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These articles represent a selection of our perspectives
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PUBLICATIONS |
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2009 Articles
2008 Articles
2007 Articles
2006 Articles
2005 Articles
2004 Articles
2003 Articles
2002 Articles
2001 Articles
2000 Articles
1999 Articles
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2009 Articles
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HOME PAGE FEATURE |
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European Power and Carbon Markets Outlook 2009-2030
ICF International's European Power and Carbon Markets Outlook 2009-2030 provides market and policy analyses along with price projections for European wholesale power and carbon allowances. Two individual chapters, focusing on the power sector and the Emission Trading Scheme, address the impacts of the current economic downturn and the ambitious long-term renewable and climate change targets recently approved by the European Union. Companies can customize their study by purchasing an individual chapter or the entire integrated study. Subscribers receive electronic and paper copies of the report, a free on-site energy and carbon markets seminar, and a discounted-price valuation study of power sector assets.
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HOME PAGE FEATURE |
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U.S. Emission and Fuel Markets Outlook
ICF International's U.S. Emission and Fuel Market Outlook 2009 provides market analysis and price projections for all of the key emission and fuel market benchmarks, with individual chapters on GHG, SO2/NOx/mercury, gas and coal. All chapters address the impacts of climate policies on the relevant markets. Companies can customize their study by purchasing an individual chapter, multiple chapters, or the entire integrated study. Subscribers receive three bound copies of the report, access to ICF's team of professionals, and a discounted on-site energy market seminar.
Carbon Funds Outlook
Carbon funds have become an important player in the carbon markets over the past few years and have experienced considerable growth. However, the amount of capital secured or targeted by funds created over the last two years appears to be slowing down. Indeed, the lack of clarity on the post 2012 climate policy framework at international and domestic levels, increasing competition on the buyers’ side, and the decline in the number of large and low risk Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects create a challenging and uncertain environment for new entrants in the carbon finance community. This situation will likely be exacerbated by the credit crisis, which could reduce the amount of capital available to invest in carbon credit projects and increase the cost of capital available. But current financial difficulties can also create opportunities for some of the existing carbon funds that can benefit from a competitive advantage vis-à-vis other investors. This paper aims to address these issues through detailed analysis of the current market context and the historical evolution of carbon funds.
2008 Articles
Benefits to ERCOT Ratepayers from the Kelson Transmission Project
Prepared for Kelson Transmission Company, LLC, by ICF International, June 2008. ICF conducted an economic analysis of the Canal to Deweyville transmission project, which will serve greater Houston, Texas. The proposed transmission line will provide access to efficient generation capacity in eastern Texas. The project will improve the capacity reserve margin of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and provide up to $35 billion of total cost savings to rate payers over a 30-year period. In addition, it will reduce emissions through better utilization of clean and efficient power plants. ICF’s report was filed with the Public Utility Commission of Texas in June 2008. If approved, Kelson Transmission anticipates completion of the $300-million project by spring 2011.
Lighting Update: ENERGY STAR, Legislation, Trends, Incentives and Opportunities
Published in Today’s Lighting Distributor, the official magazine of the National Association of Independent Lighting Distributors, May/June 2008, by Jeffrey Schwartz of ICF International. Recent changes and trends in the lighting market provide new opportunities for independent lighting distributors. As market trends and legislation move purchasers away from inefficient technologies and towards energy-efficient products, distributors that have become ENERGY STAR Partners have an opportunity to increase sales and profits. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, for example, requires that all general purpose lighting in federal buildings be ENERGY STAR products, or products designated under the Energy Department’s Federal Energy Management Program, by the end of fiscal year 2013. The article also outlines the simplified criterion of the Advanced Lighting Package and the Database for Incentives and Joint Marketing Exchange (DIME) tool on the ENERGY STAR Web site.
GU-24 Goes Mainstream
Published in the March/April 2008 issue of Lightrays, a publication of the American Lighting Association, by Chris Primous of ICF International. GU24 lightbulbs (lamps) and sockets are used in many new ENERGY STAR qualified decorative residential light fixtures as the new standard in permanent high-efficiency bases. Using GU24 ensures that decorative light fixtures will always be high-efficiency and never regressed to a low-efficiency lightbulb. This article talks about the use of the GU24 design becoming increasingly popular as manufacturers of bulbs and fixtures start to make the transition to this new design.
Grid Reliability
By Jim Stanton of ICF International and published in the March 2008 issue of POWER magazine. The North American Electric Reliability Corporation
(NERC) Critical Infrastructure Protection Reliability Standards will be fully in the spotlight in 2008. These newly approved measures have the potential to impose substantial compliance associated costs on Responsible Entities under the standards, and also seek to mitigate what are perhaps the most significant risks to the nation's electric infrastructure.
The Broader Connection between Public Transportation, Energy Conservation and Greenhouse Gas Reduction
This February 2008 study was prepared by ICF International in conjunction with Dr. Pat Mokhtarian for the American Public Transportation Association (APTA), with funding from the Transit Cooperative Research Program (TCRP). Based on data from the National Household Travel Survey 2001, the study found a significant correlation between public transit availability and reduced automobile travel, independent of travel use. This secondary effect results in lower total vehicle miles traveled (VMT) even when people are not substituting automobile use with transit use. The presence of public transportation results in more efficient land use patterns in community development. This allows areas to support more travel with fewer roadways in less space and saves 4.2 billion gallons of gasoline, reduces CO2 emissions, and lowers overall energy consumption. A 2007 ICF study assessed the total number of VMT required to replace transit trips and the direct petroleum savings attributable to public transportation.
NERC/CIP Cyber Security: Leveraging Existing Controls to Secure the Enterprise
Published in the February 28, 2008, issue of Energy Central's EnergyPulse, by Kevin T. McDonald, Senior NERC Cyber Security Analyst at ICF International. The electric utility industry is facing the daunting task of compliance with the rigorous North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) critical infrastructure protection (CIP) physical and electronic security standards. Formulated to mitigate the threat of damage or disruption to the U.S. and Canadian Power Grid, these standards were formally adopted by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) in early 2008 and are now mandatory. This article demonstrates methods to reduce the impact of compliance by identifying and incorporating existing controls into the NERC CIP Framework.
Incorporating Energy Efficiency into Affordable Housing Projects
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) continues to prioritize development and rehabilitation projects that incorporate energy efficiency measures. This quarter’s featured resource is a guide developed by ICF for PJs to encourage efficiency in projects funded through the HOME Program. The guide contains general information about energy efficiency measures as well as programs local governments can use to encourage developers to incorporate these measures in the development process. It also offers specific information about energy savings and cost savings associated with efficiency measures in specific climate zones, including: CA Central Valley Climate Zone; CA Bay Area Climate Zone; Mountainous Climate Zone; and Desert Climate Zone.
Implications of Proposed Canadian Regulatory Framework for Decreasing GHG
ICF International has examined the implications of the Canadian Government’s proposed regulatory framework for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and has developed a tool that will enable companies to better predict the cost to comply. Under the Regulatory Framework for Air Emissions enacted in April 2007, companies are required to reduce their GHG emissions on an intensity basis by 18 percent from a 2006 baseline by 2010 and continue to make intensity improvements of 2 percent each year until 2015. With the government keen to see investment in carbon abatement stay in Canada, future carbon prices in the domestic market are of particular interest to companies with Canadian operations.
Voluntary
Carbon Offsets Market Outlook
The market for voluntary carbon offsets is small
but maturing rapidly. ICF International's new study analyzes
the market drivers, assesses the impediments affecting growth
in the market, and presents scenarios outlining how the market
may evolve to 2010. The study also examines the impact of
some of the emerging international standards and verification
protocols.
Implications of Cyber Security Standards for Electric Power Grid
ICF International examines the implications of the cyber security and critical infrastructure protection (CIP) standards set forth by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). The Commission has implemented eight mandatory security standards that apply to all bulk power system users, owners, and operators. Developed by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), these critical infrastructure protection standards attempt to protect the nation’s electric power grid from cyber attacks. Register to download this special report.
Selling the True Value of Lighting
Published in Lighting Design and Application (LD&A), January 2008, by Jeffrey Schwartz of ICF International. Whether proposing a new lighting design, or a lighting upgrade, at some point the client has to be sold on the cost effectiveness of the system. This article explains how to use financial terms and formulas to sell the economical and energy saving value of a lighting project.
Understanding Mercury in CFLs and Lamp Recycling
Published in the January 2008 issue of Lightrays, a publication of the American Lighting Association, by Chris Primous of ICF International. Widespread use of
compact fluorescent lamps
(CFL) in lighting fixtures can save a tremendous amount of our nation’s resources. CFLs use three-quarters less energy than standard incandescent lamps, and if every American replaced just one incandescent lamp with an ENERGY STAR qualified CFL, it would be roughly the equivalent to preventing greenhouse gas emissions of 800,000 cars. However, by design, all CFLs contain trace amounts of mercury, an environmental hazard that can pose health risks upon exposure. This article examines what consumers should understand about the hazard and what steps can be taken to ensure proper disposal and recycling.
2007 Articles
Gourmet Credits: Refining the Swiss Carbon Cheese
Published in Jahresbericht 2007 IWÖ-SHG, Institut für Wirtschaft und Ökologie, Universität St. Gallen, by ICF's Steffen Brunner. This commentary looks at the quality of corporate carbon offsetting programs in Switzerland. Offsetting can bear considerable reputational risk if not done properly, and credibility remains a major concern of the offsetting business and its clients. Credible standards that quantify and verify emission reductions are therefore essential. Bearing in mind the importance of standards, it is startling how little attention many Swiss credit buyers pay to this issue. In fact, only a few of the firms engaged in offsetting disclose information on the specific standards used. Credibility remains the key issue in this growing market, and the Swiss economy has a lot to lose if half-hearted carbon offsetting damages its reputation as a world leader in quality and trustworthiness.
Going Carbon Neutral—Measure, Reduce, Offset
Climate change has become a crucial issue that businesses and other organizations must address to stay competitive. ICF developed this overview outlining the necessary steps to become carbon neutral and how we help clients reduce their carbon footprints. It includes the basics of how to measure a carbon footprint, develop strategies to reduce the footprint, and purchase “offsets” for any remaining emissions. ICF also takes a look at how responsible and ethical engagement in combining these processes will help to ensure a sustainable future.
ICF International GHG Inventory for Global Operations
A robust greenhouse gas inventory—or carbon footprint—provides a baseline for any company to measure against for progress in reducing its climate impact. ICF has conducted a Greenhouse Gas (GHG) inventory for our 2006 global operations, following the guidelines set by the World Resource Institute (WRI)/World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) GHG Reporting Protocol, a globally
recognized methodology to conduct emission inventories.
The Practical Insight to Gas Pricing in India
Published in the Sep/Oct Issue of Hydrocarbon Asia by Sachin Nagdive and Hitendra Patel of ICF International. India’s thrust for gas is high, and the country is set to double domestic gas supply by mid-2008. As the larger portion of this is expected to be consumed by the key sectors and since government has recently approved the gas pricing formula for this new supply, the affordability of these sectors has become a contentious issue. This article presents some of the scenarios pertaining to the key sector affordability and potential revenue option. The article also highlights the key market issues, governmental policies, and wants of reform related to gas market development and infrastructure requirement.
Understanding High-Performance T8 Systems
Published in Lighting Design and Application (LD&A), August 2007, by Jeffrey Schwartz of ICF International. Once upon a time there were very few options when selecting 32-W T8 lamps. Selection was limited to either 700 series (CRI of 70-plus) or 800 series lamps (CRI of 80-plus). Today, a typical lamp catalog will list more than 30 choices for 4-ft 32-W T8 lamps alone. This article talks about the technology, features, and benefits of High Performance T8 Systems, with an emphasis on energy savings and improved lighting quality.
A Tough Puzzle—Parsing Out the Dramatic Challenges of Today’s Integrated Resource Planning
By Elliot Roseman and Basak Uluca of ICF International, and published in Edison Electric Institute's Electric Perspectives, July/August 2007. Utility Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) and long-term internal planning have been gaining momentum in recent years. IRPs were popular in the 1980s and '90s and fell into disuse in restructured states, as IRPs were generally thought not to be necessary in competitive markets. Today, IRP and longer-term internal utility planning are regaining popularity in both traditional and deregulated states. However, today’s IRPs are more complicated and sophisticated and must take into account a much wider spectrum of issues, including energy efficiency, renewables, transmission planning, regional resources, climate change, and risk. This article discusses the complexities and the differences of today’s IRPs from those in the past, and how utilities can best undertake such necessary planning.
Judging the Quality of a Lighting Project
Published in Today’s Lighting Distributor, July/August 2007, by Jeffrey Schwartz. There is more to lighting than just energy efficiency. The quality of the lighting project is equally important. This article explains energy efficiency and how to measure, evaluate, and communicate the project savings. Lighting quality issues such as uniformity, proper light levels, and glare control also are discussed.
