ICF International Announces Integrated Energy Outlook
ICF Sees Rising Gas Prices and Significant Shift to Renewable Energy Sources, Gas, and Nuclear Capacity
Fairfax, Virginia, March 30, 2010 -
ICF International, a leading provider of consulting services and technology solutions to government and commercial clients, announces the completion of its quarterly Integrated Energy Outlook, which provides unique, comprehensive insights into an uncertain energy market future.
Because of unstable commodity prices, overall price volatility, and looming environmental regulations, uncertainty has become a constant in the energy industry. ICF International's Integrated Energy Outlook addresses the questions currently facing the industry, including:
- Will energy prices remain at historical lows, or will they rise to the off-the-charts levels seen before the recession?
- How will energy prices and regulations impact power markets?
- What will coal, renewables, and natural gas markets look like in 20 years?
- How much longer will the recession repress power market prices?
Using proprietary analytical tools developed by ICF International energy experts, the Integrated Energy Outlook integrates the areas of wholesale power, transmission, fuel, and emissions markets in order to offer the most complete industry picture available. The only study of its kind, the Integrated Energy Outlook provides big-picture guidance and market-specific projections and forecasts.
"The unprecedented energy price volatility of the past two years, coupled with ongoing climate regulatory uncertainty, has undermined executive confidence in the traditional views of energy markets," said John Blaney, senior vice president for ICF International. "ICF International's Integrated Energy Outlook provides decision makers with the strong analytical narrative needed to make sense of today's fragmenting energy landscape."
Some of the conclusions contained in the Integrated Energy Outlook include:
- Robust growth in gas demand is expected over the forecast period, which will apply upward pressure to gas prices over time. However, gas prices are unlikely to return to recent high levels over the forecast period.
- A significant shift to renewable energy sources, gas, and nuclear capacity will be driven by expected carbon legislation, which will dramatically affect bottom-line generation costs.
- Coal pricing and production are expected to decline over the next 20 years, but that largely depends on carbon policies and legislation.
- Projected on-peak spark spreads do not support near-term new combined cycle investment.
The Integrated Energy Outlook, now available from ICF International, includes five chapters containing projections in areas of Emissions, Gas, Coal, Renewable Energy, and Power markets.
The Emissions chapter looks at allowance prices for federal cap-and-trade programs for carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide; national pollution control installations, including carbon capture and storage deployment; carbon dioxide emissions abatement by sector; and domestic and international emission offset demand. The expected case for emissions includes a national cap and trade program for greenhouse gas emissions similar to the Waxman-Markey bill, which goes into effect in 2015. The expected case also includes national and regional programs for sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides emissions within the electricity sector as well as for mercury control requirements.
The Gas analysis examines regional gas production and consumption, gas prices and basis differentials, import and export measures, and pipeline utilization. The Coal chapter includes projections for mine-mouth prices for common U.S. marker coals and international coals, delivered prices to major power hubs, coal production by region, imports and exports, multi-sector coal consumption, and coal distribution.
The Renewable Energy chapter focuses on renewable energy credit (REC) prices for California, aggregate REC prices for the Pennsylvania/New Jersey/Maryland and New England areas, renewable generating capacity additions, and renewable energy supply and demand forecasts. The Power chapter looks at peak power prices for six major trading hubs and examines when on-peak energy prices will recover and reach 2008 highs.
ICF International has provided subscription-based reports on the energy and environmental markets for more than 25 years. For the first time, ICF International is offering its assessment on a quarterly basis in order to provide subscribers with timely analysis of the evolving and volatile energy and environmental markets.
About ICF International
ICF International partners with government and commercial clients to deliver professional services and technology solutions in the energy and climate change; environment and infrastructure; health, human services, and social programs; and homeland security and defense markets. The firm combines passion for its work with industry expertise and innovative analytics to produce compelling results throughout the entire program life cycle, from research and analysis through implementation and improvement. Since 1969, ICF has been serving government at all levels, major corporations, and multilateral institutions. More than 3,500 employees serve these clients worldwide. ICF's Web site is http://www.icfi.com.
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