr. Fulton also has extensive international power market experience, and has led engagements in Europe, Asia, and Latin America.

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