Technology Drives Methane Emissions Down, Profits Up
Published in Oil & Gas Journal, August 13, 2007, by Brian Gillis of ICF International and consultants from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Heath Consultants, TransCanada, and Occidental Oil & Gas. Operators in all oil and gas industry sectors are finding that greenhouse gas emissions management is a new revenue source in the current market environment. This article reports on a range of projects applicable to a diverse set of sites worldwide that convert methane emissions from an environmental responsibility into a company resource. For each project example, the operator realized positive economic results on the project investment. Marginal abatement cost curves relate these individual projects to the remaining potential for such projects in selected countries.
Forecasting Phase-Two Prices—Looking for Reductions in All the Right Places
Published in Point Carbon’s Carbon Market Europe, July 2007, by Alexandre Marty and Etienne Gabel of ICF International. This article considers where the fundamental equilibriums between supply and demand for CO2 emission reductions will lie for the second phase of the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme, and what can be deduced for EU allocation (EUA) price forecasts over the period 2008-2012. Although views are often shared on the allowances shortfall and on the supply distribution of Kyoto-based credits, there are diverging assessments of the ability for domestic emission reductions, especially from the power sector. ICF analyzes the opportunities for such domestic emission reductions and derive EUA price forecasts using ICF International’s InCaP tool.
Ready for Your NERC Close-Up?
By Jim Stanton of ICF International and published in the June 2007 issue of POWER magazine. This article coincides with the date for mandatory compliance with the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Reliability Standards. It touches on the 2003 Blackout as well as the non-monetary, extrinsic risks of non-compliance. It also stresses that the Reliability Standards are not a fixed set but rather an ever evolving collection of standards and requirements that should be constantly monitored for changes.
Captive Power in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): The Development of Power Projects in the Middle East
By Kim Keats Martinez of ICF International and published in Commodities Now, June 2007. Power and water requirements in the Middle East are growing quickly. Unfortunately, the utilities' current tender model can make it more difficult for the region to diversify away from hydrocarbons. Unless there is an accepted legal and regulatory framework for selling excess power back to the grid, electricity procurement costs for industrial clients will be higher than they should otherwise be.
Where Have All the Mergers Gone?
By Elliot Roseman and Kimberly Richardson of ICF International, and published in Public Utilities Fortnightly, June 2007. This article investigates the influence of EPACT 2005, and specifically the repeal of the Public Utility Company Holding Act of 1935 (PUHCA) on merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in the U.S. electric utility industry. After a huge flurry of deals in the 1997 to 2002 period, M&A activity was much slower both before and since then. While some thought that previously restricted capital might flood the market once PUHCA was repealed, the article demonstrates that this has not been the case, and discusses the reasons for this lack of activity. These reasons include "bottom-line" financial issues, unclear exit strategies, insufficient hedging potential, and unfamiliar industry or company dynamics, among others. We expect this trend to continue, but also expect that there will continue to be a limited number of large "marquis" deals, small-and-medium size utility consolidations, and financial institution (e.g., equity fund) transactions, partly driven by the huge anticipated need for capital investment.
Cyber Security and the Grid
By Jim Stanton of ICF International and published in the May 2007 issue of POWER magazine. The article introduces the concept of cyber security as applied to the interconnected electric grid. The 2003 Blackout is cited as an example of the damage a widespread service interruption can do. Also discussed is the risk based assessment mandated by the NERC Critical Infrastructure Protection Standards.
Coal Potential: Identifying Emerging Opportunities
Written by Bishal Thapa and Ankur Bansal of ICF International's India office and published in Power Line, April 2007. The article outlines the robust coal demand and investment needs in the coal sector considering the current Indian economic growth. The article examines how coal sector fundamentals relate to the broader energy markets dynamics and influence regulatory changes. The authors unveil prices and the current opportunities in "captive coal" that may hold value even if the regulatory regime stretches further than anticipated.
Prospects for Energy Integration
Published in Himal Southasian, April 2007, by Bishal Thapa, Amit Sharma. and Rashika Gupta of ICF International. ICF International surveys the prospects of energy integration in South Asian countries. The authors argue that new economic realities are reshaping the possibilities for regional energy integration.
Energy Trends in Selected Manufacturing Sectors:
Opportunities and Challenges for Environmentally Preferable Energy Outcomes
April 2007. ICF International prepared this report for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Sector Strategies Program within the Office of Policy, Economics, and Innovation. The report on energy use trends in major manufacturing sectors highlights the environmental implications of energy use. The report analyzes 12 manufacturing sectors and illustrates how each sector could improve by becoming more energy efficient or by using clean fuel technologies.
Cyber Security Under the NERC Reliability Standards
By James R. Stanton of ICF International and published in IT Compliance Magazine, Spring 2007. The interconnected nature and electronic control systems of the nation’s high voltage electrical system renders it susceptible to coordinated cyber attacks. Critical infrastructure protection (CIP) requirements are key components in the newly enforceable set of NERC Reliability Standards. Perhaps more than any other set of standards, the CIP group holds the potential to deflect and address the most potentially devastating contingencies on the interconnected systems. Cyber security has a wider meaning in the context of large system disruptions and interrupted service to broad areas of users than the previous concerns about data and file server corruption.
Regional Resource Planning Makes Sense
By Elliot Roseman of ICF International and Sandra Hochstetter, Chair, Arkansas Public Service Commission, and published in EnergyPulse, February 1, 2007. This article identifies the growing trend in integrated resource planning (IRP) among regulated utilities, but goes one step future. With the advent of regional wholesale markets, large regional baseload and renewable generation resources, climate change and other emissions considerations, and regional transmission planning by regional transmission organizations (RTO), the authors argue that "Regional Resource Planning" (RRP) would be a substantial improvement in optimizing the resource mix. Importantly, RRP would not usurp state regulatory authority—rather, it would be sponsored by existing regional regulatory groups and organizations, and would provide regional resource and cost analysis that state regulators could use to better determine what makes sense for their states and the region as a whole. The authors enumerate the key elements of the RRP concept, as well as how to implement the process. Given the huge need for electric industry investment that the United States is facing nationwide over the next 10-20 years, the time has come for an alternative that would optimize investment, achieve synergies, maximize consumer benefit, and augment regional information sharing. The time has come for RRP.
Independent Assessment of Midwest ISO Operational Benefits
Prepared by ICF International, February 2007. The Midwest Independent System Operator (ISO) engaged ICF to estimate potential and actual economic benefits of its market operations for the period June 2005 through August 2006. On April 1, 2005, the Midwest ISO began operation of Midwest Markets—an hourly locational marginal price (LMP) energy market that includes centralized unit commitment and dispatch, a day-ahead energy market, a real-time energy market, and a financial transmission rights market. Detailed study results were released in February 2007, followed by an addendum in May 2007. The report reveals an upward trend in the percentage of potential benefits that were actually achieved, suggesting improvements in operation of the markets following market start-up. Findings indicate that a subset of benefits provided by a large RTO such as the Midwest ISO brought US$58 million in tangible financial benefits—or an annualized figure of almost $70 million—to market participants during a 10-month study period.
The Compliance Clock is Ticking
By Jim Stanton of ICF International and published in the February 2007 issue of POWER magazine. The article discusses the nature of sanctions and penalties assessed against violators of the NERC Reliability Standards. Also mentioned is the non-monetary sanctions that can be applied as well.
Mandatory Standards Advance
By Jim Stanton of ICF International and published in the January 2007 issue of POWERmagazine. Users of the Bulk Electric Power System in the United States and parts of Canada will soon be required to comply with enforceable reliability standards from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). These standards apply to generator owners and operators, transmission providers, load serving entities, and power marketers. Measures of compliance with these standards bring increased attention to the operational skills of the users of the system, along with financial penalties and public disclosure for violators.
Public Transportation and Petroleum Savings in the U.S.:
Reducing Dependence on Oil
January 2007. ICF International study analyzes the amount of petroleum saved by the use of public transportation systems in the United States. The analysis reveals that public transportation currently saves 1.4 billion gallons of gasoline annually. The study further examines actual savings in household budgets attributable to public transportation use and included factors that influence travel such as income, household size, neighborhood density, and the number of workers in the household. It concludes that public transportation use correlates with 16 fewer miles driven per day, per household. This amounts to an estimated $1,400 per year in annual fuel costs. Two-worker households in which one worker uses public transportation have the opportunity to save substantially more if they have only one car. These families can save an estimated $6,200 per year, accounting for both public transportation use and vehicle ownership.
Water Markets Perspective: Privatisation and Regulation of China’s Water Sector
China is currently the most active emerging market for public-private partnerships in the water sector. However, the government faces a familiar tension between ensuring sufficient capital investment to improve service quality and keeping tariffs for consumers affordable. In China, distinctive contract models and characteristics of the institutional environment pose particular challenges for establishing a sound regulatory regime. The existing system is complicated by the overlapping layers of rules issued by different government bodies and by limited transparency in processes for regulatory decision making. In this January 2007 Water Markets Perspective, Olivia Jensen of ICF International discusses how China can draw on regulatory theory and international experience to develop economic regulations for its water sector.
Water Markets—Regulation Matters (January 2007)
Regulation Matters is the regular digest of water markets news and views from the London office of ICF International. It provides coverage of topical issues in water markets and the latest ICF International insights and perspectives into regulatory developments.
2006 Articles
Trading Around the Caps
Published in Environmental Finance, November 2006, by Natalia Gorina and Alexandre Marty of ICF International. First appeared in a supplement to the November 2006 issues of Environmental Finance and Carbon Finance. This article describes the dynamics between the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) and Kyoto credits from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI). It highlights the interactions between demand for Kyoto credits from EU ETS participants, volume of credits actually available to be imported into the EU ETS, and caps set at Member State level on use of such credits. Beyond the apparent complexity of overall caps and the limitations they create, the article points out opportunities and ways for EU ETS participants reaching their "credit limit" to turn around the constraint by "swapping" credits for EU Allowances from less constrained entities. This option will likely trigger significant market activity and provide incentives for market intermediaries to design creative—and rewarding—compliance solutions for EU ETS participants.
Recent Blackouts Support the Need for Increased European Coordination
ICF International reviews the causes and effects of the Norwegian Pearl incident on November 4, 2006, that resulted in a blackout that cascaded across European borders. If the consequences of a small disruption in one jurisdiction can travel the length and breadth of Europe, at issue is whether Europe should establish a single supervisory authority for the entire European grid. ICF International recommends consideration of the costs and benefits of a Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) covering the whole of Europe. A carefully-designed RTO is one potential solution to blackouts and other significant problems plaguing the European electric sector.
Using
Water Markets to Mitigate Drought Impacts: Learning from
Australian Farmers in the Murray Darling Basin
Despite clear hardships that the irrigation community faces, the ability and
willingness to trade the limited water supplies available means irrigators
are better able than ever to cope with drought-related challenges. Essentially,
the real value of water trade for the economy is to provide the flexibility
to allow the production of water-based produce to contract in response to drought
in an economically efficient manner. In the October 2006 Water Markets
Perspective, James Bentley of ICF International discusses how to use current
water markets to mitigate drought impacts, using Australia’s Murray Darling
Basin as a prime example.
The Indian Coal Sector: A Tale of Promise and Problem
Written by Bishal Thapa and Sandeep Kumar of ICF International's India office and published in World Coal, September 2006. ICF surveys the Indian coal sector in the midst of India's economic growth and in the context of Indian’s growing energy demand. The potential and current limitations, particularly around the slow pace of reforms, are discussed. The authors argue that coal in India remains the dominant energy source, but the slow pace of reforms is hurting India’s ability to develop alternate energy strategies.
EPACT:
Show Me the Money!
Published in Project Finance
International, August 2006, by Elliot Roseman of ICF International.
The article evaluates the accomplishments, as well as the shortfalls, of the
2005 U.S. Energy Policy Act one year after its passage. Hailed by some to be
a long-awaited energy panacea, EPACT is packed with direct grants, loan guarantees,
and other incentives. The article compares the authorized funds with the actual
program appropriations for fiscal year 2007.
Fly
Ash Use and Greenhouse Gas Benefits
Published in Coal
People Magazine, August 2006, by Victoria Thompson of ICF International,
and Henry Ferland and John Sager of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This
article examines the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction benefits of using fly ash,
a byproduct of coal combustion, as a replacement for Portland cement in concrete
production. In particular, it looks at recent innovative U.S. commodity contracts,
which discuss the possible future allocation of carbon credits associated with
the fly ash being sold. Although no carbon price is currently associated with
fly ash use, the contracts recognize that this may become the case in the future
and want to settle the issue of ownership of credits.
California's
Greenhouse Gas Legislation:
California Global Warming
Solutions Act of 2006
Within the United States, California has repeatedly been at the vanguard of
environmental and energy programs. With the recent passage of the "Global
Warming Solutions Act of 2006," many expect that the state will once again
lead the way for the United States by designing and experimenting with a comprehensive
program to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this white paper, Michael
Gibbs of ICF International's Los Angeles
office summarizes the act's provisions and comments on some of its implications.
