ICF International Integrated Energy Outlook Sees Possibility of More Than 50 GW of Coal Plant Retirements
Proposed EPA Rules Could Lead to Coal Plants Going Offline
Fairfax, Virginia, May 9, 2011 -
ICF International (NASDAQ:ICFI), a leading provider of consulting services and technology solutions to government and commercial clients, has released its Integrated Energy Outlook for the first quarter 2011. The study highlights the near-term impacts of global economic recovery on U.S. energy markets and examines the implications of lower CO2 prices on the long-term energy outlook.
The Energy Outlook notes that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has released proposals for the Clean Air Transport Rule (CATR), the Air Toxics Rule, coal combustion residuals, and cooling water intake structure standards. The combined environmental regulations could lead to more than 50 GW of coal plant retirements in the next 10 years.
Additionally, the study finds that U.S. coal exports could double by 2018, unless they are constrained by limited export capacity. The study also finds that rising renewable mandates in PJM and New England along with the loss of key federal incentives should boost renewable energy credit (REC) prices through the end of the decade.
ICF’s Integrated Energy Outlook addresses a number of significant issues, including:
- How the new EPA proposed rules might impact the industry.
- How natural gas prices will respond in the face of increased shale gas production.
- Whether on-peak energy prices continue to recover and return to 2008 levels in the near future.
- How rising renewable requirements will affect REC prices in regions throughout the U.S.
Using a suite of proprietary analytical tools, ICF has worked to integrate the areas of wholesale power, transmission, fuel, and emissions markets in order to offer the most complete picture of the energy industry. By incorporating variables from all areas of the industry, the Outlook is able to provide market-specific projections and forecasts.
The Outlook offers insight into the key areas of emissions, gas, coal, renewable energy, and power:
- What the implications will be of CATR on SO2 and NOx markets.
- How many coal units will retire and how many will spend the capital needed to comply with Hazardous Air Pollutants maximum achievable control technology (MACT) requirements.
- New capacity needed to replace retired capacity and meet growing demand.
- How the MACT requirements will interact with pending ash and water regulations.
- The possible directions for CO2 regulation and how that will impact control/retire decisions.
- How current trends in demand will shape the market.
- How basis differentials are developing given recent regional supply development and pipeline projects.
- How production from shale formations will change the future of the gas market and how environmental concerns might change this.
- Whether eastern coal prices continue to increase.
- Whether coal exports continue to expand, transforming the U.S. into a major player in global coal markets.
- How environmental regulations will shift production and consumption trends.
- How activity in California’s new tradable renewable energy credit market will affect prices for bundled RECs in the state.
- How REC prices in PJM will respond to sharp increases in renewable energy demand over the next decade.
- Whether offshore wind will provide meaningful contributions towards meeting the New England renewable portfolio standard.
- Whether the 2010 energy price recovery will be sustained.
- The regional outlook for on-peak spark spreads.
- How much environmental policies affect regional price differences.
Additional projections include:
- Emissions—Allowance prices for federal cap and trade programs (CO2, NOx, and SO2); national pollution control installations, including carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) deployment; CO2 emissions abatement by sector; domestic and international emission offset demand.
- Gas—Regional gas production and consumption, liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, delivered prices, basis differentials and pipeline capacity and flows.
- Coal—Minemouth prices for nine common U.S. marker coals and three international coals, delivered prices to major power hubs, coal production by region, imports and exports, multi-sector coal consumption, coal distribution.
- Renewable Energy—REC prices for California, aggregate REC prices for PJM and NEPOOL, renewable generating capacity additions, renewable energy supply and demand forecasts.
- Power—Peak power prices for five major trading hubs.
For more information, visit http://www.icfi.com/energyoutlook.
About ICF International
ICF International (NASDAQ:ICFI) partners with government and commercial clients to deliver professional services and technology solutions in the energy, environment, and transportation; health, education, and social programs; and homeland security and defense markets. The firm combines passion for its work with industry expertise and innovative analytics to produce compelling results throughout the entire program lifecycle, from research and analysis through implementation and improvement. Since 1969, ICF has been serving government at all levels, major corporations, and multilateral institutions. More than 3,700 employees serve these clients worldwide. ICF's website is http://www.icfi.com.
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