ICF International Integrated Energy Outlook Projects U.S. Coal Production to Recover to Recent Historic Levels by 2014
Wind Capacity to Account for Three-Fourths of All New Renewable Energy Additions by 2030
Fairfax, Virginia, October 4, 2010 -
ICF International (NASDAQ:ICFI), a leading provider of consulting services and technology solutions to government and commercial clients, announces the completion of its third quarter Integrated Energy Outlook, which provides unique, comprehensive insights into an uncertain energy market future.
Among the Outlook's projections:
- The power sector will add 340 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity by 2030 to meet growing demand and to replace nearly 75 GW of coal-fired capacity that retires in response to air, waste, and water regulations.
- U.S. coal production will recover to recent historic levels by 2014 as electricity demand increases, exports increase, and gas prices rise above the point where fuel switching to gas is economically viable.
- Projected Henry Hub gas prices average $5-$7 per million British thermal units through 2030. Prices will be high enough to support the robust supply development projected over time, but not so high as to adversely influence market growth.
- Some power price recovery occurs in 2010 because of rising natural gas prices and demand growth, but on-peak energy prices will take many years to reach 2008 highs.
- New wind capacity accounts for three-fourths of all new renewable energy additions by 2030. The remainder is divided among biomass, solar, geothermal, and landfill capacity.
The Integrated Energy Outlook includes five chapters titled Emissions, Gas, Coal, Renewable Energy, and Power. Each chapter addresses key energy issues. Some of the issues addressed in the Outlook include how future CO2 regulation, combined with coming regulations for hazardous air pollutants, ash handling, and water intake, will impact coal unit operation decisions; what is happening to gas demand today and how that will shape the market in the future; how an increase in attention to safety issues following the Upper Big Branch mine disaster and new permitting guidelines for mountain top removal affected mining costs in Central Appalachia; how states will meet renewable energy requirements under current state Renewable Portfolio Standards as well as under a federal standard; and how much longer the recession will keep power prices down.
The Outlook represents the unified perspective of ICF's leading environmental, fuel, power, and transmission experts on recent trends and expected middle- and long-term market developments. Using a suite of proprietary analytical tools, ICF has worked to integrate the areas of wholesale power, transmission, fuel, renewable energy, and emissions markets in order to offer the most complete industry picture available. By incorporating variables from all areas of the industry, the Outlook is able to provide big-picture guidance, as well as market-specific projections and forecasts.
For more information, visit www.icfi.com/energyoutlook.
About ICF International
ICF International (NASDAQ:ICFI) partners with government and commercial clients to deliver professional services and technology solutions in the energy and climate change; environment and infrastructure; health, human services, and social programs; and homeland security and defense markets. The firm combines passion for its work with industry expertise and innovative analytics to produce compelling results throughout the entire program life cycle, from research and analysis through implementation and improvement. Since 1969, ICF has been serving government at all levels, major corporations, and multilateral institutions. More than 3,500 employees serve these clients worldwide. ICF's Web site is http://www.icfi.com/.
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