High Density Housing, Mega-Developments: An Assessment of Arizona and Nevada Comparing Central Power to a Distributed Energy Approach
With the populations of Arizona and Nevada projected to more than double from 2000-2035-triple the national growth rate-large "megadevelopment" projects are being considered to meet the demand for housing. Current standard approaches to utility and regional planning may be inadequate to deal with infrastructure changes and the impact on energy supplies, water resources, and the environment. This July 2006 study, prepared for Oak Ridge National Laboratory by EEA, an ICF International Company, analyzes the expected energy and infrastructure requirements and considers distributed energy resource (DER) strategies as a solution, including gas-powered heat pump (GHP) and combined heat and power (CHP), to meet needs for base-load electricity and heating more efficiently and with lower capital cost and water consumption than would be required with conventional central power stations.
The
Kyoto Protocol and Its Market Mechanisms: Evaluating
Their Contribution to Cleaner Energy
Published in the AccountAbility
Forum, "Energy & Accountability" (No. 9, 2006), June
2006, Greenleaf
Publishing. AccountAbility is an international organization that works
to promote accountability for sustainable development. This article by Abyd
Karmali of ICF International explores how well the Kyoto Protocol's market
mechanisms have succeeded in stimulating greenhouse gas emission reductions
in developing countries through carbon credits and whether the price signal
provided by the rapidly maturing carbon market is strong enough to encourage
rapid evolution toward lower carbon technologies in the global energy sector.
Rebuilding
After the Gulf Coast Hurricane: Sustainable Communities
Using Energy Efficiency
In 2005, a Category 4 hurricane made landfall near Buras, Louisiana, bringing
145 mph winds, inundating New Orleans, and leaving a path of destruction the
size of the United Kingdom. Within hours, a city dubbed "the Big Easy" was
awash in tragedy. As a result, more than 300,000 new single family homes will
need to be built in Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi in the coming months.
Six of those homes are being piloted in Pass Christian, Mississippi. This paper
analyzes the incremental costs and payback periods to upgrade these new homes
to be energy efficient.
Challenges
to Investing in Water
Evidence has shown that private sector involvement is not necessarily the key
to unlocking barriers to efficiency and profitability in the water sector. Water
investments face their own challenges due to the very nature of the product,
which can impact the financial success or failure of the investment. In this
July 2006 Water Markets Perspective, Ceema Namazie of ICF
International discusses the challenges faced by investors in the water sector,
and how these factors affect the overall commercial viability of these opportunities—whatever
the type of investor.
Paths
to Power: The U.S. Electricity Grid
July 28, 2006 - ICF International's Judah Rose, senior vice president and electric
transmission expert, was interviewed on Living on Earth,
a weekly environmental news and information program distributed by National Public
Radio (NPR). Rose discussed the U.S. power grid—the largest power grid
in the world—and how growth, deregulation, and under-investment in the
grid are leading to unreliability and power outages across the country as demand
for electricity exceeds the limits of the current system.
Interview with ICF International Energy Expert Regarding
Power Crisis in New York, St. Louis, and California
July 25, 2006 - Watch the MSNBC The
Most with Alison Stewart television interview with Judah Rose, senior vice president
and electric
transmission expert, regarding the causes of
disruptions in the power grid brought on by extreme summer
weather conditions. ICF International says that timely investments
to upgrade aging power plants and transmission lines are
necessary to mitigate against continued power outages and
the threat of terror attacks. Note:
To launch the interview, you will need the latest version
of Windows Media Player.
Cooling
Down Hot Air
Published in Environmental
Finance, May 2006, by Natalia Gorina of ICF International. This article
considers how Russia and Ukraine could monetize their massive surpluses of
Kyoto Protocol Assigned Amount Units (AAU). Surplus AAUs are quantified and
their impact on the price of carbon is evaluated using ICF
International's InCaP tool. Then, the benefits and current barriers for
implementation of Green Investment Schemes in Russia and Ukraine are analyzed,
as well as the option of converting some surplus AAUs into Joint Implementation
Track 1 Emission Reduction Units.
Drought
Floods
Water Market with Opportunity
Opportunity is not a word many of the 13 million
water customers facing water restrictions would associate
with England’s worst drought in 100 years. However,
the current drought highlights more than ever the true value
of this essential resource and the need for new thinking
on how water can be used and managed more wisely. In this
May 2006 Water Markets Perspective,
Scott Reid of ICF International identifies four practical
market-oriented opportunities for encouraging water smart
decision-making.
Economic
Valuation and Public Goods
Water utilities operate for the public good, supplying essential services and
protecting public health and our environment. In the context of England and
Wales, the delivery of this public good has been in the hands of privately
owned businesses, and regulators increasingly see tools like cost-benefit analysis
as a way to align the interests of private sector businesses with the delivery
of this public good. Recent work in the area of economic valuation also is
suggesting that these public good characteristics may matter when it comes
to measuring the economic value of improving the provision of water services.
In this new Water Markets Perspective, Scott Reid of ICF International explores
the practical relevance of this recent work to the increasing use of cost benefit
analysis to guide investment planning by water utilities. In particular, he
investigates whether it is appropriate to ask what customers are willing to
pay for service improvements or instead, what customers are prepared to accept
by way of compensation for foregoing a service improvement.
Tax
Deductions for Lighting Upgrades: The Energy Policy Act
of 2005
Published in Today's Lighting Distributor, the official magazine of
the National Association of Independent Lighting Distributors, March/April
2006, by Jeffrey Schwartz of ICF International. This article explains the tax
deductions for energy-efficient lighting contained in the 2005
Energy Policy Act (EPAct). The article includes information on specific
EPAct criteria and how the tax deductions can be used to help offset initial
costs and motivate end-users to make lighting upgrades to their facilities.
Everything is Illuminated
Published in Natural Home and Garden, January/February 2006, by Paul
Vrabel of ICF International, this article presents today's options for energy efficient
lighting in the home. The article includes information on stylistic energy saving
fixtures that are readily available in the market and the future of energy efficient
lighting. Specifically, the article presents an overview of ENERGY STAR qualified
fixtures that will save energy and meet consumers' performance and aesthetic
needs. The article also presents that facts about the use of Light Emitting Diodes
(LED) for the home, and where this technology is going to improve our world.
2005 Articles
Role of Distributed Generation in Power Quality and Reliability
The December 2005 report by EEA, an ICF International Company, explores the power quality sensitivity of the power market in New York and examines the value of integrating distributed generation into an overall customer power quality and reliability solution. The basic premise for this study is that distributed generation can be used to support customer's power quality and reliability needs and, by so doing, the value of distributed generation is increased.
Cost-Benefit
Study of the Proposed GridFlorida RTO
Written by Kojo Ofori-Atta, Judah Rose, Chris McCarthy, Himali Parmar, Ken
Collison, Shanthi Muthiah, and Elliot Roseman of ICF International, December 12,
2005. This study prepared for GridFlorida
LLC examines the benefits and costs
to peninsular Florida consumers of a GridFlorida Regional Transmission Organization
(RTO) under two possible centralized modes of operation: a Day-1 RTO and a
Day-2 RTO. The overall outcome of net benefits to peninsular Florida consumers
depends on both quantitative and qualitative aspects of the RTO structure and
start-up costs. The combined benefits of a "Greenfield" Day-1
RTO with all new systems and physical facilities are not nearly as large as
the costs. In the case of a Day-2 RTO, although the quantified benefits were
almost US$1 billion, the cost of a Greenfield Day-2 RTO was approximately 28
percent higher. Thus if the qualitative Day-2 RTO benefits are worth approximately
US$285 million, then the proposed GridFlorida RTO could break even.
Beyond Energy Efficiency
Published in Today’s Lighting Distributor, November/December
2005, by Jeffrey Schwartz of ICF International. The article
explains how businesses can reduce energy costs by upgrading
lighting systems to more energy-efficient technology, providing
a quick payback on their investment. To assure that end users
are provided with quality lighting solutions, lighting practitioners
must evaluate other important lighting criteria and follow
the guidelines of good lighting design.
Leading the Charge
Published in Progressive Grocer's October 2005 issue
by Peter Flippen of ICF International, the article highlights
the launch of an initiative developed by the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) ENERGY STAR program in partnership
with top energy information services companies. The initiative
allows energy information providers to send their client's
energy consumption data for buildings via the Internet to
the EPA. In return, the EPA analyzes the data and produces
a building energy performance rating on a 1-100 scale with
50 being the national average. The article describes the
early adoption of this unique benchmarking service by two
leading companies, Avista Advantage and Cadence Network,
on behalf of their clients, Food Lion and SuperValu. ICF International is the lead contractor to EPA for ENERGY STAR.
The Energy Policy Act of 2005: Striking the Right Federal-State
Balance
Published in World-Generation,
September/October 2005, by Elliot Roseman of ICF International.
This article addresses the balance of responsibility and
authority between the U.S. federal and state energy regulators,
and how that balance is changing as a result of the Energy
Policy Act of 2005. In particular, the article cites five
examples: electric transmission "backstop
authority";
LNG siting; system reliability; grid monitoring; and financial
incentives, and demonstrates that the federal government
is charged with a notably larger role under this legislation.
Maintenance Strategy Yields Big Savings
Published in H&MM (Hotel and Motel Management),
September 19, 2005, by Bruce Appelbaum of ICF International
and Stuart Brodsky of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
Simple maintenance strategies that can achieve significant
improvements in hotel and motel energy efficiency are described.
Focusing on good maintenance practices can yield energy savings
of more than 20 percent, often with little or no capital
expenditure.
Transmission Turns the Corner
Published in EEI
Electric Perspectives, September/October
2005, by Elliot Roseman of ICF International. Transmission has
been a stepchild of the power industry—until recently.
There now appears to be sufficient political, economic, and
regulatory forces in play; sufficient recent investment activity;
and sufficient dynamism in the market to make it likely that
adequate transmission facilities will be developed going
forward. Factors such as integrated resource planning (IRP),
regional transmission organizations (RTO), renewable energy,
and baseload energy development will all encourage transmission,
and there are six different models of transmission development
that are active in the market. The recently-passed Energy
Policy Act gives a further
push to grid expansion. Gaining approval to site transmission
is far from easy, but nevertheless, it appears that transmission
has turned the corner.
Rebuilding
After Hurricane Katrina: Smart Energy Choices
October 25,
2005 - ICF International's issue paper suggests energy efficiency
thresholds for reconstructing thousands of homes in the Gulf
Coast region damaged by Hurricane Katrina. After modeling
different levels of energy efficiency using DOE-2 software,
ICF International compared the impacts of a mass reconstruction
built to minimum building codes versus four increasingly
more energy-efficient standards, finding that an initial
investment of US$900 million to efficiently rebuild the
destroyed homes in the states of Louisiana, Mississippi,
and Alabama would have a payback of just 7.5 years—much
less than the term of a typical mortgage.
Petroleum
Refineries: Will Record Profits Spur Investment in New
Capacity?
Testimony before the House Government Reform Committee, Subcommittee on Energy
and Resources, U.S. House of Representatives, October 19, 2005. At the request
of the Committee, ICF International provided testimony on the outlook
for global refinery capacity investment, and the impact
of refining investment on U.S. imports over the next five
years. ICF International's analysis indicates that the global
refinery spare capacity will remain very tight over the period,
barring a significant abatement of global oil demand growth.
The testimony discusses this outlook and the impact on U.S.
product imports, and provides several recommendations for
legislative actions which would moderate the tight supply
balance outlook.
Demand Management: A Real Option?
Real options is providing new ways of incorporating uncertainty
into the appraisal of investment opportunities. In this
new Water Markets Perspective, Scott Reid of ICF International
explores the use of real options in water resource planning.
With this approach the benefits of demand management and
water conservation measures can be viewed in a new light.
Does Size Matter? Investigating Economies of Scale in the
Water Industry
The worldwide drive to improve the efficiency of delivering
water and wastewater services is focusing attention on the
most appropriate size for water utilities. In this new Water
Markets Perspective, Scott Reid of ICF International reports
the findings of a recent study of water industry structure
in England and Wales. The article considers the potential
implications of the study for future mergers in the UK water
sector.
Water
Markets: Regulation Matters, October 2005
Regulation Matters is the regular digest
of water markets news and views from the London office
of ICF International. It provides coverage of topical issues
in water markets and
the latest ICF International insights and perspectives into
regulatory developments.
U.S. Energy Policy Act Issue Papers
ICF International developed a series of issue papers
for energy market participants and the regulatory community
to provide perspective on the impacts of the Energy Act.
