ICF International Identifies New Power and Fuels Opportunities Triggered By the Uncertainty in the EU Emissions Allowance Market
New Report Analyses European Power, Fuels, and Emissions Market Outlook Until 2020
May 11, 2006 -
Recent volatility in the price of European Union allowances (EUA) has led to tough questioning about the fundamental drivers of business opportunities in the European power and fuels markets. Today, at Carbon Expo 2006 in Cologne, Germany, ICF International announces the forthcoming launch of its new study entitled, European Power, Fuels, and Emissions Outlook 2006: An Analysis of Commercial Implications for Market Participants, which identifies several specific categories of market opportunities.
"The recent emissions market dynamics, resulting in declining power and share prices for European utilities, have emphasized the importance of market participants taking an integrated view of the analytics underpinning the power, fuels, transmission, and emissions markets," says Abyd Karmali, Managing Director of ICF's London office. "By using scenarios that take consistent views on fuels and emissions, we identify several value-creating opportunities for participants in the European power sector in a market environment characterized by even greater uncertainty about the price of EUA, a higher band for crude oil prices, and heightened concerns about energy security."
As with the 2005-2007 phase of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme, where we forecasted lower than the consensus estimates for prices of 05-07 vintage EUA, our updated forecast for 2008-2012 anticipates that the price for 08-12 vintage EUA will be significantly lower than the forward curve has suggested in recent months, but that carbon will still have material impacts for players in the electricity, gas, and coal markets.
"Three main threads are carried through our analysis," says Kim Keats, an ICF power and fuels expert in ICF's London office. “First, new plant decisions will be dominated by future CO2 allocation rules, and developments in CO2 and natural gas prices, resulting in significant financial opportunities for environmental retrofits at existing coal-fired power plants, particularly in Eastern Europe. Second, decisions to review the closure of existing nuclear plants and promote carbon capture and storage technology will require premium payments to reflect security of supply and CO2 concerns to be competitive. Third, we identify specific opportunities for investments in transmission capacity that will help optimise the European transmission network and promote integration of renewable power."
About ICF International
ICF International (Nasdaq: ICFI) partners with government and commercial clients to deliver consulting services and technology solutions in the energy, environment, transportation, social programs, defense, and homeland security markets. The firm combines passion for its work with industry expertise and innovative analytics to produce compelling results throughout the entire program life cycle, from analysis and design through implementation and improvement. Since 1969, ICF has been serving government at all levels, major corporations, and multilateral institutions. More than 1,800 employees serve these clients worldwide. ICF’s Web site is http://www.icfi.com.