Demand for Voluntary Carbon Offsets Expected
to Reach 400 Mt/CO2e Per Year by 2010
LONDON, UK, 30 November 2006 – Today ICF International (Nasdaq:ICFI) launched a detailed report entitled Voluntary Carbon Offsets Market Outlook. Although the voluntary carbon offsets market has steadily grown in recent years—as measured by the number of transactions and market value—it is still quite small compared to the market for project offsets that companies can use for compliance purposes under the Kyoto Protocol. The World Bank estimates that in 2005 the market for voluntary carbon offsets made up less than 10 million tonnes (Mt) of CO2e, or less than 1 percent of global carbon market transactions and less than 1 percent of the total market value of US$11 million.
The International Emissions Trading Association
and World Bank estimate that the market for carbon
credits has increased to US$ 2.3 billion in the
first nine months of 2006 and that the overall
carbon market is now worth more than US$21.5 billion.
The market is experiencing significant growth as
companies not subject to caps on carbon emissions
decide voluntarily to offset some or all of their
emissions from a variety of sources directly or
indirectly related to their business activities.
A variety of obstacles could, however, impede the
market’s future growth.
"To continue its recent
explosive growth, the voluntary carbon market must
decisively address the significant persistent challenges
of credibility, fragmentation, and overlap with the
mandatory carbon emissions market," said Eric Lounsbury,
carbon market analyst in ICF’s
London Office. “The emerging standards
for project development and verification are a
positive sign that the voluntary market is ready
to take the next step in its maturation and development.
The market will, however, need to adapt to meet
increased stakeholder expectations on environmental
integrity and to maintain its niche alongside the
market for Kyoto-compliant carbon credits.”
"Our
analysis examines several scenarios for the evolution
of the market for voluntary carbon offsets, and our
base case forecasts global demand of around 400 Mt
of CO2e per year by 2010," said Abyd Karmali, managing
director for ICF’s
European operations. “Market drivers among
the different categories of buyers are diverse
and include reputation, experience, and principle.
Some companies not subject to caps are low emitters
and face inherently high costs of reducing
emissions, but nevertheless wish to build a
reputation for environmental stewardship and are
choosing offsetting as one of the components in
their climate
strategy. Others recognize that participating
in voluntary carbon markets is excellent preparation
for future life under a mandatory cap-and-trade
scheme. Some companies that have begun to use offsets
are doing so based on the principle that it is
a means of sharing the responsibility for managing
emissions between producers and consumers. We see
rapid growth in each segment.”
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ICF International (Nasdaq: ICFI) partners with government and commercial clients to deliver consulting services and technology solutions in the energy, environment, transportation, social programs, defense, and homeland security markets. The firm combines passion for its work with industry expertise and innovative analytics to produce compelling results throughout the entire program life cycle, from analysis and design through implementation and improvement. Since 1969, ICF has been serving government at all levels, major corporations, and multilateral institutions. More than 1,800 employees serve these clients worldwide. ICF’s Web site is http://www.icfi.com.
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For Immediate Release
United Kingdom Contact: Abyd
Karmali
Tel: 44 (0) 20.7092.3005
United States Contact: Douglas
Beck
Tel: 1.703.934.3820
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