The
Impacts of Public Utility Holding Company Act (PUHCA)
Repeal
The repeal of PUHCA in the Energy
Act will facilitate mergers and acquisitions
(M&A) in the electric
utility industry. More companies will soon propose to combine
with other utilities, in addition to three such proposals
currently under consideration. Strong European companies
and nontraditional investors may use this opportunity to
purchase or co-invest in U.S. utilities. The U.S. Security
and Exchange Commission's (SEC)
traditional role in reviewing such proposals is gone, as
is the requirement for utility combinations to be contiguous
or interconnected. However, M&A approval or success is
not assured, as state approval for M&A will still be
required, and both the states and the U.S. Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission (FERC) are granted additional authority
to review utilities’ books
and records to ensure financial integrity and nonabuse of
market power. How that authority is implemented will be critical.
Development
of Petroleum Resources
Whether there will
be more refineries and domestic oil production depends
on industry’s response to the Energy Act’s
incentives. In addition to financial incentives, the Act
requires an inventory of offshore resources, which signals
the starting point for future offshore oil and gas leasing,
exploration and production in areas currently off limits
to leasing and drilling. The Act also enhances the ability
to site new offshore pipelines in the Gulf region. ICF International
projects that the United States will become substantially
more dependent on the import of petroleum products in the
coming decades—with
imports more than doubling.
Energy
Project Siting and Infrastructure Development
Major energy facilities will be easier to site.
The Energy Act encourages the siting and development of energy
facilities and resources by providing financial incentives
and granting new authority to the U.S. Federal Government.
In light of these incentives and the current level of oil and
gas prices, efforts are likely to accelerate to find and produce
marginal domestic resources. Federal authority for liquefied
natural gas (LNG) siting could be a key factor in encouraging
such projects. Those with pending LNG and oil and gas opportunities
should maximize the development and production of resources
that qualify for the new investment incentives.
The
Impacts on Nuclear Power
Nuclear energy is encouraged
in the Energy Act. Tax credits and loan guarantees are provided
for thousands of megawatts and could substantially lower the
cost of those plants to consumers. Provisions for nuclear energy
research and development demonstrate a renewed commitment from
the U.S. Federal Government to next-generation facilities.
Public opposition will inevitably accompany any proposal to
build new nuclear facilities, but those concerns will be handled
through the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) streamlined
licensing process. As with all power plants—especially
nuclear ones—security issues will loom large.
Provisions
for Electric Transmission
Transmission receives
a strong push in the Energy Act. The Act allows the U.S. Department
of Energy (DOE) to designate transmission corridors of 'national
interest' to
upgrade or add transmission for reliability or economic purposes.
The "economic" aspect
of this authority will be controversial. If states do not
act, FERC could then require the development of transmission
in those corridors. This authority will also make it harder
for public interest and environmental groups to delay the
approval of power lines. The Act also promotes transmission
by requiring the setting of common nationwide standards for
electric reliability, the setting of incentive rates for
transmission, and the creation of a national organization
that will monitor the status of the grid. All these measures
imply a shift of authority from the states either to the
federal government or in the case of siting, to multi-state
compacts.
The
Impacts on Renewable Energy
Renewables are strongly
encouraged, and there is a window of opportunity to pursue
them. The Act provides for substantial production tax credits
(1.8 cents per kWh) for many renewable energy options for nine
years, if they are on-line by the end of 2007. On the other
hand, the Act does not provide for a national renewable portfolio
standard (RPS)—which
would have had significant impacts, particularly on the development
of new wind projects.
The
Impacts on Energy Efficiency
Energy efficiency
(EE) is given a strong push. The EE provisions in the Energy
Act will establish new efficiency standards
for a wide range of appliances. It also will make it easier
for the U.S. Federal Government to run voluntary EE programs.
Hybrid vehicle tax credits will enhance awareness of and interest
in hybrid vehicles. New home builder tax credits will enhance
a builder's
ability to manufacture more efficient homes. Appliance manufacturer
tax credits may encourage those that build such devices to
push the envelope of energy savings potential. Such measures
could save 1.5 percent of U.S. energy consumption.
The Impacts of Clean Coal and Gasification Incentives
As
a result of the incentives in the Act, the first few clean-coal
and gasification projects will be in a strong position to
come to fruition, and those pursuing such projects should
accelerate their development efforts. The Act provides substantial
amounts in direct grants, loan guarantees and accelerated
depreciation, divided among different technologies and types
of fuel, to make this option a reality. By encouraging reductions
in the level of emissions, these incentives (and the target
emission reductions in the Act) will provide part of the
response the U.S. can give to critics of its position on
global warming.
Saving Oil in a Hurry
Published by the Organization for Economic Cooperation
and Development, ©2005. ICF International co-authored a detailed
study for the International Energy Agency (IEA), which
the IEA turned into a book. The study
analyzed a number of immediate demand measures that can significantly
reduce both the increased cost of gasoline and the macro-economic
losses of long gas lines, freight system disruption, rationing/allocation
schemes, and more. Multiple variations of each of the approaches
were analyzed to quantify how much petroleum they could save
per day.
In aggregate, a comprehensive program of the emergency approaches
could reduce U.S. gasoline demand by as much as 18 percent
over the limited duration of a crisis.
The
Emerging Oil Refinery Capacity Crunch: A Global Clean
Products Outlook
ICF International's Summer 2005 report warns that refinery
capacity investment is lagging global demand growth, and that
high refining margins and price volatility are here to stay.
The analysis describes
the global trends in clean products’ (gasolines and distillates)
demands and shows how refinery capacity has gone from long
to tight in the past five years. With limited expansions or
grassroots capacity on the drawing board, the ability to meet
oil demands in 2010 is very questionable. The paper discusses
the reasons for this situation, and suggests that the United
States—with more than two million barrels per day of
product imports now and sustained high refinery margins and
volatility already—will be in competition with China
and the Far East for imported products. If the refinery capacity
doesn’t
expand to meet demand, prices will be higher, and global economies
will be impacted.
Assessment of California CHP Market and Policy Options for Increased Penetration
The California Energy Commission identified a need to reassess the market opportunities for combined heat and power (CHP) applications and the role they could play in contributing to the State's Energy Action Plan. The use of CHP systems in commercial, industrial, and multifamily residential establishments could improve the overall efficiency of energy use by displacing fuel use for boilers, while at the same time displacing marginal, predominantly gas-fired, sources of electricity generation. This research project was undertaken since CHP could have a potentially large role in supporting California's loading order. This July 2005 report by EEA, an ICF International Company, provides information to help California stakeholders understand the technical and economic potential for CHP in California; end-user drivers and adoption barriers to CHP; cost and benefits of incentives and policy options necessary to realize the CHP opportunity; and technology gaps and R&D needs to move the CHP market opportunity forward.
At What Price?
Published in Carbon
Finance, July 2005, by Abyd Karmali of
ICF International. With the price of 2005-07 vintage European
Union (EU) Allowances for CO2 emissions trading
between Euros 6 and 30, there is considerable speculation
about the potential price for allowances during 2008-2012.
This article summarizes how scenario analysis can be used
to derive analytically-robust forward price estimates for
CO2.
Best
Practices in Carbon Management
Chapter by Abyd Karmali published in The
Finance of Climate Change, July 2005. A growing number of leading international
companies have begun to put in place strategies to address the risks and opportunities
presented by climate change. This chapter from a new book provides some of the
key lessons learned from ICF International's work with around 50 companies among
the Global Fortune 500.
LEDs
for General Illumination: Energy Codes, Lumens per Watt,
and Other Lighting Criteria
Published in LEDs
Magazine, July 2005, by Jeffrey Schwartz of ICF International. The lighting
community needs to be able to evaluate light emitting diode (LED) lighting products
in the same way as any other competing technologies. The author describes some
of the relevant criteria.
Cost-Effective
Methane Emissions Reductions for Small and Midsize Natural
Gas Producers
Published in the Journal
of Petroleum Technology, June 2005,
by Robin Petrusak and Donald Robinson of ICF International,
Roger Fernandez of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) Natural Gas STAR Program, and Duane Zavadil of Bill
Barrett Corporation. This paper outlines methane emission
reduction technologies and techniques that can be applied
to various types of domestic gas production. This paper avoids
a "one-size-fits-all" approach. Instead this paper offers
tested and easy-to-use analytical tools to help small-to
medium-sized producers make economic decisions on equipment
selection and operating practices that reduce methane emissions
and are appropriate for their region.
Methane Emissions and Reduction Opportunities in the Gas
Processing Industry
Published in the Oil & Gas
Journal, June 13,
2005, by Donald Robinson and Vineet Aggarwal of ICF International
and Roger Fernandez of the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency (EPA). The U.S. EPA’s Natural Gas STAR Program
was implemented in the early 1990s as part of the U.S. Federal
Government’s
Climate Change Strategy. Gas STAR is a public-private partnership
aimed at voluntary methane emissions reductions. Based on
adopted best management practices for cost-effective methane
emission reductions, companies who have joined the Gas STAR
Program have reported saving over one billion cubic feet
of methane emissions in the year 2000. This paper identifies
new opportunities for methane emission reductions from the
gas processing sector.
The Role of Energy Efficiency in the Future of the Electric
Utility Industry: A Parable of Adolescence
Published in Natural Gas & Electricity, May
2005, by ICF International's Val Jensen. Energy efficiency has
been part of mainstream utility regulatory policy for more
than a quarter of a century now. Yet in many ways, the policy
and business of energy efficiency is trapped in adolescence,
attempting to adjust to fundamental changes in the utility
industry and a gradually maturing business model. This article
examines the conceptual roots of energy efficiency
regulatory policy, identifies weaknesses in some of the traditional
regulatory approaches, and briefly explores several possible
future regulatory and business models for energy efficiency.
Characterization of the U.S. Industrial/Commercial Boiler Population
The U.S. industrial and commercial sectors consume large quantities of energy. Much of this energy is used in boilers to generate steam and hot water. This May 2005 report by EEA, an ICF International Company, characterizes the boilers in the industrial and commercial sector in terms of number of units, aggregate capacity, unit capacity, primary fuel, application, and regional distribution. The report also includes analysis of boiler fuel consumption and the age of boiler units. It does not include an inventory of individual boilers.
Putting
U.S. "Market Power" Tests Into Perspective
Published in ICF International's Perspectives, a quarterly report that provides
executive briefs on key insights and perspectives, Spring/Summer 2005.
The
Worldwide Oil Market: Are High Oil Prices Here to Stay?
Published in ICF International's Perspectives, a quarterly report that provides
executive briefs on key insights and perspectives, Spring/Summer 2005.
States
Move Forward to Control CO2 Emissions
Published in ICF International's Perspectives, a quarterly report that provides
executive briefs on key insights and perspectives, Spring/Summer 2005.
Analyzing
the Price of Carbon in 2008-2012: Its Widespread Impacts
Published in ICF International's Perspectives, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Spring/Summer 2005.
Creating
a Winning Demand Side Management (DSM) Program
Published in ICF International's Perspectives, a quarterly report that provides
executive briefs on key insights and perspectives, Spring/Summer 2005.
The U.S.
EPA's New Clean Air Rules: Impact on Market Participants
Published in ICF International's Perspectives, a quarterly report that provides
executive briefs on key insights and perspectives, Spring/Summer 2005.
Providing EPA's Energy Performance Rating Through Commercial
Third Party Hosts
Published on-line in Energy Central
- EnergyPulse, April
29, 2005, by Bill von Neida of the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency’s (EPA) and Sarah O'Connell of
ICF International. This paper presents the EPA's approach to
providing the national energy performance rating system through
commercial third party hosts. While the energy performance
rating system has been successfully introduced and accepted
into the market, a broader application is now being explored.
EPA is now working with commercial energy information vendors
to automate benchmarking. By automating the process, it becomes
more realistic for organizations with large portfolios to
assess their opportunities for improvement, prioritize upgrades
across their portfolios, and realize significant financial
and environmental savings.
Clearer Signals Ahead
Published in Energy Risk Magazine, April 2005, by Abyd Karmali,
Sebastian Foot, and Nazim Osmanick of ICF International. Each
year has seen a new stage of maturity in the global markets
for carbon emissions. Market analysts now face the analytical
challenge of incorporating a price of carbon into their
investment appraisals. This article provides perspective
on the dynamics of carbon supply and demand during the
first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012)
and suggests implications for what the price of CO2 might
be.
The
Price of Carbon in 2008-2012: Scenarios for Investment
Appraisal
ICF International has developed a comprehensive report based on a fundamental
analysis to forecast CO2 prices under several scenarios. Grounded
in leading-edge analysis, the study was developed using sector- and country-specific
marginal abatement cost curves for all gases and our proprietary tool, the Integrated
Planning Model (IPM®), a dynamic, linear, integrated model of the power
sector that has supported more than 100 Gigawatts (GW) of power market investments
in the last four years alone.
Will
the Combustion Plant Directive Ignite Trading?
Published in Environmental
Finance, April 2005, by Kim Keats Martínez of ICF International.
