The ICF International Integrated Energy Outlook Projects Nearly One-Fifth of U.S. Coal Fleet to Retire Over the Next 10 Years in Response to New Regulations
Retirements and Rising Electric Demand Will Require Substantial Investment in New Capacity
Fairfax, Virginia, January 6, 2011 -
ICF International (NASDAQ:ICFI), a leading provider of consulting services and technology solutions to government and commercial clients, has released its Integrated Energy Outlook for the fourth quarter 2010. This quarter, the Outlook provides updated insights into how new regulations being developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will impact U.S. energy markets over the next 20 years. The Outlook projects that nearly one-fifth of the U.S. coal fleet could retire in response to new air, waste, and water regulations over the next 10 years.
The Outlook includes an in-depth integrated assessment of five interrelated energy markets: emissions, gas, coal, renewable energy, and power. The projections are based on ICF's current views on expected Maximum Available Control Technology (MACT) standards for hazardous air pollutants, implementation of the Clean Air Transport Rule, and assumed requirements for water intake and coal combustion waste management.
Among the Outlook's other findings:
- Exports will play an increasingly important role in U.S. coal markets, but Central Appalachian coal production will decline because of increased safety and regulatory scrutiny; Northern Appalachian and Illinois Basin coal production will increase as exports continue to expand and more coal plants are retrofitted with scrubbers.
- Shale gas production is a game-changer for the North American natural gas market, reducing costs and increasing the rate of growth in gas supplies.
- Natural gas price volatility will likely persist over the next several years as gas supply and demand struggle to find a new balancing point.
- Rising renewables mandates in PJM, California, and New England along with the loss of key federal incentives should boost renewable energy credit prices through the end of the decade.
- The limited cap and trade program for sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOX) envisioned in EPA's proposed Transport Rule will require costly compliance measures in some states but little change in others.
The Quarterly Outlook series offers unique insights into trends and developments likely to dominate energy markets for the next two decades. The Outlook represents the unified perspective of ICF's leading environmental, fuel, power, renewable energy, and transmission experts. Using a suite of proprietary analytical tools, ICF offers the most complete industry picture available.
For more information, visit www.icfi.com/energyoutlook.
About ICF International
ICF International (NASDAQ:ICFI) partners with government and commercial clients to deliver professional services and technology solutions in the energy and climate change; environment and infrastructure; health, human services, and social programs; and homeland security and defense markets. The firm combines passion for its work with industry expertise and innovative analytics to produce compelling results throughout the entire program life cycle, from research and analysis through implementation and improvement. Since 1969, ICF has been serving government at all levels, major corporations, and multilateral institutions. More than 3,500 employees serve these clients worldwide. ICF's Web site is http://www.icfi.com.
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