ICF Consulting Estimates 350 Million Tonnes of Carbon Credits Unlocked by Ratification of Kyoto Protocol by Russia
Joint Implementation Predicted to Have Significant Economic and Environmental Impact
October 20, 2004 -
On 30 September 2004, the Russian Cabinet submitted the Kyoto Protocol to the Russian Parliament (Duma) for ratification. The expectation is that Russia will officially ratify the Protocol in advance of the COP-10 meeting in Buenos Aires, Argentina, in early December 2004. After Russia’s ratification, the Protocol will enter into force. For seven years the Protocol has failed to secure 55 percent participation from developed countries; therefore, with the U.S. decision not to ratify, the minimum participation level could only be reached with Russian ratification.
"Our analysis finds that Russia’s decision to join the efforts of the international community to mitigate global warming and limit associated adverse impacts will unleash substantial economic benefits," says Dr. Alexei Sankovski, an ICF Consulting manager who leads the firm’s climate change services in Russia. ICF Consulting’s assessment of market dynamics in Russia’s oil and gas, coal mining, power generation, and metallurgy sectors indicates that investments will lead to substantial reductions of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. "We estimate there will be 350 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) credits per year within these and other energy- and carbon-intensive sectors in Russia―potentially worth billions of dollars," says Dr. Sankovski.
"In order to attract international investments in greenhouse gas abatement projects, Russia needs to establish a Kyoto-compatible national GHG inventory system; GHG registry; and nationwide infrastructure to stimulate, approve, and support joint implementation and ‘green investment’ projects," says Dr. Olga Varlamova, Director of ICF Consulting’s Moscow Office.
ICF Consulting’s staff and a team of in-country experts are assisting Ukraine and Belarus with a three-year project to develop capacity requirements implementation of the Protocol to maximize economic opportunities. "Our early experience from this innovative project suggests that Russia will benefit both economically and environmentally from playing an active role in the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol," says Dr. Varlamova.
About ICF International
ICF International (Nasdaq: ICFI) partners with government and commercial clients to deliver consulting services and technology solutions in the energy, environment, transportation, social programs, defense, and homeland security markets. The firm combines passion for its work with industry expertise and innovative analytics to produce compelling results throughout the entire program life cycle, from analysis and design through implementation and improvement. Since 1969, ICF has been serving government at all levels, major corporations, and multilateral institutions. More than 1,800 employees serve these clients worldwide. ICF’s Web site is http://www.icfi.com.