Despite the success of U.S. cap-and-trade schemes in reducing the cost of NOx and
SO2 reductions, Europe's power sector seems less inclined to embrace
trading. The article reviews the limited experience with NOx and
SO2 emissions certificate trading in Europe and whether the European
Union's Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCDP)—which sets Emission Limit
Values (ELV) starting in 2008—will boost implementation of National Emissions
Reduction Plans (NERP) for member states.
Indian
Power Sector—Emerging
Challenges to Growth
World
Power 2005 Edition, by Sandeep Kumar,
Anurag Khetan, and Bishal Thapa, who are with the New
Delhi, India, office of ICF International. With a critical
mass of progress in regulatory reforms and soaring economic
growth, the Indian power sector is now primed for take off.
Over the next ten years, the sector will need US$200 billion
in new investments. How India deals with the remaining challenges
of the restructuring process and emerging fuel shortages will
dictate what happens in the years to come.
Emissions
Trading: Aviation's Next Steps
Published in Environmental
Finance, December 2004/January 2005, by Abyd Karmali of ICF International.
The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) recently resolved to permit
the aviation sector to be included in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trading
schemes. This article explores some of the complex technical, economic, and
competitive implications of including aviation in the European Union Emissions
Trading Scheme (ETS). Read about ICF International's study
for ICAO on options for an emissions trading system in the aviation sector.
2004 Articles
Generation Asset Valuation: Are We at the Nadir for Gas-Fired
Power Plants?
Published in Electric
Light & Power, November/December
2004, by Shanthi Muthiah of ICF International. Some recent transactions
have implied very low values for merchant gas-fired power plants.
Is this likely to continue or are are markets likely to turnaround?
This article discusses some drivers of the loss in value of
natural gas power plants. The article also provides a view
and the basis for why many markets are likely to turn around
in the next few years, with signs of this turnaround anticipated
in the next 24 to 36 months.
Judging
the Quality of a Lighting Project
Published in Today's Lighting Distributor,
November/December 2004, by Jeffrey Schwartz of ICF International.
The first in a series of five articles on energy-efficient
lighting projects explains efficacy, efficiency, watts per
square foot, life-cycle cost tools, and how they relate to
energy efficiency and the quality of a lighting project.
The article explains how lamp efficacy and fixture efficiency
must both be considered when evaluating a project, and how
to use watts per square foot as a true measure of the project's
energy efficiency.
Serving
Up Savings with ENERGY STAR® Qualified
Commercial Foodservice Equipment
Published in OutFront Magazine, Fall
2004, by Mehernaz Polad of ICF International. This article is
targeted towards manufacturers' representatives for foodservice
equipment, providing information on the benefits of ENERGY
STAR® qualified
equipment versus standard equipment. The article contains general
information about ENERGY STAR®,
which foodservice products are currently eligible to qualify
under the program, monetary savings associated with the products,
and how manufacturers would benefit from joining the program.
Profiting from Transmission Investment: A Holistic Approach
to Cost-Benefit Analysis
Published in Public
Utilities Fortnightly,
October 2004, by Kojo Ofori-Atta, Elliot Roseman, and Bansari
Saha of ICF International, and Scott Stuart, Marc Lipschultz,
and Jonathan Smidt of KKR. Many prognosticators have indicated
that more electric transmission investment is required, particularly
in light of North America's major blackout in 2004, but how
much investment is appropriate? How much is needed to maintain
reliability, and how much to lower the wholesale cost of power?
This article evaluates the optimal level of transmission
investment over an extended period (2004-2030), accounting
for alternative investments to meet load. The analysis
finds the "right" amount
to be about $60 billion in nominal dollars overall ($43 billion
in net present value), with about $12 billion of that amount
($8 billion NPV) used to lower the cost of power.
Environmental
Concerns Shape the Future: Kim Keats, ICF International,
UK, Considers the Potential Impact of CO2 Allowances
on the Coal Industry
Published in World Coal, October 2004. ICF International’s
Kim Keats Martínez considers the impact of new environmental
legislation on the use of coal for power generation in Europe.
This article focuses on the impact of three key initiatives:
the European Union’s carbon dioxide (CO2)
emissions certificate trading scheme, toughening restrictions
on emissions of sulphur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen
oxides (NOx),
and the growing role of renewables.
Are
We Better Off?
Written by Elliot Roseman
of ICF International and published in World-Generation, September/October
2004. This article assesses the pluses and minuses of the actions taken to
improve the reliability of the power grid one year after the major August 2003
blackout that affected more than 50 million people in the Midwest and Northeastern
parts of the United States and Canada. In specific, the article identifies
more than a dozen areas of both positive action and not-so-positive inaction
to address the question of whether we are better off now than we were on August
13, 2003. The answer is decidedly mixed to date. The article provides a number
of recommendations (including more joint state consideration of transmission
lines, the creation of more stand-alone transmission entities, the incorporation
of "value
of lost load" into the assessment of transmission additions,
etc.) for how to improve where we stand.
Becoming an ENERGY STAR® Partner
Published in Today's Lighting Distributor,
September/October 2004, by Jeffrey Schwartz. This article
explains to distributors the benefits of becoming an ENERGY STAR® partner—including
increasing sales and profits—and how to participate
in the voluntary program developed by the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency and U.S. Department of Energy to identify
quality products that save energy and protect the environment.
Asia: One Region, Many Markets
Published in Commodities
Now, September 2004. A joint piece
by Whitman Fulton, Neil Cornelius, Kim Keats, and Abyd Karmali
of ICF International, this article aims to breakdown the myth
of the monolithic "Asian" energy market and in
its place offer a point-by-point summary of energy markets
in four of the region’s
major economies: China, Japan, South Korea, and India. To
help illustrate the differences between the markets, the
authors present an index ranking each in terms of key indicators
such as growth, liberalization, supply diversity, and access.
Allocation
of Carbon Emission Certificates in the Power Sector:
How Generators Profit from Grandfathered Rights
Written by Kim Keats Martínez of ICF International
and Karsten Neuhoff of the Department of Applied Economics
(DAE), University of Cambridge, as part of the Cambridge-MIT
(CMI) Electricity Project, DAE Working Paper Series, September
2004. The authors assess the impact of the European Union's
Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS)—Europe's cap-and-trade
scheme for CO2 due to kick off from 2005—on
a typical pulverized coal-fired power station and more modern
gas-fired combined cycle plant.
ICF International Report Forecasts an Uncertain Heating Oil Supply
Outlook This Winter
The analysis titled U.S. Heating Oil
Outlook 2004: PADD 1 cautions industry
and consumers to prepare for heating oil supply uncertainty
in addition to high prices this coming winter. It outlines
the underlying market factors which are contributing to this
assessment, including higher demand growth in transportation
fuels, more constrained refinery operation and turnarounds,
European diesel specification changes and the impact on imports,
and, of course, the weather.
Part 2: An Evaluation of the Present Clean Development
Mechanism
Written by Sebastian Foot of ICF International, this article
was featured in Environmental Law
and Management (Environmental
Law and Management, Volume 16, Issue 4, 2004, Lawtext Publishing,
ISSN 1067 6058), titled "An Evaluation of the Clean
Development Mechanism (Part 2)." The author discusses
the potential for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)—one
of the three market-based flexible mechanisms of the Kyoto
Protocol, from the project validation perspective. An independent
third party must validate that each CDM project meets the
criteria of the Kyoto Protocol, Marrakech Accords, and subsequent
CDM Executive Board decision. Consequently the validation
process offers a unique insight into the practical workings
of the CDM and its governing bodies. By considering the mechanism
in such a context it has been possible to highlight issues
in the CDM’s development and the implications for other
emissions trading schemes. The author suggests that regulatory
controls should be balanced in proportion to the probable
size of the emissions trading scheme to ensure marginal administrative
costs and maintain strict quality controls. See
Part 1 below.
An
Evaluation of the Present Clean Development Mechanism
Written by Sebastian Foot of ICF International, this article
was featured in Environmental Law
and Management (Environmental Law and Management, Volume
16, Issue 3, 2004, Lawtext Publishing, ISSN 1067 6058), titled "An Evaluation of the Clean Development Mechanism." The author presents the evolution of the Clean Development
Mechanism (CDM)—one of the three market-based flexible
mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol designed to tackle climate change and global warming.
The report highlights CDM's transformation as it matures compared to the original
mandate it was designed to meet, as a tool for Member States to help meet greenhouse
gas (GHG) emission reduction quotas. The author notes that the CDM has matured through
a combination of expanded modalities, reached
through international negotiation and the development of
stakeholder tools, which is leading to increased standardization
of the CDM framework, although at the cost of numerous
failed projects. The article highlights the role
of the CDM Executive Board (EB) and suggests that it is
in a unique position to improve procedures, increase market
potential and establish greater trust with participants. The
article forms part of a larger study being undertaken by
Mr. Foot of the issues surrounding the CDM, which will
lead to further publications on this subject in the future. See
Part 2 above.
From
Legislation to Regulation: U.S. EPA's Proposed Clean Air
Interstate & Mercury Rules Affect Electric Power Industry
Published in ICF International's Perspectives, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Summer 2004.
CHP Emissions Calculator
The CHP Emissions Calculator (EC), launched in August 2004 by EEA, an ICF International Company, is a tool to estimate the net air pollution emissions from a small CHP system. The EC performs calculation for NOx, SO2, CO2, and mercury (Hg). This Microsoft Excel spreadsheet calculates net emissions based on information provided by the user and default information provided by the system. The net emissions are calculated from three primary components: on-site emissions from the CHP system; displaced emissions from on-site thermal production (i.e., steam boiler); displaced emissions from off-site generation of electricity. The net emissions equal the emissions from CHP minus the displaced emissions from thermal production and electricity production.
PBS Nightly Business Report TV Interview
with ICF International
Fuels Expert Regarding Crude Oil Supply, August
20, 2004
Watch the PBS Nightly
Business Report television
interview with Zeta Rosenberg, a Vice President within ICF International's Energy
Markets practice, regarding crude oil supply and whether or not the United States
should extract from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in an effort to alleviate
rising oil prices. For more information, read the ICF International
report Crude
Oil and Petroleum Product Outlook 2004: No End In Sight for High Prices. Note:
To launch the interview, you will need the latest version of Windows Media Player.
International
Opportunities for Cost-Effective Reductions of Methane
Emissions
Written by Don Robinson and Daniel Lieberman of ICF International, and Roger Fernandez
of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), this article was featured in Oil & Gas
Journal, July 12, 2004, under the title "U.S. Natural Gas STAR
Program Success Points to Global Opportunities to Cut Methane Emissions Cost-Effectively." The
authors present numerous opportunities currently available to reduce methane
emissions in countries with large and/or growing natural gas industries. Many
of these options can reduce emissions while simultaneously increasing profits
or decreasing costs. The article quantifies these opportunities, examines emerging
emission reduction markets that can offer an additional revenue stream beyond
increased gas sales, and includes some actual examples of international projects
that will achieve methane emission reductions and claim credits under international
schemes. The analysis is an example of global marginal abatement cost studies
ICF International has performed for the EPA Natural Gas STAR Program, a public-private
partnership with the U.S. natural gas industry.
The
Benefits of Selling ENERGY STAR®® Qualified
Products
Published in Today's Lighting Distributor, July/August 2004, by Jeffrey
Schwartz. Today there are more than 60 ENERGY STAR®® Manufacturing
Partners offering in excess of 9,000 models of light fixtures that meet the U.S.
Environmental Protection Agency's and U.S. Department of Energy's qualifications
for quality products that save energy and protect the environment. This article
explains to distributors how to increase sales, profits, and customer satisfaction
by selling these energy-efficient lighting products, rather than standard models.
What
is ENERGY STAR®®?
Published in Today's Lighting Distributor, May/June 2004, by Jeffrey
Schwartz. This article provides a preliminary understanding of the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency's and U.S. Department of Energy's voluntary program that
identifies quality products that save energy and protect the environment, and
why it is important to National Association of Independent Lighting Distributors
(NAILD) members.
European Union (EU) Large Combustion Plant Directive (LCPD) "Opt Out" Deadline June 30, 2004
ICF International advises coal-fired power stations in EU to postpone SO2 and NOx Controls under LCPD. Falling coal plant utilization under Kyoto Protocol makes many control investments unprofitable.
ICAO
Exploring Development of a Trading Scheme for Emissions
from Aviation
By ICF International's Abyd Karmali and Melinda Harris; published in ICAO
Journal, May 2004. Emissions trading can be an effective means of reaching
environmental objectives while minimizing the financial burdens on participants. ICF International recently carried out a study for the International Civil Aviation
Organisation (ICAO) that examined options for an emissions trading system to
cover international emissions of greenhouse gases from the aviation sector.
Getting
Necessary Transmission Built: The Value of Reliability
and Lost Load
Written by Elliot Roseman and published in 21st Century T&D, Spring
2004. The frequency and the high cost of outages and congestion in the U.S.
clearly indicate the need for more transmission investment. However, to determine
the right amount of transmission to build requires the right data and forecasts.
In that context, this article proposes the use of a new factor for determining
how much transmission to build, one that takes into account the economic cost
(i.e., the lower GNP) that results from transmission-related outages. When
power is unavailable, factories shut down; supermarkets, shopping malls, and
office close their doors; and customers lose the food in their refrigerators—and
the cost of such outages has increased as the economy has become more dependent
on electricity. Regulators and other siting agencies should include the "value
of lost load" (VoLL) in future assessments of whether and when to build
new transmission, and utilities should build or upgrade transmission where
the value in both reduced power costs and increased economic output are greater
than the cost.
Transmission Investments Reduce Power Costs and Improve the Economy
Written by Kojo Ofori-Atta, Elliot Roseman, Bansari Saha, Christian McCarthy, and Jane Valentino. Prepared for Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., New York, NY. A recent ICF International study, sponsored by KKR & Company, shows that targeted investments in transmission, in conjunction with the right mix of generation, could reduce the wholesale costs of power by 1.5 times its costs. Further, if we include potential benefits from lower reserve margins, the benefits rise to over twice the cost. Finally, if we include the benefits to the U.S. economy due to lower transmission-related outages from these investments (also called "value of lost load"), then these investments return more than 8 times their cost. When calculated on a current per-customer basis, the net present value of the savings would range from $30 to $450.
Natural Gas Price Impacts and Implications for U.S. Industry
This report was prepared by EEA, an ICF International Company, for the National Commission on Energy Policy in May 2004. As natural gas prices have increased in recent years, there has been increasing concern over their effect on industrial sector competitiveness, jobs, and the economy in general. Economic declines have been attributed to the gas price increases in 2000-01 and 2003. There is also concern that high gas prices could result in permanent shutdown of gas-intensive industries, reducing gas demand. Such "demand destruction" in the industrial sector could result in lower demand for gas. which could subsequently temper gas price levels and minimize volatility, though at the cost of U.S. productive output and jobs.
Natural Gas Issues for U.S. Power Generation
This report was prepared by EEA, an ICF International Company, for the National Commission on Energy Policy in May 2004. This paper examines the background of the issues and the likely implications related to construction of gas-fired power plants and stringent environmental requirements on power plants. The rapid recent growth and the prospect for continued growth have made power generation the focus of much of the concern over the current imbalance between gas supply and demand. Power generation is the second largest component of U.S. natural gas consumption and the fastest growing gas-consuming sector. For an overview, read the Executive Summary .
Project Summary Report: Assessment of Large Combined Heat and Power Market
This April 2004 report by EEA, an ICF International Company, summarizes an assessment of the 2-50 MW combined heat and power (CHP) market and near-term opportunities for a fixed set of CHP technologies. This size range has been the biggest contributor to the traditional inside-the-fence CHP market to date. Opportunities still exist, and a current understanding of the remaining prospects will help focus efforts that can accelerate near-term markets.
Sector Profiles of Significant Large CHP Markets
This report by EEA, an ICF International Company, describes a market assessment, released in March 2004, of the 2-50 MW combined heat and power (CHP) market and near-term opportunities for a fixed set of CHP technologies. This size range has been the biggest contributor to the traditional inside-the-fence CHP market to date. Three promising sectors were identified at the conclusion of market assessment: chemicals, food, pharmaceuticals.
Electricity Prices: What to Look Out For
Written by Kim Keats Martínez and published in Carbon Finance, March 2004. This article discusses the potential impact of the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) on electricity prices. Keats reviews the major drivers of electricity prices: fuel prices, demand growth, renewables obligations, nuclear decommissioning timetables, the nature of the carbon dioxide (CO2) cap, and the interplay with the price of CO2 emissions allowances. The article also demonstrates the impact that the rules governing the allowance allocation process can have on electricity prices using ICF International’s Integrated Planning Model® (IPM).
NERC's Cloudy Crystal Ball: How Much Confidence Do NERC Demand Forecasts Warrant?
Written by Tom Replogle and published in Public Utilities Fortnightly, March 2004. This article examines the bias in North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) forecasts for U.S. peak electrical load. Replogle cautions independent consultants against allowing forecast bias to influence their analysis of energy markets.
Determining the Share of National Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Emissions Trading in Ireland
Prepared for the Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government, Ireland, February 2004. Based on a study by ICF International and Byrne Ó Cléirigh regarding the distribution of the national greenhouse gas emissions budget, the Government of Ireland decided to allocate 67.5 million allowances over a three-year period, beginning in January 2005. The pilot emissions trading program is the first step in preparing Ireland and the European Union for global GHG emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol starting in 2008.
2003 Articles
Undergrounding of Electricity Lines in Europe
Background Paper by European Commission, December 2003, which outlines ICF International's February 2003 report, Overview of the Potential for Undergrounding the Electricity Networks in Europe. The study examines the long-standing issue of overhead power lines used throughout Europe, given the aesthetic, environmental, safety, and other benefits to installing power lines underground.
Energy
Efficiency Strategies for Freight Trucking: Potential
Impact on Fuel Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Published in the Journal of the Transportation Research
Board No. 1815 (2003), by Jeffrey Ang-Olson and Will
Schroeer of ICF International. Trucking is the dominant
mode of domestic freight and offers a substantial opportunity
to improve transportation energy efficiency and reduce the
emission of criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG).
This report assesses eight trucking strategies to improve
efficiency and reduce emissions through voluntary actions
under the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Ground Freight
Transportation Initiative.
Bloomberg
TV Interview with ICF International Energy Expert Regarding DOE's
Interim Blackout Report Released on November 19, 2003
Watch the Bloomberg News Market Focus television interview
with Kojo Ofori-Atta, a Vice President within ICF International's
power and transmission practice, regarding the U.S. Department
of Energy's (DOE) interim report on the causes leading up
to the cascading blackout in the northeast United States and
southern Canada on August 14, 2003. The report, prepared by
the U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force, confirms ICF International's view that industry reform is needed. For
more information, read our series of issue
papers on the blackout. Note: To launch the interview,
you will need the latest version of Windows
Media Player.
Gas-Fired Distributed Energy Resource Technology Characterizations
This October 2003 report by EEA, an ICF International Company, describes the current status and future potential of six natural gas-fired distributed energy resource technologies through the year 2030. The six DER power technologies are reciprocating engines; small industrial gas turbines (1 MW to 40 MW); microturbines; small steam turbines;
fuel cells; and
Stirling engines. While these technologies are capable of utilizing a variety of fuels in a range of applications, the focus for these characterizations is in electric power and combined heat and power (CHP) applications using natural gas.
Natural Gas Impacts of Increased CHP
This October 2003 report by EEA, an ICF International Company, discusses how recent increases in natural gas prices have raised concerns about the balance of U.S. natural gas supply and demand. While there are efforts to increase gas supply, there is agreement that increased efficiency will be a primary requirement to address the issue in the near to medium term. Although combined heat and power (CHP) is among the most immediately available and widely applicable efficiency options, the fact that it involves the installation of new gas-fired equipment may raise concerns about its ability to reduce overall gas consumption.
Is
the United States Running Out of Natural Gas?
Published in ICF International's Perspectives, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Fall 2003.
The
Blackout of 2003—Viewpoints from ICF International
Published in ICF International's Perspectives, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Fall 2003.
The
European Transmission Conundrum—More Outages Suffered
and More Investment Required
October 6, 2003 - By Simon Allen of ICF International.
The summer of 2003 will be remembered for record-high temperatures
in Europe, coupled with electricity outages across the Continent—most
notably in Italy, Denmark, Sweden, and London. Although the
factors vary, the common theme is that Europe’s electricity
transmission infrastructure cannot support the workings of
an internal electricity market. For transmission to play its
part in a fully liberalised market, a significant expansion
and rationalisation of the European electricity transmission
network are required. Capital investment also is required
to increase interconnector capacity and reduce congestion.
Transmission
Grid Frailty? Blackout Potential Not Limited to the Northeast
Quadrant An issue paper on the U.S. Northeastern Blackout
of August 2003
August 22, 2003 - The result of the recent massive power outage
in the United States and Canada was more than just a loss
of electricity. There is also a tremendous loss of confidence
in the grid. Customers and regulators are asking questions
such as: Could it happen again? If so, where and how severe
could it be? This issue paper concludes that the Northeast
electric transmission system is not alone in its weakness
and recommendes measures to strengthen it.
Cascading
Blackout: Why Wasn't the Power Outage Contained?
An issue paper on the U.S. Northeastern Blackout of August
2003
August 19, 2003 - This paper outlines the competitive pressures
on existing transmission grid operations. The sometimes conflicting
goals of providing reliability, moderating power prices, deferring
transmission investments, and avoiding the economic liabilities
associated with third-party power transactions can cause transmission
operators to take greater risks with the grid than they have
in the past. This paper explains why the blackout was able
to cascade throughout the northeastern United States and portions
of Canada, and not contained locally? Lastly, Phil Mihlmester
of ICF International goes one step further with recommendations
for action to prevent future cascading blackout occurrences.
The
Economic Cost of the Blackout—An issue paper on the U.S.
Northeastern Blackout of August 2003
August 21, 2003 - The recent power blackout has revived the
discussion on the need to upgrade the transmission infrastructure.
While that debate has its own merit, a related and potentially
scaier questions that needs to be addressed is the vulnerability
of our electrical grid to terrorist attacks. ICF International
recently raised similar concerns in a hypothetical scenario
of a terrorist attack on the transmission
grid in California. In this issue paper, we use some of
the insights gained from the California simulation to measure
the economic costs of the recent blackout and reiterate some
of the lessons learned from the exercise.
Power
Crisis: The Omission of Transmission
An issue paper on the U.S. Northeastern Blackout, August 14,
2003
August 15, 2003 - The recent massive power outage in North
America, affecting 50 million people in seven states in the
United States and Canada, stems from the way in which the
transmission system has been planned and developed over the
past 20-30 years. While the specific cause of the outage is
still being determined, the signs of substantial deterioration
in the power grid have been building for years. Elliot Roseman
of ICF International explores the root causes of the problem.
Interview
with ICF International Energy Expert Regarding Major Northeast
U.S. and Canadian Power Outages of August 2003
August 15, 2003 - Watch the CNBC Wake Up Call television
interview with Judah Rose, Managing Director of ICF International's
power and transmission practice, regarding the sudden disruptions
in the power grid and why measures taken to isolate power
grids failed. ICF International warned the U.S. Federal Energy
Regulatory Commission (FERC) and industry leaders of the possibility
of such a wide-scale failure earlier this year and forecast
a 1 in 4 chance of losing power in a major urban area. Note:
To launch the interview, you will need the latest version
of Windows Media Player.
Design
Focus Report: Residential Lighting
Written by Paul Vrabel of ICF International, and published
in Architectural Lighting, August 1, 2003. As the
average home is increasing in size, there is an ever-increasing
demand for more energy-efficient residential lighting. However,
focusing on the technology is only half the issue. This article
examines the many design techniques for the home that will
help utilize light more efficiently and effectively.
Balancing Act: Quality & Efficiency
Written by Paul Vrabel of ICF International, and published in Architectural
Lighting, August 1, 2003. Many utilities and energy-efficiency
organizations support high-quality, energy-efficient design.
This article examines three programs sponsored by the New
York State Energy Research and Development Authority, DesignLights
Consortium (DLC), and ENERGY STAR®.
These organizations are conducting extensive outreach efforts
and have developed numerous materials to help manufacturers,
designers, distributors, contractors, facility managers, owners
and occupants increase their knowledge of energy-efficient,
high-quality design and lighting technologies.
Emissions:
Where are the Traders?
Written by John Blaney and published in Public
Utilities Fortnightly, June 15, 2003. Significant
obstacles stand in the way of achieving cost saving that should
accrue to market-based emissions trading policies. This article
examines the challenges facing the emissions trading markets,
including the financial crisis gripping the energy industry
and a halt in electric market restructuring. As a result of
these challenges, market-based emissions trading programs
must try to function within a patchwork quilt, with each state
operating by its own set of rules. Learn ICF International's
focus on compliance strategies that minimize near-term earnings
impacts.
Measuring
the Economic Costs of Terrorist Attacks
Published in ICF International's Perspectives, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Summer 2003. ICF International and Regional Economic Models, Inc., (REMI) have
been exploring methodologies and models to better understand
the near- and long-term economic effects of terrorist attacks.
This report, which uses data collected from two hypothetical
scenarios, highlights the temporal and cross-sector complexities
of modeling such damages, because the ripple effects across
sectors and geographies may be significant but difficult to
predict. The analysis estimates the direct costs related to
an attack on the California electricity transmission grid
and a deliberate spreading of Foot and Mouth disease in an
agricultural state.
Emission
Assets: Changing the Competitive Landscape of the European
Power Market
Published in ICF International's Perspectives, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Summer 2003.
In
Search of Electricity Transmission Capitalists: "Capex
Conundrum" Facing Transmission Investments
Published in ICF International's Perspectives, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Summer 2003. Click here to read
the full story.
How
Sausage Gets Made at FERC...
Written by Elliot Roseman and published in World-Generation in
May/June 2003, this article addresses the impacts of the
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's (FERC) recently-issued "White Paper" modifying its proposal for Standard
Market Design (SMD) in electric power markets. First, SMD
has become the Wholesale Power Market Platform (WPMP). More
substantively, the article indicates that the FERC has turned
responsibility back to the states for resource planning, and
offers flexibility (not "standard" approaches) for
congestion management and tariffs, while holding the line
on regional market monitoring and independent Regional Transmission
Organization (RTO) boards, among other items. The bottom line
is that FERC has retreated to a position that it hopes will
win approval from recalcitrant state regulators and federal
legislators. However, whether this compromises too much, whether
it achieves the goals of facilitating markets and appropriate
investments, and whether it is, in effect, "whatever
people may propose, remains to be seen.
In
Search of Transmission Capitalists
Written by Elliot Roseman and Paul De Martini and published
in Public Utilities Fortnightly, April 1, 2003. This
article examines the future of transmission financing and
the surprising new sources of private funding for transmission
expansion. With the need for transmission upgrades and expansions
to support increasing transactions, utilities will be seeking
nontraditional sources of capital with interests in transmission.
The "capex" (capital expenditure) gap can be filled
by investors seeking to fund projects with long economic
life, stability, and regulated returns, such as electricity
infrastructure projects. Roseman and De Martini outline the
likely types of investors and what they stand to gain from
partnering with utilities.
Design
Focus Report: Hospitality Lighting
Published in Architectural Lighting, April 2003, by
Paul Vrabel. Vrabel writes about in energy efficient bulbs
encountered in hotel rooms during his energy
efficiency journeys for ICF International. Over the past
several years, compact fluorescent lamps (CFL) have taken
the hospitality industry by storm in response to hotels looking
to reduce operating costs. The hospitality industry's desire
to reduce energy costs is evident by the more than 8,000 individual
hotels partnering with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's
ENERGY STAR®
program, including Hilton, Hyatt, Marriott and Starwood
properties. Vrabel describes how hotels can minimize operating
costs and select the proper lighting to meet their aesthetic
demands.
Design
Focus Report: Retail Lighting
Published in Architectural Lighting, March 2003, by
Paul Vrabel. Whether it is a grocery store, convenience store, "big box," or
high-end retail, merchants have realized the importance of
lighting to help attract customers and sell merchandise.
In addition, many retailers understand the significant operating
cost of lighting and are looking for ways to reduce their
expenditures. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
ENERGY STAR®
program's retail experts state that for grocery stores, "saving $1 in energy costs can improve profits as much
as increasing sales by $80." Vrabel analyzes retail
lighting needs and how they can be met with energy efficient
lighting systems. Read more about ICF International's work supporting
the EPA's ENERGY
STAR® energy efficiency
programs.
Doing
One's Bidding: The SMART Way
Published in ICF International's Perspectives, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Winter 2003. The full article, "Doing One's
Bidding: The "SMART" Way—FERC's SMD Proposal
Brings Back Competitive Bidding With a Vengeance," was
written by Elliot Roseman and published in Public
Utilities Fortnightly, December 2002. This article
examines how fundamental changes in the market plus the Federal
Energy Regulatory Commission's Standard Market Design (SMD)
and Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) initiatives
will soon bring back competitive bidding with a vengeance.
Competitive bidding will not be the same as it was in the
previous "Golden
Age" of bidding from 1984-95, since the demands of regional
planning and SMD will require new approaches and criteria.
Learn Roseman's take on the new bidding approach, which he
refers to as the "Standard Market Allocation of Resources
Technique" (SMART). To be "SMART," bidding
will have several features: it will evaluate the tradeoffs
between all resources, including transmission, generation,
and load management; it may be conducted by new entities (e.g.,
RTOs); it will need to be time efficient; and it will require
new evaluation criteria—and perhaps standard criteria—to
streamline the evaluation process.
Terrorist
Threats Against Energy Transmission Systems
Published in ICF International's Perspectives, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Winter 2003.
Allocation
Promises EU Power Shake-Up
Published in Environmental
Finance, March 2003, by Abyd Karmali. ©Environmental
Finance 2003. All rights reserved. Used by permission. This
article discusses how the European Union's Emissions Trading
Directive will possibly result in the most significant change
to competitiveness within the European power sector since
the single market for electricity in Europe was launched
in the mid-1990s. The directive forces the power generation
sector to begin operating under constraints of greenhouse
gas emissions. Impacts will include changes in the wholesale
power prices for electricity in each of the Member States
and significant changes to the fundamental values of specific
power plant assets.
Quality
and Efficiency Can Coexist
Published in Architectural Lighting, January/February
2003, by Paul Vrabel. Over the years, the term "energy-efficient
lighting" has developed some negative connotations.
However, energy-efficient lighting does not need to be ugly,
ineffective, or poor quality. Vrabel describes high-quality,
energy-efficient lighting systems, which minimize energy
(operations) and maintenance costs while meeting aesthetic
and human visual performance requirements.
Winning
in the European Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Scheme: Insights
for Power Generators
Published in WorldPower 2003, by Abyd Karmali
and Neil Cornelius. ©WorldPower 2003. All rights reserved.
Used by permission. This article discusses a new ICF International
study, which illustrates that greenhouse gas emissions policy
is likely to be the biggest determinant of power plant asset
value in the European power generation sector. Power stations
in the United Kingdom will make more money with carbon emissions
trading—thus bringing the market back into balance and
strengthening wholesale prices. The critical variable that
determines who wins and by how much is the permit allocation
mechanism. Market participants would be well advised to undertake
detailed analysis to ensure they obtain a positive outcome
from the permit allocation decision.
2003 European Carbon Market Outlook
The European Commission’s proposed greenhouse gas emissions trading directive will have far-reaching impacts on the dynamics of the European power generation sector. Players in the power generation sector have significant financial value-at-stake under different scenarios for implementation of the directive. ICF International helps companies understand the financial impacts to their specific portfolio of assets by analyzing prices for greenhouse gas emissions, prices for renewable energy certificates, and wholesale power prices in each of the 15 Member States. The European Carbon Market Outlook can help strategically manage value-at-risk from the emerging European market for greenhouse gas emissions.
2002 Articles
Getting
Out of Europe at Exactly the Wrong Time
Written by Simon Allen and published in Electric
Perspectives, November/December 2002. Just as many U.S.-owned
power companies are packing up and leaving the European
market, the power sector there faces an investment boom.
There are substantial opportunities in Europe, particularly
in generation investments that do not involve over-paying
for existing assets. With their painfully won knowledge
of the European markets and trading structures already
in place, the timing may be right for U.S. power companies
to keep their suitcases in the closet rather than packing
up and heading home.
Unit
Costs of Constructing New Transmission Assets at 380kV Within
the European Union, Norway, and Switzerland
This ICF International study was prepared in 2002 at the request
of the European Commission DG TREN. Its main purpose was to
assist the European Commission in its understanding of the
construction costs of the high voltage electricity transmission
network, which will potentially be applied to cross-border
exchanges of electricity within the 15 Member States of the
European Union, Norway, and Switzerland. The report included
a review of the costs using data from the transmission companies,
regulators, and suppliers, including a review of the impact
of research and development into the cost of constructing
new transmission lines, the calculation of asset values, network
charges, and accounting treatment of transmission assets.
Average
Displaced Emissions Rate (ADER): Approach and Methodology
Prepared by Tom Kerr and Rick Morgan of the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) and Juanita Haydel and Bishal Thapa
of ICF International, April 2002. EPA Climate Protection Partnerships
Division and ICF International have developed a new approach
to estimating the potential for displaced emissions, which
accounts for the intergrated response of power markets to
changes in electricity demand/supply and may be applied to
a wide range of energy efficiency measures and clean energy
technologies.
Carbon
and the Strategic Implications of Emission Limits on European
Power
Published in Power Economics (July/August 2002), Vol.
6, Issue 7, by Abyd Karmali and Myfanwy Price-Jones. ©Power
Economics 2002. All rights reserved. Used by permission.
This article discusses the various implications of carbon
emission limits on European Union power.
2002
European Wholesale Power Outlook
Comprehensive analysis provides an understanding of the dynamics
of the competitive electric markets, based on solid, credible
analysis of the underlying fundamentals. The studies provide
forecasts of European regional power prices and capacity expansion
for 2002, 2005, and 2010 based on detailed modeling of existing
and planned generation units, with explicit consideration
of fuel prices, transmission flows, and constraints between
regions.
Breaking
Through the Clutter: A Strategic Marketing Plan
Prepared for Million Solar Roofs (MSRI), an initiative
to install solar energy systems on one million U.S. buildings
by 2010. The June 2002 article evolved from ICF International's
implementation of a 2½-year-long strategic marketing
plan for the California
Energy Commission that promotes renewable technologies
to homeowners and commercial building owners.
Impact of Air Quality Regulations on Distributed Generation
This May 2002 report by EEA, an ICF International Company, underscores the fact that the air quality permitting process can discourage distributed energy projects that would provide a net benefit to the environment.
Combined Heat and Power Market Potential for New York State
This May 2002 report by EEA, an ICF International Company, illustrates how businesses and industry in New York State that employ on-site power generation with waste heat recovery can dramatically reduce both energy consumption and its associated environmental impacts.
A
Successful Future Forecast for Competitive Power Markets
Published in ICF International's Consult, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Spring 2002.
Consulting
Insights—More Coverage at Less Cost: Are There Mechanisms
That Can Supplement Insurance to Provide More Coverage
at a Lower Cost?
Published in ICF International's Consult, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Spring 2002.
A
Tale of Two Transmission Systems
This is a revised version of a piece that appeared in Elsevier
Science's Electricity
Journal.
Full article published in Electricity Journal, April
2002, by Elliot Roseman. ©2002 Elsevier Science. All
rights reserved. Used by permission. This article summarizes
the five key objectives identified by ICF International to streamline
the wholesale power industry and lower long-term energy costs
through the creation of Regional Transmission Organizations
(RTOs), clearer regulations, ownership consolidation, short-term
investments, and new technologies.
Estimating
Statistical Uncertainties in the Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Measurement and Reporting Protocols for the U.K. Trading Scheme
Prepared for the U.K.
Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs, February
2002. ICF International analyzed and developed estimates of statistical
uncertainties associated with the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission
measurement and reporting protocols under the United Kingdom's
GHG emission trading scheme, which is the world's first economy-wide
greenhouse gas emissions trading scheme. ICF International applied
the Monte Carlo Stochastic Simulation approach to estimate
the statistical uncertainties associated with the protocols.
A
Survey in Volumetric Risk: Key Drivers and Risk Management
Approaches
Published in The Risk Desk, Vol. 2, No. 4, by Paul
De Martini. This article highlights the key drivers and risk
management approaches for volumetric risk. Risk Desk articles
reprinted with permission of the publisher. Scudder Publishing
Group, LLC. © 2002.
2001 Articles
Electricity
Demand Response
Published in ICF International's Consult, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Winter 2001/2002.
Nimble
and Quick: Deployment Using the State of the Art—Maximizing
Returns on Energy Portfolios
First published in Energy
& Power Risk Management, December 2001, by Grace
Lo, Nathan Collamer, and William Pepper. (http://www.eprm.com) ©2001
Risk Waters Group. All rights reserved. Used by permission. Click
here for further information from the Risk Waters Group.
A follow-on article to the article published in October 2001,
this article discusses how the asset deployment model, which
uses stochastic optimization, holds certain advantages over
other similar techniques.
Survival
of the Fittest—Maximizing Returns on Energy Portfolios
First published in Energy
& Power Risk Management, October 2001, by Nathan
Collamer, Grace Lo, Philip Mihlmester, William Pepper, et
al. (www.eprm.com) ©2001 Risk Waters Group. All rights
reserved. Used by permission. Click
here for further information from the Risk Waters Group.
This article presents a framework using stochastic optimization
to develop a strategy for energy asset portfolio expansion
and the operation of that porfolio to deliver maximum shareholder
value while managing risk.
The Retail Risk List
Published in EEI
Electric Perspectives, Sept./Oct. 2001, Vol. 27,
No. 5, by S. Balakrishnan. This article identifies
and discusses several risks faced by energy retailers.
Climate
Agreement in Bonn Leaves U.S. Businesses Facing Increased
Uncertainty
Published in ICF International's Consult, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Fall 2001.
Auditing
and Evaluating Air Quality Management Programs in the
World's Megacities
Published in ICF International's Consult, a quarterly report that provides
executive briefs on key insights and perspectives, Fall 2001.
Gaining
Competitive Advantage From Air Regulatory Uncertainty
Published in ICF International's Consult, a quarterly report that provides
executive briefs on key insights and perspectives, Summer 2001.
Public Power Risk Management
Published in The Risk Desk, July 27, 2001,
by Paul De Martini. This article highlights private sector
techniques that could be used for better public power risk
management. Risk Desk articles reprinted with permission
of the publisher. Scudder Publishing Group, LLC. © 2001.
U.S. E&P Waste Management Survey Results
Published in the Journal of Petroleum Technology, July
2001, Vol. 53, No. 7, pp. 65-67. by Robin Petrusak et. al.
Europe's Lesson in Volatility
by Abyd Karmali. July 2001, Utility Europe, page 9,
Commentary. Find out the three lessons in Europe's early experience
in deregulating and liberalising electricity markets.
Benchmarking
Commercial Building Performance
Published in ICF International's Consult, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Summer 2001.
European
Electricity Markets
Published in ICF International's Consult, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Summer 2001.
Green
Power: An Expanding Niche
Published in ICF International's Consult, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Summer 2001.
Optionality
is Key to California Energy Crisis
Published in ICF International's Consult, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Summer 2001.
Energy and Environmental Policy Debate, Deja vu All
Over Again
Published in The Emissions Trader, June 2001,
Vol. 5, Issue 2, by John Blaney (www.emissions.org).
This article discusses the renewed issues surrounding a national
energy policy and the proper roles of government and the market.
Strategic Benchmarking: Indentifying and Quantifying
the Gains from M&A
Published in Energy & Power Risk Management,
June 2001 pp. 42-45, by Paul Nillesen, Michael Pollitt, and
Kim Keats (http://www.eprm.com) ©2001
Risk Waters Group. All rights reserved. Used by permission.
This article examines the use of benchmarking techniques,
such as data envelope analysis, to help energy firms assess
and determine the potential gains from mergers and aquisitions
activity.
Internet Fuels Shocking Load Requests
Published in Electrical World. May/June 2001, Vol.
215., No.3, pp. 25-27 by Tom Grahame and David Kathan. This
article discusses the implications of the increase for power
demand by the Internet's traffic growth on utility planning,
operation, and financing.
Game Theory: Retail Power Markets Explained
Published in The Risk Desk, May 28, 2001, by Paul De
Martini. This article explains retail power markets within
the context of game theory, a branch of economics focused
on behavior related to interactive decision problems. Risk
Desk articles reprinted with permission of the publisher.
Scudder Publishing Group, LLC. © 2001.
Benchmarking
Distribution Companies
Published in the Electricity supplement of Energy
& Power Risk Management, March 2001 pp. 10-13, by
Paul Nillesen and Job Telling (http://www.eprmonline.com) ©2001
Risk Waters Group. All rights reserved. Used by permission.
This article examines the Dutch energy regulator's approach
to assessing the comparative efficiency of the Dutch electricity
sector and explores an alternative assessment method.
2000 Articles
Marketing Green and Banking Carbon
by Todd Davis, Steven Fine, and Phil Mihlmester (2000).
This paper defines green power resources and offers a rationale
for commodity differentiation via this resource. The growth
and potential of green power markets is examined, with reference
to experience in key open market states. Potential for higher
retail margins on green power products is also examined. Finally,
the paper presents an overview of the complex issue of carbon
credits associated with green power.
Price Spike Reality: Debunking the Myth
of Failed Markets
Published in Public Utilities Fortnightly, November
2000 pp. 52-56, by Judah Rose.
Discussion of the real reasons behind power market price spikes.
Clever
Carbon: An Asset Class Unique To Its Time
Published in ICF International's Consult, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Fall 2000.
Liberalization
and Regulation in the Netherlands: Benchmarking and Efficiency
Analysis
Published in ICF International's Consult, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Fall 2000.
Using
E-Business Solutions to Create Value from Emission Assets
Published in ICF International's Consult, a quarterly
report that provides executive briefs on key insights and
perspectives, Fall 2000.
BP Amoco's Greenhouse Gas Audit Sets the Stage for Industrial Companies Worldwide
Published in ICF International's Consult, a quarterly report that provides executive briefs on key insights and perspectives, Fall 2000.
Best Practice in Carbon Risk Management, Insights
from ICF International
Published in Environmental Finance, October 2000
Supplement by Abyd Karmali, John Marlow, and Craig Ebert.
This study outlines lessons learned in carbon risk management.
Deregulation in the U.S. Generation Sector:
A Mid-Course Appraisal
Published in Power Economics, October 2000, Volume
4, Issue 9, by Judah Rose (http://www.powereconomicsmagazine.com). This
article discusses the status of U.S. power deregulation.
Gaining Competitive Advantage from Air
Regulatory Uncertainty
Published in Energy Central Competition and Deregulation
Update. (Online subscription only newsletter Power Insight
section) Vol. 3, Issue 30, August 10, 2000, by John Blaney
(http://www.energycentral.com). This article discusses
how utilities can gain a competitive advantage from the uncertainty
surrounding future air quality regulations.
Metering in Deregulating Energy Markets:
Issues to Consider
Published in Energy Central Competition and Deregulation
Update. (Online subscription only newsletter Power Insight
section) Vol. 3, Issue 27, July 20, 2000, by Suellen Aldina
(http://www.energycentral.com).
Learn about automated meter reading and how utilities can
use this technology to survive and prosper in a deregulated
environment.
Best Practice Upgrades for Energy Efficient New Homes
by David Meisegeier and Glenn Chinery. Reprinted with permission
from American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, ©2000,
Washington, D.C. Published in Proceedings of the ACEEE 2000
Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 1.187-1.96.
For information about the ACEEE proceedings, contact http://www.aceee.org. This paper explains the
ENERGY STAR® Homes technical methodology used to develop the Builder Option
Packages (BOPs) and the Home Energy Rating System (HERS) scores
obtained for the various configurations analyzed.
A Comparison of Lighting Market Transformation Programs
in New York, New England, Wisconsin, California, and the Pacific
Northwest
by Paul Vrabel, Kathryn Gaffney, and Heidi Curry. Reprinted
with permission from American Council for an Energy-Efficient
Economy, ©2000, Washington, D.C. Published in Proceedings
of the ACEEE 2000 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings6.431-6.442.
For information about the ACEEE proceedings, contact http://www.aceee.org. This paper reviews seven
large residential lighting market-transformation (MT) programs
and aims to provide insight into key strategies.
Crediting Energy Efficiency Measures Under Air Emissions
Programs
by Steve Fine and Chloe Weil. Reprinted with permission from
American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, ©2000,
Washington, D.C. Published in Proceedings of the ACEEE 2000
Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 10.99-10.110.
For information about the ACEEE proceedings, contact http://www.aceee.org. This paper focuses on measurement
and verification challenges that an entity such as a state
would face when trying to design a system to credit energy
efficiency measures either under a cap and trade or an open
inventory system. It also examines several of the tools and
protocol that have been developed to support the crediting
of energy efficiency and renewable measures.
The E-Business Revolution in Energy Services
by Philip E. Mihlmester and Michael McKelvey. Reprinted with
permission from American Council for an Energy-Efficient
Economy, ©2000, Washington, D.C. Published in Proceedings
of the ACEEE 2000 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings
5.209-5.218. For information about the ACEEE proceedings,
contact http://www.aceee.org. This paper offers insights
into the key steps involved in configuring an e-business and
demonstrates how e-business can transform and is transforming
the energy and energy efficiency marketplace. This paper provides
an overview of energy and efficiency related e-business concepts,
including examples.
Millwork
101: Transforming the Market for Energy-Efficient Windows
by Philip E. Mihlmester, Michael Gibbs, William E. Grimm,
and James Stimmel. Reprinted with permission from American
Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, ©2000, Washington,
D.C. Published in Proceedings of the ACEEE 2000 Summer Study
on Energy Efficiency in Buildings 2.201-2.212. For information
about the ACEEE proceedings, contact http://www.aceee.org. This paper describes several innovative approaches to transforming
markets for energy-efficient windows, primarily in the replacement
market but also affecting new construction practice. The paper
is based on actual program and field experience for a major
California program, including lessons learned.
More
Lessons Learned in the ENERGY STAR® Homes Program
by Eric Werling, Blaine Collison, and Jay Hall. Reprinted
with permission from American Council for an Energy-Efficient
Economy, ©2000, Washington, D.C. Published in Proceedings
of the ACEEE 2000 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings,
2.335-2.246. For information about the ACEEE proceedings,
contact http://www.aceee.org. This paper provides an update
on the ENERGY STAR Homes program, including a description of successes, failures,
challenges already faced, and opportunities ahead.
New Product Development: The Pipeline for Future
ENERGY STAR® Growth
by Marla C. Sanchez, Robin Clark, Andrew Fanara, Craig Hershberg,
and Rachel Schmeltz. Reprinted with permission from American
Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, ©2000, Washington,
D.C. Published in Proceedings of the ACEEE 2000 Summer Study
on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 6.343-6.354. For information
about the ACEEE proceedings, contact http://www.aceee.org. This paper focuses on the
efforts of the Product Development (PD) team in the U.S. Environmental
Protection Agency's ENERGY STAR Labeling Branch. The PD
team serves as the pipeline to fuel the long-term market transformation
process by delivering new programs. PD's goal is to expand
the reach and visibility of ENERGY STAR as well as the market
for new energy-efficient products.
The Role of Rebates in Market Transformation: Friend
or Foe?
by Michael Gibbs and Jeanne C. Townend. Reprinted with permission
from American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, ©2000,
Washington, D.C. Published in Proceedings of the ACEEE 2000
Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 6.121-6.132.
For information about the ACEEE proceedings, contact http://www.aceee.org. Learn about a proposed theoretical
framework for discussing the role of rebates in successful
market transformation programs. The paper discusses the potential
attributes and drawbacks of rebates in reaching market transformation,
and a proposed new bidding process to assist in setting incentive
levels and product quantities that are matched with market
characteristics.
The
Success of the DesignLightsTM Consortium: Moving
the Commercial Lighting Market beyond Technology and into
the Design Community
by Michael Mernick, Sarah Dagher, and Brad Kates. Reprinted
with permission from American Council for an Energy-Efficient
Economy, ©2000, Washington, D.C. Published in Proceedings
of the ACEEE 2000 Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Buildings,
6.277-6.288. For information about the ACEEE proceedings,
contact http://www.aceee.org. This paper focuses on the
results of the initial market test phase to introduce and
disseminate the lighting design guides from the lighting
knowhow TM series to the target audience, lessons
learned, and how the experience of this effort can be applied
to other regions and initiatives.
Use
of the UAM-V Modeling System as an Air Quality Planning Tool
and for Examining Heat Island Reduction Strategies
by Sharon G. Douglas, A. Belle Hudischewskij, and Virginia
Gorsevski. Reprinted with permission from American Council
for an Energy-Efficient Economy, ©2000, Washington, D.C.
Published in Proceedings of the ACEEE 2000 Summer Study on
Energy Efficiency in Buildings, 9.83-9.92. For information
about the ACEEE proceedings, contact http://www.aceee.org. The variable-grid Urban Airshed Model (UAM-V) is a grid-based
photochemical modeling system designed to evaluate the effects
of emissions changes on ozone air quality. This paper describes
an application of the UAM-V for the northeastern United States
to examine and quantify the effects of Heat Island Reduction
Initiative (HIRI) measures on ozone concentrations for five
urban areas including Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Baltimore,
and Washington, D.C.
Risks and Opportunities in Retail Electricity
Markets
Published in Energy Central Competition and Deregulation
Update. (Online subscription only newsletter ICF International
section) Vol. 3, Issue 20, May 24, 2000, by Todd Davis and
Suellen Aldina (http://www.energycentral.com).
This article discusses the risks and opportunities in retail
electricity markets and how companies can successfully compete
in today's deregulated market place.
1999 Articles
Environmental
Benefits of Advanced Oil and Gas Exploration and Production
Technology
October 1999. The U.S.
Department of Energy (DOE) issued a report on the
environmental benefits of advances in oil and gas exploration
and production technology. The report was prepared by a
team comprised of DOE's Office of Natural Gas and Petroleum
Technology, ICF International, and Brandegee, Inc., and
details the roles of oil and natural gas in our daily
lives. It documents the evolution of technologies that
discover, find, and produce oil and gas resources—and
describes how these same technologies have dramatically
reduced the impacts of industry operations on the environment.
U.S.
Methane Emissions 1999-2020: Inventories, Projections,
and Opportunities for Reductions
September 1999. This analysis of methane emissions,
prepared by ICF International for the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency, is the first comprehensive examination of the opportunities
and costs of reducing emissions from the major U.S. sources
of methane: landfills, livestock manure systems, natural
gas, and coal mining. Emission estimates are given for 1990
through 1997 with projections for 2000 to 2020. The cost
analysis is for 2000, 2010, and 2020. The report also provides
a methodology for the calculation of emission estimates and
reduction costs, which can be used for similar analyses in
other countries. An article about this study was published
in Science magazine,
titled "Costs
of Multi-Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets for the USA," October
29, 1999.
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